Market Update
Investors Turn Cautious After Weak Private Payrolls Data
Barry Adams
02 Jul, 2025
New York City
Investors turned defensive ahead of the looming trade deadline next week amid a lack of visible progress.
The S&P 500 index edged 0.1% higher, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged 0.2% lower as investors reviewed the latest private sector employment data.
The U.S. private businesses shed jobs for the first time in more than two years in June.
U.S. businesses cut 33,000 net jobs in June following a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, according to the monthly survey released by ADP.
Private employer job additions have been on the declining trend since peaking in October 2024 and now turned negative for the first time since March 2023.
"Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month.
Still, the slowdown in hiring has yet to disrupt pay growth", said Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist.
The annual pay growth slowed to annual rate of 4.4% from 4.5% in May, and eased to 6.8% from 7.0% for those seeking to change a job.
The ADP report is viewed with skepticism because of its volatile track record, and investors are now awaiting the release of June's nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its monthly report on Thursday, and investors are anticipating payrolls to expand by at least 90,000.
Commodities, Currencies, Indexes, Yields
The S&P 500 index decreased 0.02% to 6,196.92, the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.3% to 20,261.53, and the Russell 2000 index declined 0.1% to 2,194.32.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged lower to 3.78%, 10-year Treasury notes increased to 4.30%, and 30-year Treasury bonds advanced to 4.84%.
WTI crude oil increased $0.65 to $66.10 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged higher by $0.06 to $3.48 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased by $2.19 to $3,336.10 an ounce, and silver edged up by $0.22 to $36.25.
The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, increased by 0.24 to 97.05 and traded at the lowest level since April 2022.
U.S. Stock Movers
Centene Corporation plunged 29.5% to $39.90 after the health insurance company withdrew its full-year outlook.
The company anticipates the Medicaid Health Benefit Ratio in the second quarter to be higher than in the first quarter.
Moreover, the company revised lower its expected revenue in 22 of the 29 key markets and estimated the annual revenue shortfall to reach as high as $1.8 billion, which corresponds to an adjusted diluted earnings per share impact of $2.75.
"This preliminary estimate includes a projection of the remaining eight months of 2025 and is based on 2025 paid claims through April 30 from Wakely for the 22 states, as well as the company's membership estimates and morbidity trend estimates for both its members and the aggregate market, calculated by state," the company added in a statement to investors.
TechTarget Inc. dropped 9.6% to $9.56 after the company reported a wider loss in the latest quarter.
Investors Turn Cautious After Weak Private Payrolls Data
Barry Adams
02 Jul, 2025
New York City
Investors turned defensive ahead of the looming trade deadline next week amid a lack of visible progress.
The S&P 500 index edged 0.1% higher, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged 0.2% lower as investors reviewed the latest private sector employment data.
The U.S. private businesses shed jobs for the first time in more than two years in June.
U.S. businesses cut 33,000 net jobs in June following a downwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May, according to the monthly survey released by ADP.
Private employer job additions have been on the declining trend since peaking in October 2024 and now turned negative for the first time since March 2023.
The ADP report is viewed with skepticism because of its volatile track record, and investors are now awaiting the release of June's nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its monthly report on Thursday, and investors are anticipating payrolls to expand by at least 90,000.
U.S. Stock Movers
Centene Corporation plunged 29.5% to $39.90 after the health insurance company withdrew its full-year outlook.
The company anticipates the Medicaid Health Benefit Ratio in the second quarter to be higher than in the first quarter.
Moreover, the company revised lower its expected revenue in 22 of the 29 key markets and estimated the annual revenue shortfall to reach as high as $1.8 billion, which corresponds to an adjusted diluted earnings per share impact of $2.75.
"This preliminary estimate includes a projection of the remaining eight months of 2025 and is based on 2025 paid claims through April 30 from Wakely for the 22 states, as well as the company's membership estimates and morbidity trend estimates for both its members and the aggregate market, calculated by state," the company added in a statement to investors.
TechTarget Inc. dropped 9.6% to $9.56 after the company reported a wider loss in the latest quarter.
European Markets Hovered Near Record Highs, EU-U.S. Trade Negotiators Struggled to Find Common Ground
Bridgette Randall
02 Jul, 2025
London
European markets retained an upward bias as investors awaited details of the ongoing trade talks with the U.S.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, and London edged higher, and the euro and the pound traded at multi-year highs amid general weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Investors are awaiting the details of trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the U.S.-imposed July 9 deadline.
The U.S. president has threatened to not extend the deadline to impose high tariffs, a negotiating tactic to put pressure on the European Union's negotiators to accept a 25% import tax on vehicle exports.
The scope and the level of U.S. tariffs, which are paid by the U.S. consumers, remain uncertain amid constantly shifting U.S. trade policy.
On the economic front, the number of people registering as unemployed in Spain fell by 48,920, or 2%, from the previous month to 2.406 million in June, according to the data released by the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare.
The number of registered jobless people dropped to the lowest since June 2008.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased by 0.5% to 23,788.64, the CAC-40 index edged higher by 0.6% to 7,705.34, and the FTSE 100 index advanced 0.2% to 8,804.89.
The yield on 10-year German bonds inched higher to 2.59%, French bonds increased to 3.27%, UK gilts moved up to 4.47%, and Italian bonds edged higher to 3.50%.
The euro decreased to $1.18; the British pound was lower at $1.37; and the U.S. dollar was higher and traded at 79.23 Swiss cents.
Brent crude decreased $0.13 to $66.98 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas was higher by €0.83 to €33.89 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Fashion stocks advanced after the U.S. dollar hovered near a 40-month low against the euro.
LVMH gained 1.8% to €477.0, Kering SA jumped 2% to €199.64, Hermes International SCA gained 2.1% to €2,342.0, and Moncler SpA inched higher 2% to €50.44.
Volkswagen AG gained 1.9% to €92.90, Mercedes-Benz Group AG advanced 2.5% to €50.61, BMW AG increased 3.3% to €77.82, Renault SA inched higher 1.9% to €40.95, and Stellantis NV edged up 1.6% to €8.75.
European Markets Hovered Near Record Highs, EU-U.S. Trade Negotiators Struggled to Find Common Ground
Bridgette Randall
02 Jul, 2025
London
European markets retained an upward bias as investors awaited details of the ongoing trade talks with the U.S.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, and London edged higher, and the euro and the pound traded at multi-year highs amid general weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Investors are awaiting the details of trade talks with the U.S. ahead of the U.S.-imposed July 9 deadline.
The U.S. president has threatened to not extend the deadline to impose high tariffs, a negotiating tactic to put pressure on the European Union's negotiators to accept a 25% import tax on vehicle exports.
The scope and the level of U.S. tariffs, which are paid by the U.S. consumers, remain uncertain amid constantly shifting U.S. trade policy.
On the economic front, the number of people registering as unemployed in Spain fell by 48,920, or 2%, from the previous month to 2.406 million in June, according to the data released by the Ministry of Labor and Social Welfare.
The number of registered jobless people dropped to the lowest since June 2008.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased by 0.5% to 23,788.64, the CAC-40 index edged higher by 0.6% to 7,705.34, and the FTSE 100 index advanced 0.2% to 8,804.89.
The yield on 10-year German bonds inched higher to 2.59%, French bonds increased to 3.27%, UK gilts moved up to 4.47%, and Italian bonds edged higher to 3.50%.
The euro decreased to $1.18; the British pound was lower at $1.37; and the U.S. dollar was higher and traded at 79.23 Swiss cents.
Brent crude decreased $0.13 to $66.98 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas was higher by €0.83 to €33.89 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Fashion stocks advanced after the U.S. dollar hovered near a 40-month low against the euro.
LVMH gained 1.8% to €477.0, Kering SA jumped 2% to €199.64, Hermes International SCA gained 2.1% to €2,342.0, and Moncler SpA inched higher 2% to €50.44.
Volkswagen AG gained 1.9% to €92.90, Mercedes-Benz Group AG advanced 2.5% to €50.61, BMW AG increased 3.3% to €77.82, Renault SA inched higher 1.9% to €40.95, and Stellantis NV edged up 1.6% to €8.75.
Europe Movers: Topps Tiles
Inga Muller
02 Jul, 2025
Frankfurt
Topps Tiles Plc. advanced 11.5% to 38.01 pence after the UK-based tile and related product retailer released its third-quarter trading update for the 39-week period ending on June 28.
Group adjusted sales were up 6.1% from a year ago and 10.1% compared to the first half of the year.
Same-store sales in the Topps Tiles brand increased 7.3% in the third quarter and are up 4.4% on a year-to-date basis.
The company said its active trade customer base edged up 12% to 150,000 from a year ago, as online sales accelerated from 19.8% of adjusted sales in the first half to 21.9% of adjusted sales in the third quarter.
“Adjusted gross margins continue to improve, and we expect group adjusted gross margin in the second half to be slightly higher than in the first half of the year,” the company said in a release to investors.
The company said costs increased to £4 million on an annualized basis from April 2025 as a result of the recent changes to national insurance rates and thresholds, together with the increase in the national living wage.
The company expects operating costs in the second half of the year to grow at a lower rate than gross profits.
U.S. Movers: Constellation Brands, TechTarget, UniFirst
Scott Peters
02 Jul, 2025
New York City
TechTarget Inc. plunged 12.3% to $6.89 after the content and research publisher for technology buyers reported weaker-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2025 ending on March 31.
Revenue rose to $103.89 million from $58.66 million but fell 6% on a consolidated basis after the purchase by Informa, and net loss expanded to $544.88 million from a loss of $19.51 million a year ago.
The company said operating loss widened to $508.80 million from a loss of $22.46 million a year earlier.
TechTarget guided a mid-single-digit revenue decline over the first six months of the year on a combined company basis.
The company doubled its cost savings in the first year of merger to $10 million, and reiterated its "overall run rate synergy of $45 million" by the end of the year three.
Constellation Brands Inc. gained 0.6% to $167.51 after the alcohol beverage company reported results for the fiscal first quarter of 2026 ending on May 31.
Sales declined to $2.68 billion from $2.86 billion, net income fell to $516.1 million from $877.0 million, and diluted earnings per share dropped to $2.90 from $4.78 a year ago.
The company said beer sales declined 2% in the quarter, wine sales fell 22%, and spirits sales dropped 63%.
The company guided full-year net sales to be down 2% to up 1%, compared to $10.21 billion a year earlier, with beer sales flat to up 3% and wine and spirits sales down between 20% and 17%.
UniFirst Corp. eased 0.2% to $190.00 after the provider of uniforms and protective clothing reported results for the fiscal third quarter of 2025 ending on May 31.
Revenue increased to $610.78 million from $603.33 million, net income rose to $39.68 million from $38.06 million, and diluted earnings per share climbed to $2.13 from $2.03 a year ago.
The company repurchased shares worth $13.6 million in the third quarter, and as of May 31, it had $86.4 million remaining under share repurchase authorization.
UniFirst guided full-year revenue to be between $2.422 billion and $2.432 billion, compared to $2.427 billion, and diluted earnings per share between $7.60 and $8.00, compared to $7.77 a year earlier, respectively.
Europe Movers: Topps Tiles
Inga Muller
02 Jul, 2025
Frankfurt
Topps Tiles Plc. advanced 11.5% to 38.01 pence after the UK-based tile and related product retailer released its third-quarter trading update for the 39-week period ending on June 28.
Group adjusted sales were up 6.1% from a year ago and 10.1% compared to the first half of the year.
Same-store sales in the Topps Tiles brand increased 7.3% in the third quarter and are up 4.4% on a year-to-date basis.
The company said its active trade customer base edged up 12% to 150,000 from a year ago, as online sales accelerated from 19.8% of adjusted sales in the first half to 21.9% of adjusted sales in the third quarter.
“Adjusted gross margins continue to improve, and we expect group adjusted gross margin in the second half to be slightly higher than in the first half of the year,” the company said in a release to investors.
The company said costs increased to £4 million on an annualized basis from April 2025 as a result of the recent changes to national insurance rates and thresholds, together with the increase in the national living wage.
The company expects operating costs in the second half of the year to grow at a lower rate than gross profits.
U.S. Movers: TechTarget
Scott Peters
02 Jul, 2025
New York City
TechTarget Inc. plunged 12.3% to $6.89 after the content and research publisher for technology buyers reported weaker-than-expected results for the first quarter of 2025 ending on March 31.
Revenue rose to $103.89 million from $58.66 million but fell 6% on a consolidated basis after the purchase by Informa, and net loss expanded to $544.88 million from a loss of $19.51 million a year ago.
The company said operating loss widened to $508.80 million from a loss of $22.46 million a year earlier.
TechTarget guided a mid-single-digit revenue decline over the first six months of the year on a combined company basis.
Tokyo Indexes Extend 2-Day Losses After Trade Talks with the U.S. Stall
Akira Ito
02 Jul, 2025
Tokyo
Stock market indexes declined for the second consecutive day after trade tensions with the U.S. reignited.
After more than two months of fruitless talks, Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. appear to go nowhere, as the two sides remain far apart on additional duties of 25% on Japanese cars and automobile parts.
In addition, Japanese negotiators are not ready to relax restrictions on rice and vehicle imports from the U.S.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average decreased as much as 1%, the broader Topix dropped 0.3%, and the yen strengthened to 143.86.
The Trump administration launched a global tariff war in early April, hoping that key trading partners will yield to the U.S. demand of additional import duties and ease persistent trade deficits.
The U.S. trade deficit in 2025 is likely to cross one trillion dollars, driven by the surge in imports of vehicles, food products, consumer products, engineered goods, and intermediate parts.
For 2024, the goods and services deficit rose 17% to $918.4 billion, driven by a 14% rise in the goods deficit to $1.2 trillion, offset by a 5.4% increase in the services surplus to $293.3 billion.
Japan Indexes and Stocks
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.3% to 39,854.23, and the broader Topix edged down 0.01% to 2,831.73.
Toyota Motor increased 0.8% to ¥2,471.50, Honda Motor added 1.6% to ¥1,419.0, and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. edged up 0.1% to ¥342.10.
Sony Group Corp. increased 0.3% to ¥3,670.0, Daikin Industries added 3.4% to ¥17,475.0, Shimano Inc. added 1.2% to ¥20,605.0, and Murata Manufacturing decreased 0.7% to ¥2,102.0.
Tokyo Indexes Extend 2-Day Losses After Trade Talks with the U.S. Stall
Akira Ito
02 Jul, 2025
Tokyo
Stock market indexes declined for the second consecutive day after trade tensions with the U.S. reignited.
After more than two months of fruitless talks, Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. appear to go nowhere, as the two sides remain far apart on additional duties of 25% on Japanese cars and automobile parts.
In addition, Japanese negotiators are not ready to relax restrictions on rice and vehicle imports from the U.S.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average decreased as much as 1%, the broader Topix dropped 0.3%, and the yen strengthened to 143.86.
The Trump administration launched a global tariff war in early April, hoping that key trading partners will yield to the U.S. demand of additional import duties and ease persistent trade deficits.
The U.S. trade deficit in 2025 is likely to cross one trillion dollars, driven by the surge in imports of vehicles, food products, consumer products, engineered goods, and intermediate parts.
For 2024, the goods and services deficit rose 17% to $918.4 billion, driven by a 14% rise in the goods deficit to $1.2 trillion, offset by a 5.4% increase in the services surplus to $293.3 billion.
Japan Indexes and Stocks
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.3% to 39,854.23, and the broader Topix edged down 0.01% to 2,831.73.
Toyota Motor increased 0.8% to ¥2,471.50, Honda Motor added 1.6% to ¥1,419.0, and Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. edged up 0.1% to ¥342.10.
Sony Group Corp. increased 0.3% to ¥3,670.0, Daikin Industries added 3.4% to ¥17,475.0, Shimano Inc. added 1.2% to ¥20,605.0, and Murata Manufacturing decreased 0.7% to ¥2,102.0.
HKMA Intervened Second Time to Defend HK Dollar Peg, Mainland Investment In Hong Kong Stocks Jumped to New High
Li Chen
02 Jul, 2025
Hong Kong
Chinese stocks lacked direction on Wednesday, and investors stayed on the sidelines amid uncertainties linked to the international trade growth outlook.
The Hang Seng index edged up 0.7%, and the CSI 300 index wavered around the flatline.
China stocks have rebounded over the last eight weeks and recovered from sharp losses in April, as the worries of sky-high U.S. trade tariffs eased.
Despite the easing of tensions, the U.S. tariffs are expected to remain near 10%, and Chinese companies are likely to face additional restrictions on importing advanced chips.
Moreover, Chinese companies are accelerating the expansion of their operations in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, and Hungary.
The Hong Kong dollar faced selling pressure for the second week in a row, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene for the second time.
The rate differential of as much as 300 basis points is driving the carry trade, where investors borrow in the Hong Kong dollar and reinvest the proceeds in the U.S. dollar.
The HKMA sold US $2.55 billion and purchased the equivalent of HK $20.02 billion at an average price of HK $7.85.
On Jun 26, the monetary authority sold US $1.2 billion to buy HK $9.42 billion to defend the currency peg, set in a narrow band between HK $7.75 and HK $7.85.
Mainland investors continue to pour funds into the Hong Kong-listed stocks in the first half of 2025.
The southbound fund flows on the decade-old Stock Connect link soared 90% from a year ago to HK $731.2 billion, or US $93 billion, and are approaching the record HK $808 billion of investment flows in 2024.
The steady flow of funds is driven by the increase in liquidity on the mainland and investors chasing Internet-driven stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
China Indexes and Stocks
The Hang Seng index edged higher 0.7% to 24,237.69, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index edged up 0.03% to 3,945.64.
The Hong Kong-based property stocks traded sideways amid worries of a liquidity crunch and a slight increase in mortgage rates after the HKMA's currency intervention.
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. edged up 2.6% to HK $92.40, Henderson Land Development jumped 5.2% to HK $28.90, and Longfor Group Holdings gained 3.5% to HK $9.59.
China Construction Bank added 2.9% to HK $8.15, Bank of China increased 1.9% to HK $4.64, and HSBC Holdings plc decreased 0.4% to HK $94.60.