Seasonally adjusted housing starts in March rose 0.3% to an annual rate of 1.79 million units from the revised February estimate of 1.788 million and 3.9% higher from the 1.727 million rate a year ago. Single-family housing starts fell to a rate of 1.2 million units, a decline of 1.7% from the revised rate of 1.221 million rate in the previous month, Housing completions in the month declined 4.5% to a rate of 1.3 million from February revised rate of 1.33 million and plunged 13% from a year ago. Single-family home completions fell 6.4% to a rate of 1 million from the February revised rate.
China's economy expanded at 4.8% in the first quarter from a year ago and rose 1.3% sequentially, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Fixed assets investment increased 9.3% from a year ago and Shanghai lockdown in March most likely shaved off 0.4% to 0.5% from the GDP growth data. Industrial production growth slowed to 5% from 7.5% increase in two months to February. Retail sales declined 3.5% reversing 6.7% gain in the prior two-month period. National urban unemployment rate increased to 5.8% in March from 5.5% in February.
Retail and food services sales in March rose 0.5% from the previous month and 6.9% from a year ago. February sales was revised higher to 0.8% from 0.3%. Total sales in the quarter to March rose 12.9% from the year ago period. March retail sales were up 0.4% from February and were up 5.5% from a year ago and gasoline sales soared 37% and food services sales gained 19.5% from last year.
Initial jobless claims in the last week rose to 185,000 from the revised 167,000 in the previous week, according to the Labor Department. The previous week's claims were revised higher 1,000. Insured unemployment rate was 0.1% in the last week matching the rate in the prior week. Continuing claims for the week ending on April 2 were 1.475 million, 48,000 lower than the prior week.
The latest consumer prices and supplier price inflation reports showed a surge in food prices in March. Tuesday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said food prices rose 8.8% in the month. Milk prices gained 13.3%, flour rose 14.2%, fruits and vegetables increased 8.5%. However, fertilizer prices are still rising and farmers are limiting planting and fuel prices are still going up.
CF NTR
CF NTR
The producer price index in March rose 1.4% adjusted for seasonality following 0.9% gain in February and 1.2% rise in January. The index rose 11.2% from a year ago and the largest increase since the series began in November 2010. Core PPI which excludes food, energy, and trade services rose 0.9% in the month and 7% from a year ago. Over half of the increase was driven by a surge in energy.
Lumber prices fell to a new 2022 low and extended 5-week drop to 40% as demand for renovation plunges. Supply also improved from saw mills after railcar bottlenecks were solved in western regions. The price fell 6% to $829 per thousand board feet following 8.4% fall a day ago. The DIY market, about 40% of the lumber demand, has been struggling as home owners are battling higher energy prices.
U.S. ceramic tile consumption in 2021 increased 9,9% in a year after falling for two years in a row. The 3.1 billion square feet of demand was driven by gains in the U.S. housing and construction markets and overall robust economic growth, according to the tile industry association. U.S. imports reached their highest level in fifteen years comprising 74% of total with 22% share held by Spain.
Farmers are bracing for another round of price hikes in fertilizers, diesel, and natural gas. Fertilizer prices rose 60% in 2021. Nitrogen fertilizers rose 95% and potash fertilizer prices surged 70%. Additionally, only two U.S. companies supply fertilizer potash and four supply 75% of fertilizer nitrogen. Moreover, the latest sanctions on Russia and Belarus have hampered potash imports.
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DE CF MOS
Russia's economy is expected to contract at least 10% in 2022 according to domestic news agency RIA. The decline in economic activities will be the largest since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The economy expanded at 4.7% in 2021 and was estimated to grow in 2022 at 3% rate prior to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia is facing soaring inflation, Western sanctions, and capital flight.
Consumer price index in March rose 8.5% from a year ago driven by the high cost of energy, food, and shelter. Energy prices soared 32% and food prices increased 8.8%. Core inflation which excludes food and energy rose 6.5%. For the month, core inflation increase ebbed to 0.3% after rising at 0.5% in February. Shelter costs rose 5% from a year ago and gained 0.5% in the month.
Seasonally adjusted weekly initial claims of unemployment were 166,000 in the week ending April 2, the lowest since November 1968. The claims declined 5,000 from the previous week's claims of 171,000, revised down 31,000 The 4-week moving average was 170,000, down 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.1% in the previous week.
Fed officials are leaning towards a higher rate increases and have agreed on a plan to shrink holdings of $9 trillion of U.S. bonds. After years of denying rising inflation as transitory, Fed officials are ready to roll over $60 billion of U.S. treasury bonds and $35 billion of mortgage securities a month phased over three months beginning in May starting with the shortest term holdings.
Rising interest rates are wreaking a havoc in mortgage industry and may indicate a slowing housing market in the coming months. Total mortgage volume declined another 6% last week and plunged 41% from a year ago. Applications dropped 10% in the week and plunged 62% from a year ago. The average 30-year contract interest rate increased to 4.9% last week from 3.36% a year ago.
PFSI WFC GHLD
PFSI WFC GHLD