Market Update
AI, Post-Election Euphoria, and Rate Expectations Underpin Wall Street Rally
Barry Adams
24 Dec, 2024
New York City
Stock market indexes retained an upward bias on Wall Street in a holiday-shortened week as investors reflect on solid gains in 2024.
The S&P 500 index gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3% in early trading amid continued rallies in tech and semiconductor stocks.
In Monday's trading, the S&P 500 index gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0%, and market indexes rebounded from a 2% loss in the previous week.
Benchmark indexes accelerated gains after the post-election results, driven in large part by the hopes of looser regulations and an easier business climate for large businesses in the energy, financial services, and tech sectors.
However, investors are worried that higher tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, are going to contribute to inflationary forces, forcing the Federal Reserve to slow interest rate cuts in 2025.
Investors are also overlooking the policy uncertainties of the incoming presidential administration, and key cabinet appointments are failing to inspire confidence, and top-tier and experienced professionals are avoiding joining the new administration.
Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will deliver on its revised 50 basis points rate-cut estimate in 2025, but policymakers left the door open for a rate pivot if inflationary forces remain elevated.
Consumer price inflation has slowed from its peak at 9.1% in June 2022, but prices are still rising from a higher base, forcing consumers to watch spending and curtail discretionary spending.
For the year so far, as of Monday's close, the S&P 500 index has gained 26%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 33.9%, and the Russell 2000 index increased 11.1%.
President Donald Trump's second administration is going to be just as chaotic as the first one, and government shutdowns are more likely, and staff turnover is expected to remain near record high.
Trump stressed several times, while campaigning for his first and second candidacy, that he will eradicate the entire federal government debt by the end of his eight years in office.
Despite Trump's campaign promises and extreme rhetoric, federal government debt is expected to surge to over $44 trillion, an increase of $8 trillion over the four years of administration, matching his record for the first time in the office.
Consumer price inflation has slowed from its peak at 9.1% in June 2022, but prices are still rising from a higher base, forcing consumers to watch spending and curtail discretionary spending.
U.S. Indexes and Treasury Yields
The S&P 500 index increased 0.2% to 5,985.50, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 19,845.81, and the Russell 2000 index decreased by 0.2% to 2,237.44.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged higher to 4.36%, 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 4.61%, and 30-year Treasury bonds increased to 4.80%.
WTI crude oil increased $0.58 to $69.62 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged up 7 cents to $3.72 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased by $2.74 to $2,612.55 an ounce, and silver fell by $0.10 to $29.57.
The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, edged higher by 0.06 to 108.14 and traded at a two-year high.
U.S. Stock Movers
American Airlines Group declined 0.7% to $17.12 after the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed that the carrier grounded all U.S. flights because of a technical glitch on one of the busiest travel days of the year.
The airline lifted the halt around 8:00 a.m. ET, and about 26 flights were canceled across the nation, but more than a thousand flights were affected, scheduled to depart after 6:00 a.m. ET.
AI, Post-Election Euphoria, and Rate Expectations Underpin Wall Street Market Rally
Barry Adams
24 Dec, 2024
New York City
Stock market indexes retained an upward bias on Wall Street in a holiday-shortened week as investors reflect on solid gains in 2024.
The S&P 500 index gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.3% in early trading amid continued rallies in tech and semiconductor stocks.
In Monday's trading, the S&P 500 index gained 0.7%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.0%, and market indexes rebounded from a 2% loss in the previous week.
Benchmark indexes accelerated gains after the post-election results, driven in large part by the hopes of looser regulations and an easier business climate for large businesses in the energy, financial services, and tech sectors.
However, investors are worried that higher tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, are going to contribute to inflationary forces, forcing the Federal Reserve to slow interest rate cuts in 2025.
Investors are also overlooking the policy uncertainties of the incoming presidential administration, and key cabinet appointments are failing to inspire confidence, and top-tier and experienced professionals are avoiding joining the new administration.
Investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve will deliver on its revised 50 basis points rate-cut estimate in 2025, but policymakers left the door open for a rate pivot if inflationary forces remain elevated.
Consumer price inflation has slowed from its peak at 9.1% in June 2022, but prices are still rising from a higher base, forcing consumers to watch spending and curtail discretionary spending.
For the year so far, as of Monday's close, the S&P 500 index has gained 26%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 33.9%, and the Russell 2000 index increased 11.1%.
President Donald Trump's second administration is going to be just as chaotic as the first one, and government shutdowns are more likely, and staff turnover is expected to remain near record high.
Trump stressed several times, while campaigning for his first and second candidacy, that he will eradicate the entire federal government debt by the end of his eight years in office.
Despite Trump's campaign promises and extreme rhetoric, federal government debt is expected to surge to over $44 trillion, an increase of $8 trillion over the four years of administration, matching his record for the first time in the office.
Consumer price inflation has slowed from its peak at 9.1% in June 2022, but prices are still rising from a higher base, forcing consumers to watch spending and curtail discretionary spending.
U.S. Indexes and Treasury Yields
The S&P 500 index increased 0.2% to 5,985.50, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% to 19,845.81, and the Russell 2000 index decreased by 0.2% to 2,237.44.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged higher to 4.36%, 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 4.61%, and 30-year Treasury bonds increased to 4.80%.
WTI crude oil increased $0.58 to $69.62 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged up 7 cents to $3.72 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased by $2.74 to $2,612.55 an ounce, and silver fell by $0.10 to $29.57.
The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, edged higher by 0.06 to 108.14 and traded at a two-year high.
U.S. Stock Movers
American Airlines Group declined 0.7% to $17.12 after the Federal Aviation Administration confirmed that the carrier grounded all U.S. flights because of a technical glitch on one of the busiest travel days of the year.
The airline lifted the halt around 8:00 a.m. ET, and about 26 flights were canceled across the nation, but more than a thousand flights were affected, scheduled to depart after 6:00 a.m. ET.
France's Public Debt Reaches New High, Stocks in Paris and London Advance
Bridgette Randall
24 Dec, 2024
London
Stocks lacked direction, and investors stayed away in a holiday-shortened week amid persistent political uncertainties and a weakening economic backdrop in the Eurozone.
Benchmark indexes in Paris and London gained 0.6% as financial markets closed earlier, and markets in Frankfurt and Milan remained on Christmas Eve.
Financial markets in Paris, Milan, London, Frankfurt, and Madrid will remain closed on Wednesday and Thursday to celebrate Christmas.
France's public debt increased to €3.3 trillion at the end of the third quarter, according to the latest data released by the statistical agency, INSEE.
The public debt increased by €71.7 billion in the third quarter, following the increase of €69.0 billion in the previous quarter, and rose to 113.7% of gross domestic product.
French government bonds were in focus after the newly appointed prime minister, Francois Bayrou, reiterated his government's commitment to cut the deficit.
However, Bayrou's government lacks appointments from a wider spectrum of political parties, exposing the newly-formed minority government to a no-confidence vote in the near future.
France is facing unprecedented political turmoil with four different prime ministers in one year, no annual financial budget, and several bills awaiting the approval of the Assemble Nationale.
Germany is undergoing political chaos as far-right parties gain in popularity, and the next governing coalition is likely to be short-lived after the general elections in February.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The CAC-40 index advanced by 0.6% to 7,314.89, and the FTSE 100 index inched higher by 0.6% to 8,149.23.
The yield on 10-year German bonds edged higher to 2.32%, French bonds eased to 3.13%, the UK gilts increased to 4.60%, and Italian bonds rose to 3.49%.
The euro edged lower to $1.039; the British pound inched up to $1.247; and the U.S. dollar strengthened to 90.05 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $0.70 to $73.32 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas rose by €0.18 to €45.95 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
China-linked stocks were in focus in Paris amid rising expectations of fiscal stimulus measures and clear implementation plans in China.
However, additional stimulus expectations may not be met soon, as the Chinese policymakers struggle to devise long-term bond offerings and await U.S. trade policy of the incoming presidential administration.
China's finance ministry said it plans to increase spending in 2025 with more support for increasing consumption to boost economic growth.
LVMH added 0.7% to €632.90, Kering gained 0.4% to €236.40, and Hermes International SCA edged up a fraction to €2,303.0.
Alstom SA decreased 0.05% to €21.83 after the French rail transportation engineering company said it won two orders worth €760 million from European customers in December.
Vistry Group PLC dropped 16% to 546.17 pence after the UK-based home builder issued its third profit warning this year, citing delays in completing year-end transactions.
Vistry Group has lost 39.6% in 2024, and the stock has fallen more than 60% from its high of 1,436 pence in early September.
France's Public Debt Reach New High, Stocks in Paris and London Advance
Bridgette Randall
24 Dec, 2024
London
Stocks lacked direction, and investors stayed away in a holiday-shortened week amid persistent political uncertainties and a weakening economic backdrop in the Eurozone.
Benchmark indexes in Paris and London gained 0.6% as financial markets closed earlier, and markets in Frankfurt and Milan remained on Christmas Eve.
Financial markets in Paris, Milan, London, Frankfurt, and Madrid will remain closed on Wednesday and Thursday to celebrate Christmas.
France's public debt increased to €3.3 trillion at the end of the third quarter, according to the latest data released by the statistical agency, INSEE.
The public debt increased by €71.7 billion in the third quarter, following the increase of €69.0 billion in the previous quarter, and rose to 113.7% of gross domestic product.
French government bonds were in focus after the newly appointed prime minister, Francois Bayrou, reiterated his government's commitment to cut the deficit.
However, Bayrou's government lacks appointments from a wider selection of political parties, exposing the minority government to a no-confidence vote in the near future.
France is facing unprecedented political turmoil with four different prime ministers in one year, no annual financial budget, and several bills not approved by the Assemble Nationale.
Germany is undergoing political chaos as far-right parties gain in popularity, and the next governing coalition is likely to be short-lived after the general elections in February.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The CAC-40 index advanced by 0.6% to 7,314.89, and the FTSE 100 index inched higher by 0.6% to 8,149.23.
The yield on 10-year German bonds edged higher to 2.32%, French bonds eased to 3.13%, the UK gilts increased to 4.60%, and Italian bonds rose to 3.49%.
The euro edged lower to $1.039; the British pound inched up to $1.247; and the U.S. dollar strengthened to 90.05 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $0.70 to $73.32 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas rose by €0.18 to €45.95 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
China-linked stocks were in focus in Paris amid rising expectations of fiscal stimulus measures and clear implementation plans in China.
However, additional stimulus expectations may not be met soon, as the Chinese policymakers struggle to devise long-term bond offerings and await U.S. trade policy of the incoming presidential administration.
China's finance ministry said it plans to increase spending in 2025 with more support for increasing consumption to boost economic growth.
LVMH added 0.7% to €632.90, Kering gained 0.4% to €236.40, and Hermes International SCA edged up a fraction to €2,303.0.
Alstom SA decreased 0.05% to €21.83 after the French rail transportation engineering company said it won two orders worth €760 million from European customers in December.
Vistry Group PLC dropped 16% to 546.17 pence after the UK-based home builder issued its third profit warning this year, citing delays in completing year-end transactions.
Vistry Group has lost 39.6% in 2024, and the stock has fallen more than 60% from its high of 1,436 pence in early September.
Japanese Government Curated Honda-Nissan Merger Lacks Success Factors, Nikkei Struggled to Advance
Akira Ito
24 Dec, 2024
Tokyo
Stock market indexes in Tokyo closed mixed ahead of the Christmas Day holiday as investors reassess rate path outlook.
The Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 0.3%, and the broader Topix index edged higher amid rising geopolitical tensions and the uncertain world of new trade tariffs.
The incoming U.S. presidential administration is set to announce additional tariffs on goods imported from China and other leading trade partners, and Japanese policymakers are hoping that Japanese auto and electronics companies may be able to avoid new trade barriers.
Moreover, a U.S. committee could not agree on the level of risks to national security from the proposed $15 billion purchase of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel.
The committee left the final decision in the hands of President Joe Biden, who has opposed the deal, citing possible job losses.
Japan Stock Movers
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.3% to 39,036.85, and the broader Topix index gained 0.01% to close at 2,727.26.
Honda Motor Co. Ltd increased 12.2% to ¥1,432.50, and Nissan Motor advanced 6% to ¥477.0 after the two companies confirmed, in a press conference, the start of preliminary merger talks.
The merger of two companies is likely to create the third largest automaker in the world with annual vehicle sales of over 7.6 million.
The merger between the two companies had to be precipitated after Taiwan-based Hon Hai pursued Nissan Motor to ramp up its efforts to commence the production of electric vehicles.
Japanese government officials have played a key role in urging Honda Motor to complete the deal and avoid the slipping of a Japanese auto company to foreign ownership.
Japan's Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi supported the merger move while speaking to reporters on Monday.
While declining to comment on the specifics of the merger, Hayashi stressed the importance of Japanese companies staying competitive.
"With competitiveness in storage batteries and software increasingly important, we expect measures needed to survive international competition will be taken,” said Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary.
However, the merger between Honda and Nissan, and the smaller partner Mitsubishi, is not certain to create a winner in the fast-changing global marketplace.
Both companies have similar products, are struggling to increase market share in the U.S. and Europe, and are battered by the success of domestic electric vehicle makers in China.
Japanese companies are saddled with bloated management and excess capacity that is likely to lead to 20,000 job losses over the next two years.
Japanese automakers have shown little urgency in developing electric vehicles, developing software capabilities for autonomous driving, and investing in battery technologies rivaling the Chinese automakers.
Japanese Government Curated Honda-Nissan Merger Lacks Success Factors, Nikkei Struggled to Advance
Akira Ito
24 Dec, 2024
Tokyo
Stock market indexes in Tokyo closed mixed ahead of the Christmas Day holiday as investors reassess rate path outlook.
The Nikkei 225 stock average closed down 0.3%, and the broader Topix index edged higher amid rising geopolitical tensions and the uncertain world of new trade tariffs.
The incoming U.S. presidential administration is set to announce additional tariffs on goods imported from China and other leading trade partners, and Japanese policymakers are hoping that Japanese auto and electronics companies may be able to avoid new trade barriers.
Moreover, a U.S. committee could not agree on the level of risks to national security from the proposed $15 billion purchase of U.S. Steel by Nippon Steel.
The committee left the final decision in the hands of President Joe Biden, who has opposed the deal, citing possible job losses.
Japan Stock Movers
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.3% to 39,036.85, and the broader Topix index gained 0.01% to close at 2,727.26.
Honda Motor Co. Ltd increased 12.2% to ¥1,432.50, and Nissan Motor advanced 6% to ¥477.0 after the two companies confirmed, in a press conference, the start of preliminary merger talks.
The merger of two companies is likely to create the third largest automaker in the world with annual vehicle sales of over 7.6 million.
The merger between the two companies had to be precipitated after Taiwan-based Hon Hai pursued Nissan Motor to ramp up its efforts to commence the production of electric vehicles.
Japanese government officials have played a key role in urging Honda Motor to complete the deal and avoid the slipping of a Japanese auto company to foreign ownership.
Japan's Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi supported the merger move while speaking to reporters on Monday.
While declining to comment on the specifics of the merger, Hayashi stressed the importance of Japanese companies staying competitive.
"With competitiveness in storage batteries and software increasingly important, we expect measures needed to survive international competition will be taken,” said Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary.
However, the merger between Honda and Nissan, and the smaller partner Mitsubishi, is not certain to create a winner in the fast-changing global marketplace.
Both companies have similar products, are struggling to increase market share in the U.S. and Europe, and are battered by the success of domestic electric vehicle makers in China.
Japanese companies are saddled with bloated management and excess capacity that is likely to lead to 20,000 job losses over the next two years.
Japanese automakers have shown little urgency in developing electric vehicles, developing software capabilities for autonomous driving, and investing in battery technologies rivaling the Chinese automakers.
Stimulus Hopes Support Market Advance In China and Hong Kong
Li Chen
24 Dec, 2024
Hong Kong
Stock market indexes in China and Hong Kong advanced in the hopes of additional supportive measures in the approaching year.
The Hang Seng index added 1.1%, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index gained 1.3% in light trading ahead of the holiday break.
Financial markets in Hong Kong closed at 12:00 p.m. local time, and the exchange is scheduled to resume regular trading on Thursday.
In light trading, investors bid up stocks in the hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
Moreover, Chinese regulators, finance ministry officials, and local government political leaders are working together to finalize details of the government's proposed fiscal stimulus measures.
Sources in Beijing indicate the central bank is likely to make a raft of announcements in late February with the sale of the first phase of long-term government bonds that could exceed 5 trillion yuan.
Policymakers are awaiting details on the possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports from the incoming U.S. presidential administration in early February.
Moreover, the sustained demand from onshore investors has also supported market indexes in Hong Kong.
In the year so far, Chinese investors have increased exposure to Hong Kong stock by HK $786 billion, about $100 billion, a record annual flow since the Stock Connect program started a year ago, according to data available from stock exchanges.
China Stock Movers
The Hang Seng Index increased 1.1% to 20,098.29, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index advanced 1.3% to 3,983.69.
CK Asset Holdings increased 1.9% to HK $31.60 after the Li Ka Shing Foundation acquired 3.4 million company stocks worth HK $1105 million last week.
Zhejiang E-P Equipment soared 185% to 58.21 yuan in Shanghai on the first day of trading.
The industrial equipment maker sold 61 million shares priced at 20.32 yuan and raised 1.24 billion yuan.
Stimulus Hopes Support Market Advance In China and Hong Kong
Li Chen
24 Dec, 2024
Hong Kong
Stock market indexes in China and Hong Kong advanced in the hopes of additional supportive measures in the approaching year.
The Hang Seng index added 1.1%, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index gained 1.3% in light trading ahead of the holiday break.
Financial markets in Hong Kong closed at 12:00 p.m. local time, and the exchange is scheduled to resume regular trading on Thursday.
In light trading, investors bid up stocks in the hopes that the central bank will cut interest rates by at least 100 basis points in the first half of 2025.
Moreover, Chinese regulators, finance ministry officials, and local government political leaders are working together to finalize details of the government's proposed fiscal stimulus measures.
Sources in Beijing indicate the central bank is likely to make a raft of announcements in late February with the sale of the first phase of long-term government bonds that could exceed 5 trillion yuan.
Policymakers are awaiting details on the possible U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports from the incoming U.S. presidential administration in early February.
Moreover, the sustained demand from onshore investors has also supported market indexes in Hong Kong.
In the year so far, Chinese investors have increased exposure to Hong Kong stock by HK $786 billion, about $100 billion, a record annual flow since the Stock Connect program started a year ago, according to data available from stock exchanges.
China Stock Movers
The Hang Seng Index increased 1.1% to 20,098.29, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index advanced 1.3% to 3,983.69.
CK Asset Holdings increased 1.9% to HK $31.60 after the Li Ka Shing Foundation acquired 3.4 million company stocks worth HK $1105 million last week.
Zhejiang E-P Equipment soared 185% to 58.21 yuan in Shanghai on the first day of trading.
The industrial equipment maker sold 61 million shares priced at 20.32 yuan and raised 1.24 billion yuan.
India Movers: Aurion Solutions, HG Infra, Kalyani Investment, MIC Electronics, PG Electroplast, Vedanta
Arun Goswami
24 Dec, 2024
Mumbai
Stock market indexes edged higher ahead of a holiday break on Wednesday, and the rupee hovered near its record lows.
The Sensex index increased by 0.3% to 78,795.18, and the Nifty index rose by 0.4% to 23,839.35.
On the Mumbai stock exchange, 138 stocks traded at their 52-week highs, and 42 stocks traded at their 52-week lows.
HG Infra Engineering Ltd rose 2.8% to ₹1,500.95, and the company announced its subsidiary signed an agreement to provide battery storage to a unit owned by NTPC.
Vedanta Ltd. declined 3.1% to ₹458.55 after the stock traded ex-dividend of 8.50 per share to be payable on January 15.
The company announced the payment of a fourth interim dividend totaling ₹3,324 crore to shareholders on record today.
MIC Electronics jumped 5%, hitting the daily trading upper limit, to ₹86.68 after the company received an approval to manufacture public address and electronic display systems from the Indian Railways authority.
Kalyani Investment Company Ltd. decreased 1.3% to ₹5,924.70 after the company settled and agreed to pay ₹1.12 crore for the alleged disclosure violations to the SEBI.
PG Electroplast Ltd. advanced 2.4% to ₹974.45 after the company signed an agreement with Whirlpool India to manufacture select models of semi-automatic washing machines.
Whirlpool of India gained 1.8% to ₹1,873.65.
Aurionpro Solutions Ltd advanced 3.5% to ₹1,793.90 after the information technology services provider for banks and financial institutions agreed to acquire the French consulting company in an all-cash deal for €10 million, or about ₹95 crore.
The company agreed to acquire the entire stake in the Paris-based Fenixys with an employee base of 41 and annual revenue of less than €5 million.
India Movers: Aurion Solutions, HG Infra, Kalyani Investment, MIC Electronics, PG Electroplast, Vedanta
Arun Goswami
24 Dec, 2024
Mumbai
Stock market indexes edged higher ahead of a holiday break on Wednesday, and the rupee hovered near its record lows.
The Sensex index increased by 0.3% to 78,795.18, and the Nifty index rose by 0.4% to 23,839.35.
On the Mumbai stock exchange, 138 stocks traded at their 52-week highs, and 42 stocks traded at their 52-week lows.
HG Infra Engineering Ltd rose 2.8% to ₹1,500.95, and the company announced its subsidiary signed an agreement to provide battery storage to a unit owned by NTPC.
Vedanta Ltd. declined 3.1% to ₹458.55 after the stock traded ex-dividend of 8.50 per share to be payable on January 15.
The company announced the payment of a fourth interim dividend totaling ₹3,324 crore to shareholders on record today.
MIC Electronics jumped 5%, hitting the daily trading upper limit, to ₹86.68 after the company received an approval to manufacture public address and electronic display systems from the Indian Railways authority.
Kalyani Investment Company Ltd. decreased 1.3% to ₹5,924.70 after the company settled and agreed to pay ₹1.12 crore for the alleged disclosure violations to the SEBI.
PG Electroplast Ltd. advanced 2.4% to ₹974.45 after the company signed an agreement with Whirlpool India to manufacture select models of semi-automatic washing machines.
Whirlpool of India gained 1.8% to ₹1,873.65.
Aurionpro Solutions Ltd advanced 3.5% to ₹1,793.90 after the information technology services provider for banks and financial institutions agreed to acquire the French consulting company for €10 million, or about ₹95 crore.
The company agreed to acquire Paris-based Fenixys with an employee base of 41 and annual revenue of less than €5 million.
Weakness In Transportation Dented November's New Durable Goods Orders Growth
Brian Turner
23 Dec, 2024
Washington, D.C.
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down three of the last four months, declined from the previous month, led by the weakness in transportation orders.
New orders decreased $3.0 billion, or 1.1%, from the previous month or fell 1.3% from a year ago to $285.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
This followed a 0.8% October increase.
Excluding transportation, new orders eased 0.1%; excluding defense, new orders fell 0.3%.
Transportation equipment orders, also down three of the last four months, drove the decline with a fall of $2.9 billion, or 2.9%, to $95.5 billion.
However, closely watched proxy for business spending, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft advanced 0.7%, the fastest increase since August 2023, and reversing the fall of 0.1% in October.