Market Update
As Treasury Yields Shift Higher, Global Markets Face Stronger Headwinds Ahead
Barry Adams
01 Mar, 2023
New York City
U.S. stocks trended lower in volatile trading after rate jitters dominated market sentiment.
Market jitters kept indexes in check and benchmark indexes traded in a right range lacking direction after rising Treasury yields and weak corporate results compounded market worries.
Stocks got an early boost after China's official data on the manufacturing sector was much stronger-than-anticipated.
Treasury yields advanced and the yields on 1-year and six-month Treasury notes inched higher above 5%-level.
Investors are still struggling decide terminal rate level with some investors estimating fed funds target rate range to reach as high as 6.0%.
Recent reports on the economy, inflation and employment are signaling that inflation is not likely to cool as fast as previously expected, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.
Higher rates have spilled over to the mortgage market and escalating mortgage rates dragged applications to the lows not seen in 28 years.
China's Manufacturing Expanded at 11-year High Rate
China's PMI in February rose to 52.6 from 50.1 in January, the high not seen since April 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday.
Manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row after Beijing ended its three-year old zero-Covid policy.
China's service sector accelerated its expansion, according to the data released by the NBS.
Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 in February from 54.4 in the previous month after new orders expanded at a faster pace.
Higher Mortgage Rates Crimp Applications to 28-year Low
Mortgage applications declined 5.7% from the previous week, according to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Associations for the week ending February 24.
The index measuring application volume dropped near the 28-year low after the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.71% last week.
"There has now been three straight weeks of declines in applications as mortgage rates have jumped 50 basis points over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.
"Purchase applications were 44% lower than a year ago and refinance applications accounted for less than a third of all applications and remained more than 70 percent behind last year’s pace, as a majority of homeowners are already locked into lower rates,” added Kan.
Indexes & Yields
The S&P 500 index decreased 0.5% to 3,951.39 and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.7% to 11,379.48.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes inched higher to 4.88%, 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.99% and 30-year Treasury bonds held steady at 3.96%.
Crude oil increased 54 cents to $77.59 a barrel and natural gas rose 6 cents to $2.81 a thermal unit.
U.S. Movers
Lowe's Companies said revenue in the fourth quarter rose to $22.4 billion from $21.3 billion and net income declined to $957 million from $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share fell to $1.58 from $1.78 in the previous year.
Comparable sales in the quarter declined 1.5%.
In full-year 2022, revenue rose to $97 billion from $96.3 billion and net income fell to $6.4 billion from $8.4 billion and diluted earnings per share decreased to $10.17 from $12.04 a year ago.
During the quarter, the retailer repurchased approximately 10 million shares for $2.0 billion and it repurchased 71 million shares for $14.1 billion for the year.
The company also paid $643 million in dividends in the fourth quarter and $2.4 billion in dividends for the year.
In total, the company returned $16.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2022.
Kohl's Corporation said revenue in the fourth quarter decreased 7.2% to $5.8 billion and the retailer swung to a net loss of $273 million from $299 million and diluted earnings per share was ($.2.49) compared to $2.20 a year ago.
Comparable sales in the quarter fell 6.6%.
In full-year 2022, revenue fell 7.1% to $17.2 billion and the apparel retailer swung to a net loss of $19 million compared to a profit of $938 million and diluted earnings per share was ($0.15) compared to $6.32 a year ago.
Comparable sales in the year declined 6.6%. The retailer announced a dividend of 50 cents per share payable March 29 to shareholders of record on March 15.
European Markets Pared Gains In Afternoon Trading
European market indexes opened higher on China optimism but major averages in the region eased in the final hour of trading and closed down.
Stocks opened higher after China's official measure of manufacturing activities expanded at the fastest rate in eleven years and service sector activities also rose at a robust pace.
Upbeat China data failed to overcome ongoing investor worries about economic slowdown and aggressive rate hikes.
Economic news in the region showed cooling of inflation is likely to take longer than previously expected and labor market conditions remained tight.
Germany's consumer price inflation held steady at 8.7% but elevated in February, said the Federal Statistical Office. Jobless rate was stable at 5.5% in the month despite challenging market conditions, said the Federal Labor Agency.
Swiss retail sales declined for the fourth month in a row in January.
Norway's current account jumped to NOK 361.20 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 from NOK 230.84 billion from the previous year.
Surplus of goods and services accounts increased to NOK 324.65 billion from NOK 266.66 billion a year ago.
Germany's Consumer Price Inflation Held Steady
Consumer price inflation in Germany held steady in February, the Federal Statistical Office or Destatis said in a preliminary report on Wednesday.
Consumer price index rose 8.7% in the month matching the increase in January despite the sharp fall in energy prices.
Energy prices rose at a slower pace of 19.1% in February from 23.1% rise in January but food price inflation accelerated to 21.8% from 20.2% in January.
Energy prices rose at a double digit pace despite the government's relief package for consumers.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8%.
Swiss Retail Sales Extended Decline to Fourth Month
Swiss retail sales declined for the fourth month in a row in January, the Federal Statistical Office reported Thursday.
Sales declined 2.2% in January after falling at a rate of 3.0% in December on an annual basis after food and non-food items sales dropped.
Sales of food, tobacco and beverages declined 3.3% and non-food items sales dropped 2.3%, the statistical office reported.
On a monthly basis, retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% and In nominal terms, retail sales advanced 0.7% annually and 1.2% from the previous month in January.
Indexes & Yields
The DAX index declined 0.4% to 15,305.02, the CAC-40 index dropped 0.5% to 7,234.25 and the FTSE 100 index rose 0.5% to 7,914.93.
The yield on 10-year German Bunds increased to 2.72%, French bonds rose to 3.21%, UK gilts to 3.82% and Italian bonds to 4.57%.
The euro increased to $1.066, the British pound inched lower to $1.205 and the Swiss franc to 94.00 cents.
Brent crude oil increased 91 cents to $84.36 a barrel and natural gas rose 40 cents to $47.08 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Resource stocks in London and across Europe and luxury fashion goods makers traded higher on China optimism. Brent crude oil and copper and iron ore prices rose as well.
BP Plc and Shell Plc increased 1% and mining companies Antofagasta, Glencore and Anglo American advanced between 3% and 5%.
LVMH and Kering SA added between 1% and 2% on the hopes of higher sales in China.
Persimmon Plc dropped 9.7% to 1,310.81 pence after the UK homebuilder reported a fall in pre-tax earnings and estimated lower home completions in 2023.
Euronext NV increased 4.0% to €71.92 after the pan-European bourse offering various trading services withdrew its offer to acquire Allfunds Group Plc.
Allfunds declined 13.2% to €7.19.
PUMA SE declined 6.8% to €56.30 after the German sportswear maker warned cost pressures are likely to persist in 2023.
Fourth quarter sales increased 24.3% to €2.2 billion but net income plunged to €1 million from €8 million in the previous year.
Full-year 2022 revenue increased 24.4% to €8.4 billion and net income improved to €354 million from € 310 million a year ago.
Earnings per share in the full-year 2022 increased to €2.36 from €2.07 in 2021.
Europe Movers: Allfunds, Beiersdorf, Euronext, just Eat, Nordex, Persimmons, Puma, Vestas
Bridgette Randall
01 Mar, 2023
New York City
In London and Paris, resource stocks and luxury fashion goods makers traded higher on China optimism.
Brent crude oil and copper and iron ore prices rose as well.
BP Plc and Shell Plc increased 1% and mining companies Antofagasta, Glencore and Anglo American advanced between 3% and 5%.
LVMH and Kering SA added between 1% and 2% on the hopes of higher sales in China.
Persimmon Plc dropped 9.7% to 1,310.81 pence after the UK homebuilder reported a fall in pre-tax earnings and estimated lower home completions in 2023.
Euronext NV increased 4.0% to €71.92 after the pan-European bourse offering various trading services withdrew its offer to acquire Allfunds Group Plc.
Allfunds declined 13.2% to €7.19.
PUMA SE declined 6.8% to €56.30 after the German sportswear maker warned cost pressures are likely to persist in 2023.
Fourth quarter sales increased 24.3% to €2.2 billion but net income plunged to €1 million from €8 million in the previous year.
Full-year 2022 revenue increased 24.4% to €8.4 billion and net income improved to €354 million from € 310 million a year ago.
Earnings per share in the full-year 2022 increased to €2.36 from €2.07 in 2021.
Just Eat Takeaway.com NV declined 2.1% to 1,771.40 pence after Europe's largest delivery company reported a wider loss in the full-year 2022.
In 2022, gross transaction volume was stable at €28.2 billion and total revenue increased 4% to €5.5 billion from €5.3 billion a year ago.
Total loss in 2022 widened to €5.7 billion from €1.04 billion in the previous year.
Beiersdorf AG fell 0.5% to €112.45 after the maker of Nivea branded products warned of lower organic sales growth in 2023.
Revenue in the full-year 2022 increased 15.4% to €8.8 billion and net income rose to €771 million from €655 million and earnings per share expanded to €3.33 from €2.81 in the previous year.
Vestas Wind Systems AS increased 2.7% to €27.83 after the company signed two conditional agreements in Brazil for 1.3 GW projects.
Nordex SE increased 2.7% to €14.61 after the company won two orders in Sweden and Finland with a combined capacity of 110MW.
German Inflation Held Steady but Elevated, Swiss Retail Sales Dropped
Bridgette Randall
01 Mar, 2023
Frankfurt
European market indexes opened higher on China optimism but major averages in the region eased in the final hour of trading and closed down.
Stocks opened higher after China's official measure of manufacturing activities expanded at the fastest rate in eleven years and service sector activities also rose at a robust pace.
Upbeat China data failed to overcome ongoing investor worries about economic slowdown and aggressive rate hikes.
Economic news in the region showed cooling of inflation is likely to take longer than previously expected and labor market conditions remained tight.
Germany's consumer price inflation held steady at 8.7% but elevated in February, said the Federal Statistical Office. Jobless rate was stable at 5.5% in the month despite challenging market conditions, said the Federal Labor Agency.
Swiss retail sales declined for the fourth month in a row in January.
Norway's current account jumped to NOK 361.20 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022 from NOK 230.84 billion from the previous year.
Surplus of goods and services accounts increased to NOK 324.65 billion from NOK 266.66 billion a year ago.
Germany's Consumer Price Inflation Held Steady
Consumer price inflation in Germany held steady in February, the Federal Statistical Office or Destatis said in a preliminary report on Wednesday.
Consumer price index rose 8.7% in the month matching the increase in January despite the sharp fall in energy prices.
Energy prices rose at a slower pace of 19.1% in February from 23.1% rise in January but food price inflation accelerated to 21.8% from 20.2% in January.
Energy prices rose at a double digit pace despite the government's relief package for consumers.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8%.
Swiss Retail Sales Extended Decline to Fourth Month
Swiss retail sales declined for the fourth month in a row in January, the Federal Statistical Office reported Thursday.
Sales declined 2.2% in January after falling at a rate of 3.0% in December on an annual basis after food and non-food items sales dropped.
Sales of food, tobacco and beverages declined 3.3% and non-food items sales dropped 2.3%, the statistical office reported.
On a monthly basis, retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% and In nominal terms, retail sales advanced 0.7% annually and 1.2% from the previous month in January.
Indexes & Yields
The DAX index declined 0.4% to 15,305.02, the CAC-40 index dropped 0.5% to 7,234.25 and the FTSE 100 index rose 0.5% to 7,914.93.
The yield on 10-year German Bunds increased to 2.72%, French bonds rose to 3.21%, UK gilts to 3.82% and Italian bonds to 4.57%.
The euro increased to $1.066, the British pound inched lower to $1.205 and the Swiss franc to 94.00 cents.
Brent crude oil increased 91 cents to $84.36 a barrel and natural gas rose 40 cents to $47.08 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Resource stocks in London and across Europe and luxury fashion goods makers traded higher on China optimism. Brent crude oil and copper and iron ore prices rose as well.
BP Plc and Shell Plc increased 1% and mining companies Antofagasta, Glencore and Anglo American advanced between 3% and 5%.
LVMH and Kering SA added between 1% and 2% on the hopes of higher sales in China.
Persimmon Plc dropped 9.7% to 1,310.81 pence after the UK homebuilder reported a fall in pre-tax earnings and estimated lower home completions in 2023.
Euronext NV increased 4.0% to €71.92 after the pan-European bourse offering various trading services withdrew its offer to acquire Allfunds Group Plc.
Allfunds declined 13.2% to €7.19.
PUMA SE declined 6.8% to €56.30 after the German sportswear maker warned cost pressures are likely to persist in 2023.
Fourth quarter sales increased 24.3% to €2.2 billion but net income plunged to €1 million from €8 million in the previous year.
Full-year 2022 revenue increased 24.4% to €8.4 billion and net income improved to €354 million from € 310 million a year ago.
Earnings per share in the full-year 2022 increased to €2.36 from €2.07 in 2021.
Movers: Abercrombie & Fitch, Compass, Eventbrite, GoodRx, LL Flooring, Lowe's, ODP
Scott Peters
01 Mar, 2023
New York City
Abercrombie & Fitch Co decreased 1.8% to $28.90 after the apparel retailer reported a decline in net income and forecasted slower growth.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 3% to $1.2 billion from $1.1 billion and net income declined to $38.3 million from $65.5 million and diluted earnings per share fell to 75 cents from $1.12 a year ago.
In full-year 2022, revenue was flat at $3.7 billion and net income dropped to $2.8 million from $263 million and diluted earnings per share plunged to 5 cents from $4.20 a year ago.
The apparel retailer guided net sales growth in the range of 1% to 3% from $3.7 billion in 2022 with the expectation that Abercrombie will continue to outperform Hollister and the U.S. sales will continue to outperform international sales.
Compass, Inc plunged 16.7% to $3.01 after the real estate brokerage service provider reported a sharp decline in fourth quarter revenue after industry wide home sales transactions plunged 18% in the period.
Compass, Inc said revenue in the fourth quarter declined 31% to $1.1 billion after real estate transactions fell 25%.
Net loss improved to $158 million from $175 million and diluted loss per share shrank to 36 cents from 43 cents in the previous year.
Revenue in 2022 declined 6% to $6 billion following a decline in transactions by the same amount.
Net loss in the year expanded to $601.5 million from $494.1 million and diluted loss per share fell to $1.40 from $1.51 a year ago.
Eventbrite, Inc soared 14.9% to $10.08 after the event ticketing and marketing platform operator reported profit in its latest quarter after in-person events rebounded led by music and food and wine events.
Eventbrite, Inc said fourth quarter revenue increased 20% to $71.5 million and the event and ticketing platform operator swung to a net income of $4.0 million from a loss of $16.8 million in the previous year.
In the fourth quarter, about 389,000 event planners created 1.5 million events and sold 77 million event tickets on the platform. Net revenue per paid ticket improved to $2.85 from $2.70 and paid ticket volume was 25.1 million on 14% increase in paid events from the previous year.
In the full-year 2022, a total of $3.3 billion of gross ticket sales and 284 million paid and free tickets were transacted on the platform.
Net revenue in the full-year 2022 increased 39% to $260.9 million and net loss shrank to $55.4 million from $137.6 million and diluted loss per share fell to 56 cents from $1.47 in the previous year.
The company forecasted first quarter 2023 revenue in the range of $73 million to $76 million, and full year 2023 revenue between $312 million to $330 million.
The company said it plans to eliminate 8% of roles (about 70 staff) immediately and over the next 10 months relocate 30% of roles to India and Spain as part of the company restructuring.
GoodRx Holdings Inc increased 6% to $5.61 after the online discount pharmacy reported a smaller-than-expected loss in its latest quarter.
GoodRx Holdings said revenue in the fourth quarter declined to $184 million from $213 million and net loss shrank to $1.9 million from $39.9 million and diluted earnings per share was breakeven compared to a loss of 10 cents from a year ago.
In 2022, revenue increased to $766.5 million from $745.4 million and net loss rose to $32.8 million from $25.2 million and diluted loss per share rose to 8 cents from 6 cents in the previous year.
Kohl's Corporation declined 2.5% to $27.34 after the apparel retailer reported a decrease in total and comparable store revenue and swung to a quarterly loss.
Kohl's Corporation said revenue in the fourth quarter decreased 7.2% to $5.8 billion and the retailer swung to a net loss of $273 million from a profit of $299 million and diluted earnings per share was ($.2.49) compared to $2.20 a year ago.
Comparable sales in the quarter fell 6.6%.
In full-year 2022, revenue fell 7.1% to $17.2 billion and the apparel retailer swung to a net loss of $19 million compared to a profit of $938 million and diluted earnings per share was ($0.15) compared to $6.32 a year ago. Comparable sales in the year declined 6.6%.
The retailer announced a dividend of 50 cents per share payable March 29 to shareholders of record on March 15.
LL Flooring Holdings, Inc dropped 10% to $4.55 after the retailer reported a loss in its latest quarter.
LL Flooring Holdings, Inc said revenue in the fourth quarter declined 7.5% to $263.9 million after comparable sales declined 9.5% from the previous year.
The flooring products retailer swung to a net loss of $15 million from a profit of $10.3 million and diluted earnings per share was ($0.53) compared to 35 cents in the previous year.
Revenue in the full-year 2022 declined 3.6% to $1.1 billion and comparable store sales fell 5.8%. Net income declined to $41.7 million from $61.4 million and diluted earnings per share fell to $1.41 from $2.10 in the previous year.
Lowe's Companies Inc fell 7% to $191.58 after the home improvement retailer reported a decline in comparable sales and net income.
Lowe's Companies said revenue in the fourth quarter rose to $22.4 billion from $21.3 billion and net income declined to $957 million from $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share fell to $1.58 from $1.78 in the previous year.
Comparable sales in the quarter declined 1.5%.
In full-year 2022, revenue rose to $97 billion from $96.3 billion and net income fell to $6.4 billion from $8.4 billion and diluted earnings per share decreased to $10.17 from $12.04 a year ago.
During the quarter, the retailer repurchased approximately 10 million shares for $2.0 billion and it repurchased 71 million shares for $14.1 billion for the year.
The company also paid $643 million in dividends in the fourth quarter and $2.4 billion in dividends for the year. In total, the company returned $16.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2022.
The ODP Corporation increased 7.3% to $48.59 after the office supply retailer increased its stock repurchase plan.
The ODP Corporation, parent of Office Depot, said sales in the fourth quarter increased 3% to $2.1 billion and the retailer swung to a net income of $17 million from a loss of $274 million from the previous year.
Diluted earnings per share was 38 cents compared to a loss of $5.44 in the previous year.
Sales in the full-year 2022 was flat at $8.5 billion and the retailer swung to a profit of $166 million from a loss of $208 million and diluted earnings per share was $3.37 from {$3.79) a year ago.
The company announced a new stock repurchase program of $1 billion replacing the current $600 million plan. In 2022, the company repurchased 6.4 million shares for $266 million, which included the repurchase of over 4.5 million shares for approximately $197 million in the fourth quarter,
Stocks Turned Lower As Treasury Yields Extended Gains
Barry Adams
01 Mar, 2023
New York City
U.S. stocks lacked direction in trading and Treasury yields hovered near 3-month highs.
Stocks got an early boost after China's official data on the manufacturing sector was much stronger-than-anticipated.
Bond yields advanced and the yields on 1-year Treasury notes and six-month Treasury notes pulled further above 5% level.
Recent reports on the economy, inflation and employment are signaling that inflation is not likely to cool as fast as previously expected, which continues to put upward pressure on rates.
China's Manufacturing Expanded at 11-year High Rate
China's PMI in February rose to 52.6 from 50.1 in January, the high not seen since April 2012, the National Bureau of Statistics reported Thursday.
Manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row after Beijing ended its three-year old zero-Covid policy.
China's service sector accelerated its expansion, according to the data released by the NBS.
Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 56.3 in February from 54.4 in the previous month after new orders expanded at a faster pace.
Higher Mortgage Rates Crimp Applications to 28-year Low
Mortgage applications declined 5.7% from the previous week, according to data released by the Mortgage Bankers Associations for the week ending February 24.
The index measuring application volume dropped near the 28-year low after the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.71% last week.
"There has now been three straight weeks of declines in applications as mortgage rates have jumped 50 basis points over the past month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.
"Purchase applications were 44% lower than a year ago and refinance applications accounted for less than a third of all applications and remained more than 70 percent behind last year’s pace, as a majority of homeowners are already locked into lower rates,” added Kan.
Indexes & Yields
The S&P 500 index decreased 0.2% to 3,964.36 and the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.2% to 11,438.60.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes inched higher to 4.85%, 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.95% and 30-year Treasury bonds held steady at 3.94%.
Crude oil increased 13 cents to $77.81 a barrel and natural gas fell 4 cents to $2.40 a thermal unit.
U.S. Movers
Lowe's Companies said revenue in the fourth quarter rose to $22.4 billion from $21.3 billion and net income declined to $957 million from $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share fell to $1.58 from $1.78 in the previous year.
Comparable sales in the quarter declined 1.5%.
In full-year 2022, revenue rose to $97 billion from $96.3 billion and net income fell to $6.4 billion from $8.4 billion and diluted earnings per share decreased to $10.17 from $12.04 a year ago.
During the quarter, the retailer repurchased approximately 10 million shares for $2.0 billion and it repurchased 71 million shares for $14.1 billion for the year.
The company also paid $643 million in dividends in the fourth quarter and $2.4 billion in dividends for the year.
In total, the company returned $16.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2022.
Kohl's Corporation said revenue in the fourth quarter decreased 7.2% to $5.8 billion and the retailer swung to a net loss of $273 million from $299 million and diluted earnings per share was ($.2.49) compared to $2.20 a year ago.
Comparable sales in the quarter fell 6.6%.
In full-year 2022, revenue fell 7.1% to $17.2 billion and the apparel retailer swung to a net loss of $19 million compared to a profit of $938 million and diluted earnings per share was ($0.15) compared to $6.32 a year ago.
Comparable sales in the year declined 6.6%. The retailer announced a dividend of 50 cents per share payable March 29 to shareholders of record on March 15.