Market Update

Bond Yields Rise Ahead of Rate Decision, Stocks Fall

Barry Adams
20 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks lacked direction ahead of the Fed's rate decision tomorrow. 

Investors anticipate the Fed to lift rates by at least 50 basis points and sky-high inflation shows no sign of cooling down. 

The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday and investors are awaiting insights to the U.S. economy and future rate hikes path. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes rose to 15-year high as investors debate the size of the next rate hike tomorrow. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes inched higher to 3.95%, 10-year notes traded up to 3.59% and 30-year bond jumped to 3.57%. 

Energy prices traded lower on the lingering worries of global demand and rising supply from the U.S. shale oil fields. 

Crude oil declined $1.37 to $84.36 a barrel and natural gas prices eased 3 cents to $7.71 a thermal unit. 

 

U.S. Indexes Fall 

U.S. stocks lacked direction ahead of rate decision tomorrow. Investors worry that interest rates may have to go as high as 4.75% and stay at that level for another one year before the inflation cools to the Fed's target rate of 2%. 

Interest rates have been rising and staying above the Fed's target rate for 24 months in a row. 

The S&P 500 index fell 1.0% to 3,861.63 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 0.7% to 11,875.12. 

 

Movers: Oxford Industries, Humana

Oxford Industries surged 6.6% to $95.98 after the parent of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer lifted its guidance and announced an acquisition. 

Oxford agreed to acquire Johnny Was for $270 million and the acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive in fiscal 2022.   

The company also increased its guidance for the third quarter and full year of fiscal 2022. 

Humana Inc gained 0.7% to $504.66 and traded at a record high a day after the health insurer revised higher its earnings outlook. 

The company lifted its fiscal 2022 ending in December earnings per share outlook to $23.08 from its previous estimate of $20.30. 

 

U.S. Housing Starts Rise, Permits Fall 

Housing starts jumped 12.2% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.575 million units, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. 

On an annual basis housing starts fell 0.1%. 

Single-family housing starts increased 3.4% to 935,000 units and multi-family home starts surged 28.6% to 621,000. 

Building permits dropped 10% from a year ago and fell 14.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.517 million units . 

 

European Indexes Fall Tracking U.S. Markets 

Benchmark indexes across Europe declined after German producer prices rose at a faster pace in August and Sweden lifted its rate by larger-than-expected amount. 

Benchmark indexes opened higher and began the decline after one hour of trading and fell to new lows every next hour and closed at or near the lows of the day. 

Investor sentiment was driven by the persistent uncertainties surrounding energy prices and future rate size increases, 

Investors are increasingly factoring the possibilities of a recession next year and higher rates lasting well into 2024. 

The DAX index fell 1.0% to 12,670.83, the CAC-40 index dropped 1.4% to 5,979.46 and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.6% to 7,192.66. 

 

German PPI Surges

In Europe, benchmark indexes declined after German producer prices rose at a faster pace in August and Sweden lifted its rate by larger-than-expected amount. 

Producer prices in Germany soared at an annual rate of 45.8% in August after rising at 37.2% in July, the Destatis said Tuesday. 

On a monthly basis, producer prices rose at a record rate of 7.9% after rising at 5.3% in July. 

 

Sweden Lifts Rates by 1.0%, More Hikes to Follow 

Sweden's Riksbank lifted its key lending rate by 1.0% or 100 basis points to 1.75%, higher than 75 basis points expected by economists. 

The central bank also held out for higher rates over the next six months and the accompanying statement added that the monetary policy will adjust to bring down the current high inflation rate to 2% by 2025. 

The central bank estimated rates to rise to 2.25% by the year-end and inflation to hover near 8.6% in 2022 and decline to 8.5% in 2023 before declining to 2% in 2025.    

 

Asian Markets Closed Higher, China Rates Stable  

Asian markets closed higher following higher closing in New York in the overnight trading. 

The People's Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year lending rates unrevised, matching the market expectations. 

The central bank left the 1-year rate at 3.65% and the 5-year rate at 4.3% after trimming rates last month from 3.70% and 4.45% respectively.  

The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo jumped 0.4% and in Hong Kong added 1.2%. 

The Sensex index in India gained 1.0% on the expectations of a jump in consumer demand during the upcoming festival season and the rupee held stable at 79.89 despite the rising dollar.   

Movers: Change Healthcare, Cognex, Ford, General Motors, Humana, MicroStrategy, Oxford Industries

Barry Adams
20 Sep, 2022
New York City

Change Healthcare Inc gained 6.6% to $27.17 after a federal judge rejected the takeover of the company by UnitedHealth. 

Earlier in April 2022, Optum, the pharmacy benefit manager owned by UnitedHealth, had agreed to pay a $650 million fee to Change Healthcare in the event the merger is unable to be completed because of the court

Oxford, Parent of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer Lifts Outlook

Scott Peters
20 Sep, 2022
New York City

Oxford Industries surged 6.6% to $95.98 after the parent of Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer lifted its guidance and announced an acquisition. 

Oxford agreed to acquire Johnny Was for $270 million and the acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive in fiscal 2022.   

The company also increased its guidance for the third quarter and full year of fiscal 2022. 

Third quarter sales are now expected to be $295 million to $310 million, with adjusted earnings per share between $1.10 and $1.30. 

Approximately 2/3 of the earnings per share guidance increase is driven by the anticipated results of Johnny Was, with a slightly higher proportion of the sales increase driven by the Johnny Was acquisition.

 The remainder of the guidance increase is due to strong quarter-to-date performance in our full-price direct-to-consumer channels and last week

European Markets Fall, Sweden Lifts Rates, German Wholesale Prices Accelerate

Bridgette Randall
20 Sep, 2022
Frankfurt

Benchmark indexes declined after German producer prices rose at a faster pace in August and Sweden lifted its rate by larger-than-expected amount. 

Benchmark indexes opened higher and began the decline after one hour of trading and fell to new lows every next hour and closed at or near the lows of the day. 

Investor sentiment was driven by the persistent uncertainties surrounding energy prices and future rate size increases, 

Investors are increasingly factoring the possibilities of a recession next year and higher rates lasting well into 2024. 

The DAX index fell 1.0% to 12,670.83, the CAC-40 index dropped 1.4% to 5,979.46 and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.6% to 7,192.66. 

 

German PPI Surges

Producer prices in Germany soared at an annual rate of 45.8% in August after rising at 37.2% in July, the Destatis said Tuesday. 

On a monthly basis, producer prices rose at a record rate of 7.9% after rising at 5.3% in July. 

 

Sweden Lifts Rates by 1.0%, More Hikes to Follow 

Sweden's Riksbank lifted its key lending rate by 1.0% or 100 basis points to 1.75%, higher than 75 basis points expected by economists. 

The central bank also held out for higher rates over the next six months and the accompanying statement added that the monetary policy will adjust to bring down the current high inflation rate to 2% by 2025. 

The central bank estimated rates to rise to 2.25% by the year-end and inflation to hover near 8.6% in 2022 and decline to 8.5% in 2023 before declining to 2% in 2025.    

 

Asian Markets Closed Higher, China Rates Stable  

Asian markets closed higher following higher closing in New York in the overnight trading. 

The People's Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year lending rates unrevised, matching the market expectations. 

The central bank left the 1-year rate at 3.65% and the 5-year rate at 4.3% after trimming rates last month from 3.70% and 4.45% respectively.  

The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo jumped 0.4% and in Hong Kong added 1.2%. 

The Sensex index in India gained 1.0% on the expectations of a jump in consumer demand during the upcoming festival season and the rupee held stable at 79.89 despite the rising dollar.   

Housing Starts Rise, Permits and Completions Fall

Brian Turner
20 Sep, 2022
New York City

Housing starts jumped 12.2% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.575 million units, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. 

On an annual basis housing starts fell 0.1%. 

Single-family housing starts increased 3.4% to 935,000 units and multi-family home starts surged 28.6% to 621,000. 

Building permits dropped 10% from a year ago and fell 14.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.517 million units . 

Rate Anxieties Drag Major Averages 1%, Building Permits Fall

Barry Adams
20 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks opened lower and quickly accelerated declines as the Fed's policy committee began its two-day meeting. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes rose to 15-year high as investors debate the size of the next rate hike tomorrow. 

The S&P 500 index fell 1.3% to 3,850.63 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 0.9% to 11,430.14. 

Crude oil declined $1.70 to $84.06 a barrel and natural gas prices eased 5 cents to $7.69 a thermal unit. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes inched higher to 3.98%, 10-year notes traded up to 3.58% and 30-year bond jumped to 3.60%. 

 

Housing Starts Rise, Permits Fall 

Housing starts jumped 12.2% in August from July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.575 million units, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. 

On an annual basis housing starts fell 0.1%. 

Single-family housing starts increased 3.4% to 935,000 units and multi-family home starts surged 28.6% to 621,000. 

Building permits dropped 10% from a year ago and fell 14.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.517 million units . 

 

German PPI Surges

In Europe, benchmark indexes declined after German producer prices rose at a faster pace in August and Sweden lifted its rate by larger-than-expected amount. 

Producer prices in Germany soared at an annual rate of 45.8% in August after rising at 37.2% in July, the Destatis said Tuesday. 

On a monthly basis, producer prices rose at a record rate of 7.9% after rising at 5.3% in July. 

 

Sweden Lifts Rates by 1.0%, More Hikes to Follow 

Sweden's Riksbank lifted its key lending rate by 1.0% or 100 basis points to 1.75%, higher than 75 basis points expected by economists. 

The central bank also held out for higher rates over the next six months and the accompanying statement added that the monetary policy will adjust to bring down the current high inflation rate to 2% by 2025. 

The central bank estimated rates to rise to 2.25% by the year-end and inflation to hover near 8.6% in 2022 and decline to 8.5% in 2023 before declining to 2% in 2025.    

The DAX index fell 1.2% to 12,649.23, the CAC-40 index dropped 1.4% to 5,977.66 and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.8% to 7,181.92. 

 

Asian Markets Closed Higher, China Rates Stable  

Asian markets closed higher following higher closing in New York in the overnight trading. 

The People's Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year lending rates unrevised, matching the market expectations. 

The central bank left the 1-year rate at 3.65% and the 5-year rate at 4.3% after trimming rates last month from 3.70% and 4.45% respectively.  

The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo jumped 0.4% and in Hong Kong added 1.2%. 

The Sensex index in India gained 1.0% on the expectations of a jump in consumer demand during the upcoming festival season and the rupee held stable at 79.89 despite the rising dollar.   

Autozone Same Store Sales Rise 6.2%

Scott Peters
19 Sep, 2022
New York City

Autozone Inc declined 2.4% to 2,114.2 after the specialty retailer said same store sales in the fiscal fourth quarter increased 6.2%. 

Revenues, in the quarter ending on August 27, increased 8.9% to $5.4 billion from $4.9 billion a year ago.  

Net income in the quarter jumped 3.1% to $810.0 million from $785.8 million a year ago and diluted earnings per share rose to $40.51 from $35.72. 

Inventories in the quarter increased 21.5% to $5.6 billion from $4.6 billion a year ago on rising costs and product levels in support of larger store base. 

Inventory per store rose 18.4% to $812,000 from $686,000 a year ago.  

Net inventory, defined as merchandise inventories less accounts payable, on a per store basis, was negative $240,000 compared to negative $203,000 a year ago and negative $216,000 in the previous quarter.

For the fiscal year 2022, revenues rose 11.1% to $16.2 billion from $14.6 billion a year ago. 

Net income jumped 11.9% to $2.43 billion from $2.2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased to $117.19 from $95.19 a year ago. 

 Stock holder's deficit soared 97% to $3.53 billion from $1.8 billion a year ago. 

 

Stock Buybacks 

In the quarter, the retailer repurchased $1 billion of its own stock at an average price of $2,111 a share and for the fiscal year repurchased 2.2 million shares for $4.4 billion, at an average price of $1,964 a share.

At year end, the company had $1.1 billion remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

 

Store Network 

During the fiscal year, AutoZone opened 118 new stores and closed one in the U.S., opened 39 stores in Mexico and 20 stores in Brazil. 

As of August 27, 2022, the company had 6,168 stores in the U.S., 703 in Mexico and 72 in Brazil for a total store count of 6,943.

 

Stocks, Bond Yields and U.S. Dollar Advance

Barry Adams
19 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street managed to rise above the morning doldrums and benchmark indexes eked out gains at close. 

The Federal Reserve Bank's policy committee is set to announce its rate decision this Wednesday and investors are expecting a rate hike between 50 and 75 basis points. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes rose to 3.95%, 10-year Treasury notes jumped to 3.49% and 30-year bonds increased to 3.51%.  

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at a 11-year high. 

U.S. interest rates are expected to rise for the foreseeable future as the consumer price inflation is running above 8% and the inflation has stayed ahead of the Fed's target rate of 2% for nearly 24 months.  

Moreover, 13 central banks are scheduled to announce their rate decision this week as interest rates are expected to rise around the world. 

Last Friday, Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points, matching expectations. 

The People's Bank of China lowered its reverse repo rate for 14-day lending to 2.15% from 2.25% on Monday. 

The central  bank lowered its key lending rate to provide more liquidity in the financial system and spurred banks to increase lending in the housing, steel, and construction related industries. 

 

Wall Street Advances 

On Wall Street, stocks were in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed's decision on Wednesday and investors await more insights from policymakers. 

The S&P 500 index advanced 0.7% or 26.56 points to 3,899.80 and the Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.8% or 86.62 points to 11,535.02. 

Future price of the immediate-month  delivery of crude oil edged up 33 cents to $85.56 a barrel and natural gas inched up 13 cents to $7.89 a thermal unit. 

More than 400 stocks hit their 52-week lows including Ciena Corp, Church & Dwight, Fidelity National Information Services, GAMCO, Garmin, Korn Ferry,  Microsoft, PerkinElmer, Teradata and WeWork.  

Autozone Inc declined 2.4% to 2,114.2 after the specialty retailer said same store sales in the fiscal fourth quarter ending on August 27 increased 6.2%. 

Revenues in the quarter increased 8.9% to $5.4 billion from $4.9 billion a year ago and the retailer repurchased its own stock worth $1 billion in the quarter. 

Ralph Lauren Corp increased 2.4% to $95.72 after the company reiterated its fiscal 2023 outlook issued on August 9th. 

Wix.com Ltd jumped 13% to $83.27 after activist investor Starboard Value controls 9% stake in the web site development company. 

 

Mixed Closing On European Bourses 

Benchmark indexes in Europe traded mixed on the first day of the week after falling 3% in the previous week. 

Investors are bracing for rate decisions from at least 13 central banks this week including policy insights from the U.S., Switzerland, China, Japan and the U.K. 

U.S. rates are expected to rise for the foreseeable future as the consumer price inflation is running above 8% and the inflation has stayed ahead of the Fed's target rate of 2% for nearly 24 months.  

The Bank of England, The Swiss National Bank and The Bank of Japan are set to release their rate decisions on Thursday. 

Bond yields rose across the eurozone and Europe. 

The yield on 10-year bonds of Germany rose to 1.79%, the U.K. inched up to 3.16%, France advanced to 2.33%, Italy increased to 4.07% but Switzerland edged down to 1.1%.  

The DAX index inched up 0.5% to 12,803.24, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 6,059.70 and the FTSE 100 index dropped 0.6% to 7,236.68. 

The dollar rose against all European currencies ahead of the key U.S. rate decision on Wednesday. 

The euro traded down to $0.99 and the British pound fell to a nearly a 4-decade low to $1.137. 

Brent crude oil edged up 5 cents to $91.37 a barrel and TTF natural gas prices dropped to a 2-month low of 175.06 euros a megawatt hours. 

Stocks on European bourses generally traded sideways but with a downward bias. 

 

Porsche IPO Seeks 75 Billion Valuation 

Volkswagen AG gained 2.4% to 201.40 euros and the automaker is planning to raise as much as 9.5 billion euro through the initial public offering of its sports car division Porsche Automobil. 

Porsche Auto is expected to fetch a valuation between 70 billion and 75 billion euros. 

 

Bundesbank Estimates Recession Ahead 

The German economy is anticipated to slow down considerably and slip into a recession in the first quarter 2023, according to the monthly report released by the Bundesbank Monday. 

The bank noted that the economic outlook is "extremely uncertain" as energy intensive businesses suffer from a sky-high oil and natural gas prices and slowing consumer spending. 

On the consumer inflation front, prices are expected to rise at a faster pace with the expiry of the government subsidy in the purchase of transportation fuel and price cap on utilities on September 1. 

 

Portugal's PPI Eases 

Portugal's producer price inflation eased for the second month in a row. 

Prices rose at a slower annual pace of 22.4% in August after rising 24.6% in July, Statistics Portugal reported Monday. 

Energy prices surged 49.7% and intermediate goods prices increased 20.4%. 

On a monthly basis, prices fell 1%, reversing the increase of 0.6% in July. 

 

Movers: Autozone, Coinbase, Gamco, Homebuilders, Ralph Lauren, Theravance, Wix

Barry Adams
19 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street struggled to stay above the flat-line ahead of interest rate decisions from at least 13 central banks this week. 

The S&P 500 index inched up 0.5% to 3,893.17 and the Nasdaq Composite index added 0.6% to 11,518.69. 

Of the 11 sectors, health, energy and real estate sectors declined and the remaining sectors traded higher. 

American Airlines, Delta Air and United Airlines gained between 2% and 3% after crude oil prices edged lower and on the expectations of a better-than-expected summer air travel traffic. 

Autozone Inc declined 2.4% to 2,114.2 after the specialty retailer said same store sales in the fiscal fourth quarter ending on August 27 increased 6.2%. 

Revenues in the quarter increased 8.9% to $5.4 billion from $4.9 billion a year ago.  

Net income in the quarter jumped to $810.0 million from $785.8 million a year ago and diluted earnings per share rose to $40.51 from $35.72. 

In the quarter, the retailer repurchased $1 billion of its own stock at an average price of $2,111 a share and for the fiscal year repurchased 2.2 million shares for $4.4 billion, at an average price of $1,964 a share.

At year end, the company had $1.1 billion remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

Coinbase Global Inc plunged 8.8% to $67.52 after the popular cryptocurrency bitcoin declined to $19,039, the lowest since June 19.  

Gamco Investors Inc plunged 12.1% to $17.56 after the company controlled by Mario Gabelli filed a voluntary delisting petition with the New York Stock Exchange. 

Gamco has also filed an application with the OTC Markets Group for a quote-listing of its common stock.   

Homebuilders were in focus after sentiment in the industry dropped for the ninth month in a row. 

Homebuilder sentiment dropped to the lowest level since May 2014, except in the spring of 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released today.

The index declined 3 points to 46, any reading below 50 indicates negative or a decline. 

The number of builders reducing home prices jumped to 24% from 19% in August.  

Lennar Corp gained 2.5% to $77.64, Toll Brothers Inc added 1.3% to $44.24, PulteGroup added 2.5% to $40.34 and DR Horton Inc advanced 1.8% to $72.42.  

Ralph Lauren Corp increased 2.4% to $95.72 after the company reiterated its fiscal 2023 outlook issued on August 9th. 

"Over the next three years, from a base of Fiscal 2022 through Fiscal 2025, the Company expects an acceleration in revenue growth to a compound annual growth rate of mid- to high-single digits in constant currency. 

Operating profit growth is expected to exceed the rate of top-line growth as a result of continued operating margin expansion. Operating margin is expected to expand to at least 15% by Fiscal 2025 in constant currency, " added the company in its investor update released Monday. 

Theravance Biopharma Inc increased 2.7% to $10.35 after the company announced to buyback its shares in a tender offer of $95 million followed by a $60 million open market purchases to be completed by the end of 2023.

The company also agreed to acquire the entire stake of 9.6 million shares held by GSK for $9.75 a share.    

Wix.com Ltd jumped 13% to $83.27 after activist investor Starboard Value controls 9% stake in the web site development company. 

 

European Markets Close Mixed, Bundesbank Forecasts Recession

Bridgette Randall
19 Sep, 2022
Frankfurt

Benchmark indexes in Europe traded mixed on the first day of the week after falling 3% in the previous week. 

Investors are bracing for rate decisions from at least 13 central banks this week including policy insights from the U.S., Switzerland, China, Japan and the U.K. 

U.S. rates are expected to rise for the foreseeable future as the consumer price inflation is running above 8% and the inflation has stayed ahead of the Fed's target rate of 2% for nearly 24 months.  

Last Friday, Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points, matching expectations. 

The People's Bank of China lowered its reverse repo rate for 14-day lending to 2.15% from 2.25% on Monday. 

The central  bank lowered its key lending rate to provide more liquidity in the financial system and spurred banks to increase lending in the housing, steel, and construction related industries. 

The Bank of England, The Swiss National Bank and The Bank of Japan are set to release their rate decisions on Thursday. 

Bond yields rose across the eurozone and Europe. 

The yield on 10-year bonds of Germany rose to 1.79%, the U.K. inched up to 3.16%, France advanced to 2.33%, Italy increased to 4.07% but Switzerland edged down to 1.1%.  

The DAX index inched up 0.5% to 12,803.24, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 6,059.70 and the FTSE 100 index dropped 0.6% to 7,236.68. 

The dollar rose against all European currencies ahead of the key U.S. rate decision on Wednesday. 

The euro traded down to $0.99 and the British pound fell to a nearly a 4-decade low to $1.137. 

Brent crude oil edged up 5 cents to $91.37 a barrel and TTF natural gas prices dropped to a 2-month low of 175.06 euros a megawatt hours. 

Stocks on European bourses generally traded sideways but with a downward bias. 

 

Porsche IPO Seeks 75 Billion Valuation 

Volkswagen AG gained 2.4% to 201.40 euros and the automaker is planning to raise as much as 9.5 billion euro through the initial public offering of its sports car division Porsche Automobil. 

Porsche Auto is expected to fetch a valuation between 70 billion and 75 billion euros. 

 

Bundesbank Estimates Recession Ahead 

The German economy is anticipated to slow down considerably and slip into a recession in the first quarter 2023, according to the monthly report released by the Bundesbank Monday. 

The bank noted that the economic outlook is "extremely uncertain" as energy intensive businesses suffer from a sky-high oil and natural gas prices and slowing consumer spending. 

On the consumer inflation front, prices are expected to rise at a faster pace with the expiry of the government subsidy in the purchase of transportation fuel and price cap on utilities on September 1. 

 

Portugal's PPI Eases 

Portugal's producer price inflation eased for the second month in a row. 

Prices rose at a slower annual pace of 22.4% in August after rising 24.6% in July, Statistics Portugal reported Monday. 

Energy prices surged 49.7% and intermediate goods prices increased 20.4%. 

On a monthly basis, prices fell 1%, reversing the increase of 0.6% in July. 

Stocks In Holding Pattern Ahead of Rate Decisions This Week

Barry Adams
19 Sep, 2022
New York City

Benchmark indexes hugged the flat-line ahead of rate decision this week after a week of sharp sell-off. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank's policy committee is set to announce its rate decision this Wednesday and investors are expecting a rate hike between 50 and 75 basis points. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes rose to 3.96%, 10-year Treasury notes jumped to 3.49% and 30-year bonds increased to 3.5%.  

The 10-year Treasury yield is now trading at a 11-year high. 

U.S. rates are expected to rise for the foreseeable future as the consumer price inflation is running above 8% and the inflation has stayed ahead of the Fed's target rate of 2% for nearly 24 months.  

Moreover, 13 central banks are scheduled to announce their rate decision this week as interest rates are expected to rise around the world. 

Last Friday, Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points, matching expectations. 

The People's Bank of China lowered its reverse repo rate for 14-day lending to 2.15% from 2.25% on Monday. 

The central  bank lowered its key lending rate to provide more liquidity in the financial system and spurred banks to increase lending in the housing, steel, and construction related industries. 

The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are set to release their rate decisions on Thursday. 

On Wall Street, stocks were in a holding pattern ahead of the Fed's decision on Wednesday and investors await more insights from policymakers. 

The S&P 500 index fell 1.46 to 3,871.0 and the Nasdaq Composite index declined 0.3% or 31.0 points to 11,417.40. 

Future price of the immediate-month  delivery of crude oil eased 50 cents to $84.72 a barrel and natural gas was nearly unchanged at $7.74 a thermal unit. 

In Europe, indexes traded mixed on the first day of the week after falling 3% in the previous week. 

The DAX index inched up 0.3% to 12,776.28, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 6,059.70 and the FTSE 100 index dropped 0.6% to 7,236.68. 

The dollar rose against all European currencies ahead of the key rate decision on Wednesday. 

The euro traded down to $0.99 and the British pound fell to a nearly a 4-decade low to $1.137. 

Stocks on European bourses generally traded sideways but with a downward bias. 

Volkswagen AG gained 2.4% to 201.40 euros and the automaker is planning to raise as much as 9.5 billion euro through the initial public offering of its sports car division Porsche Automobil. 

Porsche Auto is expected to fetch valuation between 70 billion and 75 billion euros. 

 

Global Markets Extend Weekly Losses On Recession and Inflation Worries

Barry Adams
16 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street extended weekly losses after the bellwether transportation index declined adding to the list of investor worries. 

Nervous investors sold after FedEx withdrew its annual earnings guidance and cited weakening demand for shipments in Asia and delivery difficulties in Europe.

The FedEx earnings and warning on the economy sparked a wave of global selloff after the World Bank also forecasted the arrivals of recession in 2023.  

The FedEx earnings warning stoked anxieties of more warnings to follow from other transportation, logistics and retail companies. 

The World Bank in its latest report said that the global economic slowdown is accelerating at the fastest pace since the early seventies and several recession indicators are flashing warning signals. 

The multilateral bank also said that the global economy is likely to sink into a recession in 2023 as central banks around the world lift interest rates to tame inflation. 

In addition, the U.S. dominated institution also cited that despite the higher interest rates, inflation is likely to stay elevated on the persistent supply chain problems. 

The S&P 500 index declined 0.7% to 3,873.33 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 0.9% to 11,448.40. 

For the week, the S&P 500 index declined 4.2% and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 5.2%. 

All eleven sectors logged losses after investors were rattled by an earnings warning from FedEx, another dive in energy prices and bond yields trading near 15-year highs. 

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Schlumberger, Hess Corp and Marathon Oil dropped between 2% and 5%. 

Of the eleven sectors only consumer staples and real estate sectors closed up marginally, at close. 

 

Can We Tame Inflation and Avert a Recession?

Investors are increasingly accepting the scenario that high inflation can not be tackled without the high interest rates and the longer the Fed takes in lifting rates to or above 5% the longer the economic slowdown or even a recession will last.  

Crude Oil futures increased 33 cents to $85.38 and natural gas fell to 52 cents to $7.79 a thermal unit.

 

Bond Yields Advance Ahead of Fed Meeting Next Week 

The bond yields continue to trade higher with 2-year Treasury notes trading near 15-year high and ahead of 30-year Treasury bonds indicating that the bond market is forecasting a recession or an economic slowdown in the coming quarters. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes hovered near 3.89%, 10-year notes traded at 3.46% and 30-year bonds  at 3.52%. 

 

European Markets Head Lower

Benchmark indexes in Europe extended losses and bond yields rose on the persistent worries of economic slowdown and deepening energy crisis. 

The DAX index fell 1.3% to 12,788.31, the CAC-40 index dropped 0.9% to 6,104.77 and the FTSE 100 index fell 0.3% to 7,259.25. 

For the week, the DAX fell 2.7%, the CAC-40 declined 2.3%, and the FTSE 100 index dropped 1.7%. 

The euro edged up 0.2% to $1,0007 as investors brace for higher rates in the U.S. next week. 

 

Pound at 37-year Low 

The U.K. pound declined to a 37-year low of $1.14 as latest economic data point to economic slowdown and weakening activities. 

Retail sales in the U.K. dropped 1.6% on a monthly basis in August, the largest monthly decline so far in the year after a 0.4% rise in July, the Office for National Statistics reported Friday. 

 

Eurozone August Inflation Reaffirmed 

The Eurozone inflation was unrevised in the final estimate at 9.1% in August according to the Eurostat report released on Friday.

The inflation[s previous estimate was released on August 31 and the rate accelerated from 8.9% in July.  

 

 

Russia Cuts Rate Again 

The Central Bank of Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, matching the expectations. 

The central bank lowered the rate for the sixth time in a row but guided 2022 inflation to range between 11.0% and 13.0% before cooling down to between 5.0% and 7.0% in 2023. 

 

Movers: AstraZeneca, Extra Space Storage, FedEx, NCR, Uber

Barry Adams
16 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street extended weekly losses to 5% after another round of decline on Friday. 

The S&P 500 index declined 1.4% to 3,846.36 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 1.7% to 11,352.38. 

All eleven sectors logged losses after investors were rattled by an earnings warning from FedEx, another dive in energy prices and bond yields trading near 15-year highs. 

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Schlumberger, Hess Corp and Marathon Oil dropped between 2% and 5%. 

FedEx Corporation plunged 22.4% to $159.41 after the parcel delivery company guided lower revenues and earnings per share in the fiscal year 2023 first quarter ending in August. 

The company guided revenue of $23.2 billion, operating income of $1.19 billion and earnings per share $3.30. 

First quarter results were adversely impacted by global volume softness that accelerated in the final weeks of the quarter, the company noted in its guidance release.  

FedEx Express results were particularly impacted by macroeconomic weakness in Asia and service challenges in Europe, leading to a revenue shortfall in this segment of approximately $500 million relative to company forecasts. 

FedEx Ground revenue was approximately $300 million below company forecasts. 

The news sent other stocks in the transportation sector lower and rang alarm bells of the weakening global economic conditions and sank global market indexes. 

United Parcel Service plunged 4.9% to $175.93 and XPO Logistics Inc declined 6.9% to $46.06. 

Expeditors International plunged 4.4% to $92.65. 

Extra Space Storage, Inc declined 2.3% to $182.36 after the company agreed to acquire its rival Storage Express for $590 million. 

Storage Express owns and operates 107 storage properties across Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Kentucky.

NCR Corp plunged 22.4% to $22.22 after the company said it plans to split into two separate companies - ATM machine network and digital commerce. 

The split is expected to be tax-free and completed by the end of 2023. 

The ATM business is a cash-generative business to serve its existing network of customer base of banks and retailers.  

Digital commerce company is a growth-focused operation focused on retail, hospitality and digital banks. 

Uber Technologies Inc fell 4.3% to $31.73 after the company confirmed that it is investigating a cybersecurity breach claimed by a hacker. 

AstraZeneca plc rose as much as 1.8% to $58.72 after the pharmaceutical company won an approval from the European Union for its Covid-19 antibody cocktail. 

 

European Indexes Fall 3%, Italy's Trade Deficit Narrows, Pound Wobbles

Bridgette Randall
16 Sep, 2022
Frankfurt

Benchmark indexes in Europe extended losses and bond yields rose on the persistent worries of economic slowdown and deepening energy crisis. 

The World Bank in its latest report said that the global economic slowdown is accelerating at the fastest pace since the early seventies and several recession indicators are flashing warning signals. 

The multilateral bank also said that the global economy is expected to sink into a recession in 2023 as central banks around the world lift interest rates. 

In addition, the U.S. dominated institution also cited that despite the higher interest rates inflation is likely to stay elevated on the persistent supply chain problems. 

The mood also soured in financial markets after FedEx said its global shipments declined in the last two months at a pace higher-than-expected and the global parcel delivery company also withdrew its fiscal 2023 earnings outlook. 

The DAX index fell 1.3% to 12,788.31, the CAC-40 index dropped 0.9% to 6,104.77 and the FTSE 100 index fell 0.3% to 7,259.25. 

For the week, the DAX fell 2.7%, the CAC-40 declined 2.3%, and the FTSE 100 index dropped 1.7%. 

The euro edged up 0.2% to $1,0007 as investors brace for higher rates in the U.S. next week. 

 

Pound at 37-year Low 

The U.K. pound declined to a 37-year low of $1.14 as latest economic data point to economic slowdown and weakening activities. 

Retail sales in the U.K. dropped 1.6% on a monthly basis in August, the largest monthly decline so far in the year after a 0.4% rise in July, the Office for National Statistics reported Friday. 

 

Eurozone August Inflation Reaffirmed 

The Eurozone inflation was unrevised in the final estimate at 9.1% in August according to the Eurostat report released on Friday.

The inflation[s previous estimate was released on August 31 and the rate accelerated from 8.9% in July.  

 

Italy Trade Deficit Narrows In July 

Italy's trade deficit narrowed in July after exports rose at a faster pace than imports, the statistics office Istat said Friday. 

On a monthly basis, Italy's exports rose 4.1% in July reversing from the 1.9% decline in the previous month and imports advanced 3.4% the month from the 2.6% rise in the previous month.   

Trade deficit in July declined to 361 million euros from 2.5 billion euros in June. 

In July, exports rose 18.0% and imports surged 44.0% from a year ago.  

import prices rose 0.9% on a monthly basis and surged 20.6% from a year ago. 

In July, imports increased to 58.2 billion euros from 40.4 billion euros and exports rose to  57.81 billion euros from 48.98 billion euros, resulting in a trade deficit of 361 million euros compared to a trade surplus of 8.6 billion euros a year ago. 

So far in 2022, Italy has recorded a trade deficit of about 7 billion euros compared to a surplus of 38 billion in euros in the similar period in 2021. 

 

Russia Cuts Rate Again 

The Central Bank of Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, matching the expectations. 

The central bank lowered the rate for the sixth time in a row but guided 2022 inflation to range between 11.0% and 13.0% before cooling down to between 5.0% and 7.0% in 2023. 

 

Global Markets Extend Losses After FedEx and World Bank Warnings

Barry Adams
16 Sep, 2022
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street traded sharply lower on the worries of global economic slowdown and rate increases yet to come. 

The World Bank in its latest report said that the global economic slowdown is accelerating at the fastest pace since the early seventies and several recession indicators are flashing warning signals. 

The multilateral bank also said that the global economy is expected to plunge into a recession in 2023 as central banks around the world lift interest rates. 

In addition, the U.S. dominated institution also cited that despite the higher interest rates inflation is likely to stay elevated on the persistent supply chain problems. 

The mood also soured in financial markets after FedEx said its global shipments declined in the last two months at a pace higher-than-expected and the global parcel delivery company also withdrew its fiscal 2023 earnings outlook. 

 

Can We Tame Inflation and Avert a Recession?

Investors are increasingly accepting the scenario that high inflation can not be tackled without the high interest rates and the longer the Fed takes in lifting rates to or above 5% the longer the economic slowdown or even a recession will last.  

 

Why Wall Street Opened Lower 

The two separate reports put investors on alert and stock market indexes closed down in Asia and extended weekly losses in Europe. 

Stocks on Wall Street extended weekly losses and two popular indexes are set to close down between 4% and 6% for the week.  

The S&P 500 index declined 1.1% to 3,854.06 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped to 1.5% 11,381.79. 

Crude Oil futures increased $1.10 to $86.04 and natural gas fell to 35 cents to $7.96 a thermal unit.

 

Bond Yields Advance Ahead of Fed Meeting Next Week 

The bond yields continue to trade higher with 2-year Treasury notes trading near 15-year high and ahead of 30-year Treasury bonds indicating that the bond market is forecasting a recession or an economic slowdown in the coming quarters. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes hovered near 3.89%, 10-year notes traded at 3.42% and 30-year bonds  at 3.48%. 

 

European Markets Head Lower

In Europe, benchmark indexes also extended losses and bond yields rose on the persistent worries of economic slowdown and deepening energy crisis. 

The DAX index fell 1.3% to 12,788.31, the CAC-40 index dropped 0.9% to 6,104.77 and the FTSE 100 index fell 0.3% to 7,259.25. 

 

Pound at 37-year Low 

The U.K. pound declined to a 37-year low of $1.14 as latest economic data point to economic slowdown and weakening activities. 

Retail sales in the U.K. dropped 1.6% on a monthly basis in August, the largest monthly decline so far in the year after a 0.4% rise in July, the Office for National Statistics reported Friday. 

 

Eurozone August Inflation Reaffirmed 

The Eurozone inflation was unrevised in the final estimate at 9.1% in August according to the Eurostat report released on Friday.

The inflation[s previous estimate was released on August 31 and the rate accelerated from 8.9% in July.  

 

Russia Cuts Rate Again 

The Central Bank of Russia lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 7.5%, matching the expectations. 

The central bank lowered the rate for the sixth time in a row but guided 2022 inflation to range between 11.0% and 13.0% before cooling down to between 5.0% and 7.0% in 2023.