Market Update
Japan's Retail Sales Growth and Tokyo Core Inflation Slows, Nikkei Rises Above 40K
Akira Ito
27 Jun, 2025
Tokyo
Japan's indexes advanced to multi-month highs amid improving sentiment and receding tensions about the prolonged trade war with the U.S.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced more than 1.5%, and the broader Topix gained 1.2%, and for the week they advanced 5.3% and 3.3%, respectively.
Tokyo stocks traded higher following gains in overnight trading in New York after the White House spokesperson confirmed that tariff deadlines are flexible and could be extended, contradicting repeated claims made by the U.S. president.
Despite multiple claims by Donald Trump, not one trade deal has been signed by the Trump administration after three months of chaotic negotiations and conflicting assertions.
Over the last four months, Trump falsely claimed that several key trading partners are ready to set up manufacturing operations totaling more than $600 billion and avoid sky-high U.S. tariffs.
On the contrary, the constant trade policy flip-flops have unnerved foreign investors and frozen possible direct investments as manufacturing companies assess the policy durability and stability.
Japan's Retail Sales Growth Slowed In June
Japan's retail sales rose at a slower pace in June and expanded for the 38th consecutive month, according to a report released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
Retail sales rose at the slowest pace since February, when sales expanded at an annual pace of 1.3%.
The sustained increase in consumption is driven by rising wages; apparel and personal goods sales soared 7.2%, and pharmaceutical and cosmetic sales advanced 4.6%, offset by sales decline in department stores by 6.1%.
Tokyo-Area Inflation Stays Above BOJ's Target Rate
The Tokyo area's consumer price inflation advanced above 3% for the eighth consecutive month in June, the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported Friday.
The Tokyo area's overall inflation slowed to an annual pace of 3.1% in June from 3.4% in May and stayed above the 2% target rate set by the Bank of Japan.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food but not energy prices, slowed to an annual rate of 3.1% in June from 3.6% in the previous month.
The largest metropolitan area's inflation gauge serves as a harbinger to the national inflation trend, and cooling but elevated inflation rates are likely to support the Bank of Japan's gradual approach in increasing interest rates in the months ahead.
Japan Indexes and Stocks
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 1.6% to 40,213.06, and the broader Topix advanced 1.3% to 2,840.84.
Ocean shipping companies traded higher amid expectations that the temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel is likely to hold.
Nippon Yusen KK advanced 0.8% to ¥5,144.0, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. advanced 1.1% to ¥2,058.0, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. gained 0.4% to ¥4,856.0.
Artificial intelligence-linked semiconductor equipment makers advanced following a surge in tech stocks in overnight trading.
Tokyo Electron Ltd. jumped 4.5% to ¥27,575.0, Advantest Corp. decreased 1.1% to ¥10,580.0, and Disco Corp. jumped 6.7% to ¥41,700.0.
Retailers were in focus after retail sales advanced for the 38th consecutive month in June.
Seven & I Holdings declined 0.1% to ¥2,286.50, Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. advanced 1.4% to ¥49,190.0, Takashimaya Co. Ltd. gained 1.6% to ¥1,092.50, and Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings edged up 0.4% to ¥2,205.0.
China Indexes Advanced 3% Amid Trade Deal Hopes, Rate Cut Expectations Rise in Hong Kong
Li Chen
27 Jun, 2025
Hong Kong
China's stock market indexes diverged on Friday after a week of advance amid elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Hang Seng index increased 0.1% and extended its weekly advance to 4%, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index edged lower and trimmed its weekly gain to 3%.
Market sentiment has remained positive despite elevated tensions in the Middle East and looming U.S. tariff uncertainties offset by global investors increasing exposure to stocks in Asia and Europe.
Investors in China remained skeptical amid mixed signals and constant change in trade policy and unverifiable claims from the unpredictable U.S. presidential administration.
Moreover, global investors continue to lower exposure to the U.S. dollar-denominated assets as the world's reserve currency loses its luster.
Traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve is more likely to consider a rate cut at its next meetings at the end of July and in September amid a weakening inflation outlook.
On Thursday, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened to defend the currency's peg amid strong demand for the U.S. dollar from importers and mainland-based businesses.
China Indexes and Stocks
The Hang Seng index added 0.1% to 24,343.83, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index inched lower 0.1% to 3,945.02.
Xiaomi Corp. increased 3.4% to HK $58.85, and the company set the price for its luxury electric vehicle SUV lower than the comparable model made by Tesla.
Internet-linked stocks advanced amid sustained buying by foreign investors.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. increased 0.2% to HK $112.50, Tencent Holdings declined 0.1% to HK $511.50, and Meituan decreased 0.1% to HK $129.50.
China Indexes Advanced 3% Amid Trade Deal Hopes, Rate Cut Expectations Rise in Hong Kong
Li Chen
27 Jun, 2025
Hong Kong
China's stock market indexes diverged on Friday after a week of advance amid elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Hang Seng index increased 0.1% and extended its weekly advance to 4%, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index edged lower and trimmed its weekly gain to 3%.
Market sentiment has remained positive despite elevated tensions in the Middle East and looming U.S. tariff uncertainties offset by global investors increasing exposure to stocks in Asia and Europe.
Investors in China remained skeptical amid mixed signals and constant change in trade policy and unverifiable claims from the unpredictable U.S. presidential administration.
Moreover, global investors continue to lower exposure to the U.S. dollar-denominated assets as the world's reserve currency loses its luster.
Traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve is more likely to consider a rate cut at its next meetings at the end of July and in September amid a weakening inflation outlook.
China Indexes and Stocks
The Hang Seng index added 0.1% to 24,343.83, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index inched lower 0.1% to 3,945.02.
Xiaomi Corp. increased 3.4% to HK $58.85, and the company set the price for its luxury electric vehicle SUV lower than the comparable model made by Tesla.
Internet-linked stocks advanced amid sustained buying by foreign investors.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. increased 0.2% to HK $112.50, Tencent Holdings declined 0.1% to HK $511.50, and Meituan decreased 0.1% to HK $129.50.
U.S. Stocks Keep Scaling Higher Despite War, Tariffs and Federal Debt Headwinds
Barry Adams
26 Jun, 2025
New York City
Wall Street indexes retained upward bias despite looming global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
The S&P 500 index increased 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2% as investors reassessed the interest rate outlook.
The dollar index declined to 97.39 on Thursday and fell to a low not seen since February 2022, amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.
Crude oil prices declined and fell below the levels seen on June 12, when Israel launched its wave of missile attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and military leaders.
First Quarter GDP Contraction Deeper Than Previously Estimated
Closer to home, first-quarter gross domestic product was deeper than previously estimated, according to the latest update from the U.S. Commerce Department.
The GDP contraction was revised to a 0.5% annual pace from the previous estimate of 0.2%, driven by the downward revisions in consumer spending and exports offset by a smaller improvement in imports.
Volatile New Durable Goods Orders Surged in May
New orders for manufactured goods soared 16.4% from the previous month to $343.6 billion in May, the largest increase since July 2014, following a revised 6.6% decrease in April, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Transportation equipment led the rebound with a surge of 48.3%, driven primarily by the 231% increase in nondefense aircraft and parts.
Meanwhile, nondefense capital goods excluding volatile aircraft, a proxy for business spending, advanced 1.7% in May, following a revised 1.4% increase in April.
Continuing Jobless Claims Signal Rising Hurdles for Jobseekers
U.S. initial jobless claims eased to 236,000 in the week ending June 21, a decline of 10,000 from the previous week, according to a weekly update from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Continuing claims, which lag by one week, increased by 37,000 to 1.97 million and advanced to the highest since November 2021, signaling job seekers are struggling to find new jobs.
On the earnings front, investors reviewed the latest updates from Micron Technology, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and H.B. Fuller. Nike is scheduled to release earnings after the close of Thursday's regular trading session.
Commodities, Currencies, Indexes, Yields
The S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 6,110.43, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% to 20,001.56, and the Russell 2000 index advanced 0.4% to 2,145.45.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.75%, 10-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.28%, and 30-year Treasury bonds declined to 4.84%.
WTI crude oil increased $0.60 to $65.52 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged lower by $0.03 to $3.53 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased by $10.42 to $3,322.58 an ounce, and silver edged up by $0.20 to $36.46.
The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, decreased by 0.38 to 97.30 and traded at the lowest level since April 2022.
U.S. Stock Movers
H.B. Fuller Company soared 10.5% to $61.82 after the adhesive maker reported sharply higher adjusted earnings per share of $1.18.
Micron Technology Inc. advanced 1.9% to $129.65 after the memory and storage products maker reported better-than-expected results in the fiscal third quarter ending on May 29.
Revenue edged up to $9.30 billion from $6.81 billion, net income surged to $1.88 billion from $332 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.68 from 30 cents a year ago.
Nike Inc. jumped 0.4% to $61.10 ahead of the athletic shoemaker's quarterly results after the close of regular trading hours.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. inched up 0.2% to $11.33 after the pharmacy retailer reported better-than-expected results in the fiscal third quarter ending in May.
Sales edged up to $38.99 billion from $36.35 billion, net income swung to a loss of $175 million from a profit of $344 million, and diluted earnings per share swung to a loss of 20 cents from a profit of 40 cents a year ago.
U.S. Stocks Keep Scaling Higher Despite War, Tariffs and Federal Debt Headwinds
Barry Adams
26 Jun, 2025
New York City
Wall Street indexes retained upward bias despite looming global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
The S&P 500 index increased 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2% as investors reassessed the interest rate outlook.
The dollar index declined to 97.39 on Thursday and fell to a low not seen since February 2022, amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.
Crude oil prices declined and fell below the levels seen on June 12, when Israel launched its wave of missile attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and military leaders.
First Quarter GDP Contraction Deeper Than Previously Estimated
Closer to home, first-quarter gross domestic product was deeper than previously estimated, according to the latest update from the U.S. Commerce Department.
The GDP contraction was revised to an annual pace of decline of 0.5% from the previous estimate of 0.2%, driven by the downward revisions in consumer spending and exports, offset by a smaller improvement in imports.
Volatile New Durable Goods Orders Surged in May
New orders for manufactured goods soared 16.4% from the previous month to $343.6 billion in May, the largest increase since July 2014, following a revised 6.6% decrease in April, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Transportation equipment led the rebound with a surge of 48.3%, driven primarily by the 231% increase in nondefense aircraft and parts.
Meanwhile, nondefense capital goods excluding volatile aircraft, a proxy for business spending, advanced 1.7% in May, following a revised 1.4% increase in April.
Continuing Jobless Claims Signal Rising Hurdles for Jobseekers
U.S. initial jobless claims eased to 236,000 in the week ending June 21, a decline of 10,000 from the previous week, according to a weekly update from the U.S. Department of Labor.
Continuing claims, which lag by one week, increased by 37,000 to 1.97 million and advanced to the highest since November 2021, signaling job seekers are struggling to find new jobs.
On the earnings front, investors reviewed the latest updates from Micron Technology, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and H.B. Fuller. Nike is scheduled to release earnings after the close of Thursday's regular trading session.
U.S. Stock Movers
H.B. Fuller Company soared 10.5% to $61.82 after the adhesive maker reported sharply higher adjusted earnings per share of $1.18.
Micron Technology Inc. advanced 1.9% to $129.65 after the memory and storage products maker reported better-than-expected results in the fiscal third quarter ending on May 29.
Revenue edged up to $9.30 billion from $6.81 billion, net income surged to $1.88 billion from $332 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.68 from 30 cents a year ago.
Nike Inc. jumped 0.4% to $61.10 ahead of the athletic shoemaker's quarterly results after the close of regular trading hours.
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. inched up 0.2% to $11.33 after the pharmacy retailer reported better-than-expected results in the fiscal third quarter ending in May.
Sales edged up to $38.99 billion from $36.35 billion, net income swung to a loss of $175 million from a profit of $344 million, and diluted earnings per share swung to a loss of 20 cents from a profit of 40 cents a year ago.
Euro Rebounds to 4-Year High Amid Continued Aversion to Dollar-Denominated Assets
Bridgette Randall
26 Jun, 2025
London
European markets edged higher and attempted to erase losses in the previous session amid a shaky truce in the Middle East.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, and London edged higher as investors reassessed the risks of global crude oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz.
Market indexes hovered near record highs, and crude oil prices fell to the level before the start of the Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear infrastructure on June 14.
Despite Israel's overwhelming military superiority, the Jewish nation's aerial bombing campaign failed to dislodge the present government and strike fatal blows to its nuclear program.
The tentative ceasefire is holding for now, but two nations are likely to trade attacks in the near future, amid Israel's vows to conduct additional and precision strikes deep into Iran.
Brent crude oil prices hovered near the level before the start of the Iran-Israel war earlier in the month.
Moreover, the euro edged to the high not seen since 2021 amid general weakness in the U.S. dollar and investors seeking safe haven in non-U.S.-dollar-denominated assets.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased by 0.5% to 23,625.17, the CAC-40 index edged higher 0.4% to 7,589.01, and the FTSE 100 index advanced 0.1% to 8,725.40.
The yield on 10-year German bonds inched lower to 2.54%, French bonds decreased to 3.23%, the UK gilts moved down to 4.46%, and Italian bonds edged lower to 3.48%.
The euro increased to $1.17; the British pound was higher at $1.37; and the U.S. dollar was lower and traded at 80.13 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $0.21 to $67.89 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas was higher by €0.06 to €35.43 per MWh.
Europe Movers
H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB increased 5.4% to SEK 136.70 after the Sweden-based apparel retailer reported weaker-than-expected sales in the fiscal second quarter but guided an uptick in demand to kick-start the summer season.
Net sales declined to SEK 56.71 billion from SEK 59.60 billion, profit declined to SEK 3.98 billion from SEK 5.08 billion, and earnings per share fell to SEK 2.48 from SEK 3.15 a year ago.
Defense stocks rallied following NATO's commitment to increase defense spending to 5% from 2% of gross domestic product but failed to agree on a deadline.
Rheinmetall AG rose 3.1% to €1,791.50, Safran SA added 0.8% to €265.70, BAE Systems plc inched higher 0.8% to 1,853.0 pence, and Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC advanced 0.8% to 923.80 pence.
Euro Rebounds to 4-Year High Amid Continued Aversion to Dollar-Denominated Assets
Bridgette Randall
26 Jun, 2025
London
European markets edged higher and attempted to erase losses in the previous session amid a shaky truce in the Middle East.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, and London edged higher as investors reassessed the risks of global crude oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz.
Market indexes hovered near record highs, and crude oil prices fell to the level before the start of the Israeli bombing of Iran's nuclear infrastructure on June 14.
Despite Israel's overwhelming military superiority, the Jewish nation's aerial bombing campaign failed to dislodge the present government and strike fatal blows to its nuclear program.
The tentative ceasefire is holding for now, but two nations are likely to trade attacks in the near future, amid Israel's vows to conduct additional and precision strikes deep into Iran.
Brent crude oil prices hovered near the level before the start of the Iran-Israel war earlier in the month.
Moreover, the euro edged to the high not seen since 2021 amid general weakness in the U.S. dollar and investors seeking safe haven in non-U.S.-dollar-denominated assets.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased by 0.5% to 23,625.17, the CAC-40 index edged higher 0.4% to 7,589.01, and the FTSE 100 index advanced 0.1% to 8,725.40.
The yield on 10-year German bonds inched lower to 2.54%, French bonds decreased to 3.23%, the UK gilts moved down to 4.46%, and Italian bonds edged lower to 3.48%.
The euro increased to $1.17; the British pound was higher at $1.37; and the U.S. dollar was lower and traded at 80.13 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $0.21 to $67.89 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas was higher by €0.06 to €35.43 per MWh.
Europe Movers
H&M Hennes & Mauritz AB increased 5.4% to SEK 136.70 after the Sweden-based apparel retailer reported weaker-than-expected sales in the fiscal second quarter but guided an uptick in demand to kick-start the summer season.
Net sales increased to SEK 55.33 billion from SEK 53.67 billion, net income declined to SEK 590 million from SEK 1.24 billion, and earnings per share fell to 37 cents from 77 cents a year ago.
Defense stocks rallied following NATO's commitment to increase defense spending to 5% from 2% of gross domestic product but failed to agree on a deadline.
Rheinmetall AG rose 3.1% to €1,791.50, Safran SA added 0.8% to €265.70, BAE Systems plc inched higher 0.8% to 1,853.0 pence, and Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC advanced 0.8% to 923.80 pence.
Europe Movers: H&M, Inchcape, Serco
Inga Muller
26 Jun, 2025
Frankfurt
H&M AB traded up 7.5% at 139.55 krona after the Swedish apparel company reported results for the fiscal second quarter ending on May 31.
Net sales declined to SEK 56.71 billion from SEK 59.60 billion, profit declined to SEK 3.98 billion from SEK 5.08 billion, and earnings per share fell to SEK 2.48 from SEK 3.15 a year ago.
Operating profit in the second quarter amounted to SEK 5.91 billion, compared to SEK 7.10 billion, corresponding to an operating margin of 10.4%, compared to 11.9% in the previous year, respectively.
Net sales in the first half of the year edged down to SEK 112.05 billion from SEK 113.27 billion, net income dropped to SEK 4.57 billion from SEK 6.32 billion, and earnings per share fell to SEK 2.85 from SEK 3.91 a year earlier.
Operating profit in the six-month period amounted to SEK 7.12 billion, compared to SEK 9.17 billion, with an operating margin of 6.4%, compared to 8.1% in the prior year, respectively.
H&M is expected to pay a cash dividend of SEK 3.40 per share on November 12.
Inchcape Plc. gained 5.4% to 718.00 pence after the UK-based automotive distributor released its trading update ahead of half-year results ending on June 30.
The company said it expects a limited tariff-related impact on its business operations.
Inchcape reported continued improvement in the Americas, Australia, Europe, and Africa, while certain markets in Asia are facing ongoing headwinds.
The company has won nine distribution contracts year-to-date, including two additional awards during the fiscal second quarter of 2025.
The automotive distributor guided growth in full-year earnings per share, driven by profit growth and ongoing share buybacks, as £150 million of share repurchases were already completed, while £100 million remained under repurchase authorization.
Serco Group Plc. advanced 1.3% to 196.10 pence after the UK-based defense, health, and transport government services provider released its trading update for the first six months of 2025.
Revenue increased 2% to £2.4 billion from £2.36 billion, and underlying operating profit fell to £140 million from £142 million a year ago.
Overall orders amounted to £3 billion in the first half of the year, with a larger share from the defense order.
The company completed the acquisition of Northrop Grumman’s mission training and satellite ground network communications software business (MT&S), enhancing capability and scale in the U.S. and international defense markets.
Serco guided full-year revenue to improve to approximately 1% due to higher than anticipated activity levels in the immigration sector, as overall revenue outlook was revised higher to £4.9 billion from £4.8 billion compared to £4.8 billion in 2024.
The underlying operating profit for the full year is estimated at £260 million, compared to £274 million a year earlier, reflecting impacts from higher UK national insurance contributions and the conclusion of the Australian immigration contract.
Europe Movers: H&M, Inchcape, Serco
Inga Muller
26 Jun, 2025
Frankfurt
H&M AB traded up 7.5% at 139.55 krona after the Swedish apparel retailer reported results for the fiscal first quarter ending on February 28.
Net sales increased to SEK 55.33 billion from SEK 53.67 billion, ne income declined to SEK 590 million from SEK 1.24 billion, and earnings per share fell to 37 cents from 77 cents a year ago.
The company said sales in March are expected to increase by 1% in local currencies compared with the same month the previous year.
The largest increase in sales in the first quarter was registered in Southern Europe, where the company operates 567 stores.
H&M announced a dividend of SEK 6.80 per share, payable in two installments, and the company's board authorized to buy back its Class B shares in the period up to the 2026 annual general meeting.
Inchcape Plc. gained 5.4% to 718.00 pence after the UK-based automotive distributor released its trading update ahead of half-year results ending on June 30.
The company said it expects a limited tariff-related impact on its business operations.
Inchcape reported continued improvement in the Americas, Australia, Europe, and Africa, while certain markets in Asia are facing ongoing headwinds.
The company has won nine distribution contracts year-to-date, including two additional awards during the fiscal second quarter of 2025.
The automotive distributor guided growth in full-year earnings per share, driven by profit growth and ongoing share buybacks, as £150 million of share repurchases were already completed, while £100 million remained under repurchase authorization.
Serco Group Plc. advanced 1.3% to 196.10 pence after the UK-based defense, health, and transport government services provider released its trading update for the first six months of 2025.
Revenue increased 2% to £2.4 billion from £2.36 billion, and underlying operating profit fell to £140 million from £142 million a year ago.
Overall orders amounted to £3 billion in the first half of the year, with a larger share from the defense order.
The company completed the acquisition of Northrop Grumman’s mission training and satellite ground network communications software business (MT&S), enhancing capability and scale in the U.S. and international defense markets.
Serco guided full-year revenue to improve to approximately 1% due to higher than anticipated activity levels in the immigration sector, as overall revenue outlook was revised higher to £4.9 billion from £4.8 billion compared to £4.8 billion in 2024.
The underlying operating profit for the full year is estimated at £260 million, compared to £274 million a year earlier, reflecting impacts from higher UK national insurance contributions and the conclusion of the Australian immigration contract.