Market Update
European Markets Halted 5-day Rally, Bond Yields Drifted Lower
Bridgette Randall
06 Nov, 2023
Frankfurt
European markets lacked direction in Monday's trading following a 5-day rally.
In cautious market sentiment, stocks drifted lower and bond yields continued to slide for the second week in a row after interest rate uncertainties eased following the rate hike pause in the U.S. and U.K.
Investors are struggling to recalibrate expectations in the face of a looming economic slowdown, tight labor market conditions, and rising interest rates driven by elevated inflation.
Inflation has been falling in the Euro Area, and consumer price inflation has steadily declined from a peak of 10.1% in November 2022 to 2.9% in October.
The European Central Bank has raised interest rates several times, but consumer inflation is still higher than the target rate of 2%. The recent decrease in inflation is due to lower energy prices and a higher base for the previous year.
Market indexes in Frankfurt, London, and Paris edged slightly lower, and investors reviewed updates on the UK's construction industry, German factory orders, and eurozone business activity.
German Factory Orders Advanced In September
German factory orders adjusted for seasonal factors, and the calendar unexpectedly rose 0.2% from the previous month in September, the Destatis reported Monday.
Factory orders fell 4.3% from a year ago.
August orders were downwardly revised to a 1.9% increase from the previous estimate of 3.9% following the revision of incorrect data in the manufacturing of electronic, optical, and computer products.
Domestic orders fell 5.9% and foreign orders were up 4.2%, after orders in the eurozone increased 6.2% and orders from the rest of the world rose 2.9%.
In other economic news, the HCOB Eurozone PMI compiled by S&P Global declined to 46.5 in October from 47.2 in September, the weakest reading since November 2020.
The purchasing managers' index highlighted different conditions in Spain and Italy.
The PMI for Spain in October was little changed at 50.0 from 50.1 in September, indicating stable conditions in the country.
The service PMI for Italy in October decreased to 47.7 from 49.9 in September, and the index contracted at the fastest pace in a year because of a decline in service output and activity.
The U.K. construction PMI rose to 45.6 in October from 45.0 in September, reflecting ongoing weakness in residential construction.
Home building declined for the eleventh month in a row, and civil construction activities declined at the sharpest pace since July 2020.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index decreased 0.3% to 15,149.54, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 7,025.69, and the FTSE 100 index was flat at 7,417.97.
The yield on 10-year German bonds decreased to 2.70%, French bonds traded lower to 3.29%, the UK gilts edged down to 4.33%, and Italian bonds inched higher to 4.52%.
The euro rebounded to $1.075, the British pound at $1.242, and the U.S. dollar at 89.61 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $1.43 to $86.43 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas edged lower by €1.63 to €46.43 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
Telecom Italia SpA declined 0.3% to €0.25 after the company agreed to sell its landline business to the U.S.-based private equity group KKR LP for €19 billion.
PostNL NV dropped 11% to €1.59 after the Dutch parcel delivery company reported a quarterly loss and forecasted annual profit to fall near the low end of its previous estimate.
Ryanair Holdings plc increased 6.6% to €16.21 after the discount airline forecasted a record annual profit and indicated its plan to pay a regular dividend.
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust PLC declined 0.5% to 684.48 pence after the company reported a decline in net asset value in the first half of the fiscal year.
Prudential plc decreased 0.8% to 892.60 pence after the insurance company reported a slower pace of growth in the third quarter from the previous quarter.
Melrose Industries PLC rose 3.5% to 507.0 pence after the company's unit, GKN Aerospace, signed a new agreement with GE Aerospace.
U.S. Movers: Apple, BMW, Starbucks
Scott Peters
03 Nov, 2023
New York City
Apple Inc. declined 1.7% to $174.51 after the maker of popular communication devices reported a decline in revenue for the fourth quarter in a row and forecasted weaker sales in the current quarter.
Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter declined 1% to $89.5 billion from $90.1 billion, net income advanced to $22.9 billion from $20 billion, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.46 from $1.29 a year ago.
Sales of iPhones increased to $43.8 billion from $43.6 billion, Macs plunged 34% to $7.6 billion from $11.5 billion, iPads eased to $6.4 billion from $7.2 billion, wearables fell to $9.3 billion from $9.7 billion, and services revenue jumped 16% to a record high of $22.3 billion from $19.2 billion a year ago.
Sales in the Americas edged up to $40.1 billion from $39.8 billion and edged slightly lower in Europe to $22.5 billion, in Greater China to $15 billion, in Japan to $5.5 billion, and in the rest of Asia to $6.3 billion.
For the full year, sales declined 3% to $383.3 billion from $394.3 billion.
The company's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 24 cents per share payable on November 13 to shareholders on record on November 10.
The company's installed base of devices reached a new record high across all products and all geographic segments, said chief financial officer Luca Maestri.
The company guided current quartet sales "to be similar to" the previous year, but the current year has one fewer week.
BMW AG jumped 3.1% to €93.91 after the company said production volume increased 4.2% to 638,524 vehicles in the third quarter.
Group revenue increased 3.4% to €38.5 billion from €37.2 billion, net income declined 7.7% to €2.9 billion from €3.2 billion, and earnings per share fell to €4.20 from €4.25 a year ago.
All electric vehicle sales in the quarter surged 79.6% to 93,931 units, accounting for 15.1% of total deliveries.
Starbucks Corp. extended 2-day gains to 13% after the coffee chain reported better-than-expected quarterly sales.
Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter ending on October 1 increased 11.4% to $9.4 billion from $8.4 billion, net income advanced 38.3% to $1.2 billion from $878.3 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.06 from 76 cents a year ago.
Global comparable store sales increased by 8%, driven by a 4% increase in average ticket sales and a 3% increase in comparable transactions.
North America and U.S. comparable store sales increased 8%, driven by a 6% increase in average ticket sales and a 2% increase in comparable transactions.
International comparable store sales increased 5%, driven by a 6% increase in comparable transactions and a 1% decline in average ticket sales.
In the second-largest market, China, comparable store sales increased 5%, driven by an 8% increase in comparable transactions and a 3% decline in average ticket sales.
The company continued its expansion and opened 816 net new stores in the quarter, ending the period with 38,038 stores, of which 52% are company-operated and 48% are licensed.
Nonfarm Payroll Growth Slowed In October
Brian Turner
03 Nov, 2023
New York City
Nonfarm payrolls in October increased 150,000, compared to 297,000 in the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The jobless rate at 3.9% and the number of unemployed persons at 6.5 million changed little in October.
In October, the number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 19.8% of all unemployed persons.
Employers added jobs in healthcare (58,000), social assistance (19,000), and government (51,000), and several strikes, including by the members of the UAW, pulled down employment in manufacturing by 35,000.
October payrolls increased below the average monthly gain of 258,000 over the last 12 months, but higher than the 75,000 jobs needed to meet the needs of the expanding population.
Hopes of Interest Rates Stability Fuel 5% Weekly Rally In Stocks
Barry Adams
03 Nov, 2023
New York City
Market indexes rallied more than 1% for the third day in a row in the hopes that interest rates have peaked for now.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged lower for the third day in a row as investors hoped that the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes at the next meeting in December.
Investors warmed up to stocks on the expectation of stable interest rates for the next three months, resilient consumer spending, and a softening but still tight labor market.
The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 1% in active trading after the latest jobs report, which also supported the peak-rate theory.
Nonfarm Payroll Growth Slowed in October
Nonfarm payrolls in October increased 150,000, compared to 297,000 in the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
The jobless rate at 3.9% and the number of unemployed persons at 6.5 million changed little in October.
In October, the number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 19.8% of all unemployed persons.
Employers added jobs in healthcare (58,000), social assistance (19,000), and government (51,000), and several strikes, including by the members of the UAW, pulled down employment in manufacturing by 35,000.
October payrolls increased below the average monthly gain of 258,000 over the last 12 months, but higher than the 75,000 jobs needed to meet the needs of the expanding population.
U.S. indexes and Yields
The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite are set to gain about 5% in the week after bond yields edged lower and rate uncertainties eased.
The S&P 500 index increased 1.0% to 4,287.45, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2% to 13,218.45.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.86%, 10-year Treasury notes inched lower to 4.50%, and 30-year Treasury bonds edged down to 4.69%.
Crude oil decreased $1.06 to $81.39 a barrel, and natural gas prices rose 3 cents to $3.50 a thermal unit.
Gold increased $6.61 to $1,992.53 an ounce after bond yields edged lower and the dollar weakened.
The dollar index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 105.25.
U.S. Stock Movers
Apple Inc. declined 1.7% to $174.51 after the maker of popular communication devices reported a decline in revenue for the fourth quarter in a row and forecasted weaker sales in the current quarter.
Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter declined 1% to $89.5 billion from $90.1 billion, net income advanced to $22.9 billion from $20 billion, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.46 from $1.29 a year ago.
Sales of iPhones increased to $43.8 billion from $43.6 billion, Macs plunged 34% to $7.6 billion from $11.5 billion, iPads eased to $6.4 billion from $7.2 billion, wearables fell to $9.3 billion from $9.7 billion, and services revenue jumped 16% to a record high of $22.3 billion from $19.2 billion a year ago.
Sales in the Americas edged up to $40.1 billion from $39.8 billion and edged slightly lower in Europe to $22.5 billion, in Greater China to $15 billion, in Japan to $5.5 billion, and in the rest of Asia to $6.3 billion.
For the full year, sales declined 3% to $383.3 billion from $394.3 billion.
The company's board of directors declared a cash dividend of 24 cents per share payable on November 13 to shareholders on record on November 10.
The company's installed base of devices reached a new record high across all products and all geographic segments, said chief financial officer Luca Maestri.
The company guided current quartet sales "to be similar to" the previous year, but the current year has one fewer week.
Europe Movers: AP Moeller-Maersk, BMW, Currys, Deutsche Wohnen, Smith & Nephew, Societe Generale, Vonovia
Inga Muller
03 Nov, 2023
Frankfurt
The DAX index increased 0.2% to 15,176.14, the CAC-40 index fell 0.08% to 7,058.16, and the FTSE 100 index edged down 0.04% to 7,442.27.
The yield on 10-year German bonds increased to 2.71%, French bonds traded lower to 3.31%, the UK gilts edged up to 4.39%, and Italian bonds inched higher to 4.55%.
A P Moeller-Maersk AS Class B dropped 15% to DKK 10,300.0 after the shipping company said full-year operating profit is expected to fall to the lower end of its earlier estimate, and the company plans to eliminate at least 10,000 jobs.
Smith & Nephew plc increased 3.3% to 993.64 pence after the company refuted claims that the weight loss drugs were likely to hurt the company's sales.
Currys Plc gained 3.9% to 47.80 pence after the UK-based electrical retailer agreed to sell its Greece and Cyprus-based retail operation Kotsovolos to Public Power Corporation for €200 million.
Societe Generale SA increased 1.1% to €21.84 despite the French lender reporting a decline in third quarter net income.
BMW AG jumped 3.1% to €93.91 after the company said production volume increased 4.2% to 638,524 vehicles in the third quarter.
Group revenue increased 3.4% to €38.5 billion from €37.2 billion, net income declined 7.7% to €2.9 billion from €3.2 billion, and earnings per share fell to €4.20 from €4.25 a year ago.
All electric vehicle sales in the quarter surged 79.6% to 93,931 units, accounting for 15.1% of total deliveries.
Vonovia SE increased 6.2% to €24.17 after the German real estate company confirmed its full-year outlook.
Deutsche Wohnen SE advanced 2.4% to €21.98 after the real estate company reported preliminary funds from operations of €456.3 million, or €1.15 per share, in the 9-month period ending in September.
European Markets Rally for Fifth Consecutive Day
Bridgette Randall
03 Nov, 2023
Frankfurt
European market indexes advanced for the fifth day in a row in the hopes that the central banks are done raising rates for now.
Benchmark indexes in Paris, London, and Frankfurt traded higher and extended weekly gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held key lending rates, following similar action by the European Central Bank days ago.
Stocks in interest rate-sensitive sectors—real estate, banks, financial services, and automobiles—led gainers in Friday's trading.
Bond yields also edged lower in the eurozone and the UK after the central banks held rates steady.
Eurozone Jobless Rate Inched Higher
The eurozone jobless rates edged higher to 6.5% in September, higher than 6.4% in the previous month, Eurostat reported Friday.
The jobless rate declined to 6.5% from 6.7% a year ago.
The number of unemployed people rose by 69,000 from the previous month to 11.017 million.
Germany recorded the lowest jobless rate of 3%, while Spain led the larger economies in the currency union with a rate of 12%, followed by Italy with 7.4% and France with 7.3%.
Moreover, the unemployment rate among jobseekers of less than 25 years edged up to 14% from 13.9% in August.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased 0.2% to 15,176.14, the CAC-40 index fell 0.08% to 7,058.16, and the FTSE 100 index edged down 0.04% to 7,442.27.
The yield on 10-year German bonds increased to 2.71%, French bonds traded lower to 3.31%, the UK gilts edged up to 4.39%, and Italian bonds inched higher to 4.55%.
The euro rebounded to $1.064, the British pound at $1.222, and the U.S. dollar at 90.46 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $0.02 to $86.27 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas edged higher by €0.44 to €49.0 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
A P Moeller-Maersk AS Class B dropped 15% to DKK 10,300.0 after the shipping company said full-year operating profit is expected to fall to the lower end of its earlier estimate, and the company plans to eliminate at least 10,000 jobs.
Smith & Nephew plc increased 3.3% to 993.64 pence after the company refuted claims that the weight loss drugs were likely to hurt the company's sales.
Currys Plc gained 3.9% to 47.80 pence after the UK-based electrical retailer agreed to sell its Greece and Cyprus-based retail operation Kotsovolos to Public Power Corporation for €200 million.
Societe Generale SA increased 1.1% to €21.84 despite the French lender reporting a decline in third quarter net income.
BMW AG jumped 3.1% to €93.91 after the company said production volume increased 4.2% to 638,524 vehicles in the third quarter.
Group revenue increased 3.4% to €38.5 billion from €37.2 billion, net income declined 7.7% to €2.9 billion from €3.2 billion, and earnings per share fell to €4.20 from €4.25 a year ago.
All electric vehicle sales in the quarter surged 79.6% to 93,931 units, accounting for 15.1% of total deliveries.
Vonovia SE increased 6.2% to €24.17 after the German real estate company confirmed its full-year outlook.
Deutsche Wohnen SE advanced 2.4% to €21.98 after the real estate company reported preliminary funds from operations of €456.3 million, or €1.15 per share, in the 9-month period ending in September.
S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Surged 2% as Bond Yields Recede
Barry Adams
02 Nov, 2023
New York City
The stock market soared for the second day in a row after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, encouraging investors to increase stock exposure.
In a widely anticipated decision, the Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate range between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 22-year high as the central bank battles to cool inflation to the target rate of 2%.
After the Fed's action, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds edged lower by 12 basis points and turned lower after rising above 5% only about two weeks ago.
Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest by 500 basis points in eleven increments before pausing for two consecutive meetings in September and November.
After the Fed's forceful actions over the 14-month period, inflation has cooled from the peak above 9% but has stayed near 4%, significantly higher than the Fed's target rate of 2%.
Investors are divided into two camps, with one group of investors estimating that policymakers may have to hold rates higher or increase them in 2024 because of the rebound in energy prices and the rising federal budget deficit contributing to inflationary forces.
In the second group, investors are hoping that inflation will continue to cool in the months ahead, largely because of weaker wage growth and a higher base effect.
In today's trading, investors in the second group stepped up buying and drove market indexes higher for the second day in a row after the Fed's decision to pause.
The Federal Reserve's battle to cool the economy and labor market and slow wage growth got some support from the latest jobless data and labor cost productivity report.
Weekly Jobless Claims Edged Higher
Initial claims for jobless benefits increased from 5,000 to 217,000 in the week ending October 28, a two-month high, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday.
The four-week moving average, which removes week-to-week volatility, edged up 2,000 to 210,000.
Moreover, continuing claims rose by 35,000 to 1.818 million in the previous week, the highest since April, indicating that job hunters are struggling to find work.
Labor Costs Declined In Third Quarter
U.S. nonfarm business sector unit costs declined by 0.8% in the third quarter, following an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the previous quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Unit labor costs declined for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022, after hourly compensation increased by 3.9% and productivity advanced by 4.7%.
Unit labor costs rose by 1.9% from a year ago in the third quarter, the slowest pace of increase since the second quarter of 2021.
U.S. indexes and Yields
The S&P 500 index increased 1.9% to 4,317.78, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.8% to 13,294.19.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.99%, 10-year Treasury notes inched lower to 4.67%, and 30-year Treasury bonds edged down to 4.82%.
Crude oil increased $1.90 to $82.31 a barrel, and natural gas prices rose 1 cent to $3.43 a thermal unit.
Gold increased $3.19 to $1,985.28 an ounce ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision later in the day.
The dollar index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 105.96.
U.S. Stock Movers
Airbnb Inc. increased 0.9% to $120.50 after the vacation rental platform reported higher-than-expected third-quarter revenue but forecasted weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue.
Qualcomm Inc. jumped 6% to $118.0 after the advanced communication chip designer reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and earnings.
The mobile communication chip maker also forecast higher-than-expected revenue in the fourth quarter, signaling a possible recovery in the microchip industry.
SolarEdge Technologies Inc. dropped 10.5% to $67.65 after the company reported weaker-than-expected sales in the third quarter and forecasted more weakness in the fourth quarter.
Revenue in the third quarter declined to $725 million and loss per share was 55 cents, and the company guided fourth quarter sales to drop in the range between $275 million and $320 million.
The demand for home solar installations nosedived on rising interest rates after California cut the compensation rate for solar incentive programs in April.
California is expected to announce similar compensation cuts for multifamily, farm, and school buildings, which could further dampen the demand.
Peloton Interactive Inc. dropped 6.5% to $4.50 after the company reported a wider-than-expected loss.
Revenue in the quarter fell 3% to $595.1 million from $616.5 million; net loss shrank to $159.1 million from $408.5 million; and diluted loss per share shrank to 44 cents from $1.20 a year ago.
The company forecasted revenue in the fiscal 2024 second quarter ending December in the range of $715 million and $750 million, a decrease of 8% from the midpoint of $793 million a year ago.
European Markets Extend 4-day Rally
Benchmark indexes across Europe jumped more than 1% on interest rate optimism after the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision.
Popular indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, and London advanced for the fourth day in a row and jumped 1% after the Fed kept its short-term interest rate range unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%.
The Bank of England kept its key lending rate at a 15-year high of 5.25% and held rates for the second time in a row.
The Monetary Policy Committee, in a 6-3 vote, decided to leave rates unchanged, and the central bank reiterated that rates are likely to remain restrictive for a while until inflation drops to the 2% level.
Market participants bid up stocks in the hope that the central banks are likely to pause rates for a while.
Higher interest rates lower the value of the future earnings stream, especially for high-growth and tech companies where most of the earnings are in the future, and higher short-term rates drive long-term bond yields higher, providing an attractive alternative to stock investing.
On the economic front, Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased to 5.8% in October from 5.7% in September, the Federal Statistics Office reported Thursday.
Manufacturing surveys across the eurozone showed persistent growth weakness.
HCOB's final eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 43.1 in October from 43.4 in September, S&P Global reported Thursday.
Manufacturing weakness intensified in Italy and Spain due to challenging economic conditions in the currency union.
The manufacturing index in Italy fell to 44.9 in October from 46.8 in September, and in Spain it eased to 45.1 from 47.7 in September, separate reports from S&P Global showed.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased 1.5% to 15,143.60, the CAC-40 index advanced 1.9% to 7,060.69, and the FTSE 100 index edged up 1.4% to 7,446.53.
The yield on 10-yetrar German bonds decreased to 2.70%, French bonds traded lower to 3.32%, the UK gilts edged up to 4.41%, and Italian bonds inched lower to 4.48%.
The euro rebounded to $1.062, the British pound at $1.212, and the U.S. dollar at 90.33 Swiss cents.
Brent crude increased $2.33 to $86.94 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas edged higher by €0.81 to €48.56 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
BT Group Class A jumped 6.4% to 118.19 pence after the UK-based broadband and mobile services provider reported better-than-expected quarterly results.
Shell plc jumped 2.2% to 2,711.05 pence after the oil company reported a third-quarter profit of $6.2 billion and launched a $3.5 billion stock repurchase plan.
Trainline Plc soared 8.2% to 284.22 pence after an online train travel information provider and ticketing platform reported positive results in the first half.
Net rail ticket sales in the first half increased by 23% to £2.6 billion, following the post-pandemic rebound in travel.
Revenue in the first half increased 19% to £197 million from £165 million, operating profit advanced 36% to £23 million from £17 million, and basic earnings per share rose to 2.9 pence from 2.6 pence a year ago.
The company revised its estimated full-year revenue growth range to between 17% and 22% from the previous range of between 13% and 22%.
The company also tightened its full-year revenue growth range between 15% and 20%, from the previous range between 13% and 22%.
Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc declined 3.5% to 1,847.0 pence despite the company forecasting core operating margin growth for its generic at the upper end of its previous announced range.
Alstom SA jumped 4.6% to €13.39 after the French-rail service company won an eight-year services contract extension of €950 million from CrossCountry trains, part of Arriva Group, in the United Kingdom.
Schneider Electric SE added 3.5% to €150.22 after the company said it finalized the acquisition of EcoAct SAS, a climate consulting and net zero solutions provider.
Hugo Boss AG increased 5.7% to €58.58 after the fashion apparel company reported positive third-quarter earnings and reiterated its full-year 2023 outlook.