Market Update
U.S. Major Averages Attempted to Extend Weekly Rally, Import Price Inflation Eased
Barry Adams
16 Nov, 2023
New York City
Stock market indexes rested after days of moving higher, and investors reacted to the latest earnings results.
The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite edged slightly lower in early trading after Walmart, Cisco, Palo Alto Networks, and Macy's reported quarterly results.
Walmart declined 7% after the retailer issued a cautious outlook for holiday sales; Cisco plunged nearly 10% after the company offered a weak outlook for the current quarter and full year; Palo Alto Networks estimated weaker growth in new orders; but Macy's jumped more than 8% after the retailer reported better-than-expected earnings.
On the economic front, import prices declined 0.8% from the previous month in October, confirming the disinflation trend reported by two inflation reports released earlier in the week.
Import prices fell the most in seven months following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in September. The decline was primarily led by a 6.5% fall in petroleum prices and a 5.3% fall in natural gas prices.
Initial jobless claims rose from 13,000 to 231,000 in the week ending November 11, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday.
According to continuing claims, those unemployed for more than four weeks rose by 18,000 to 1.865 million in the previous week.
U.S. Indexes and Yields
The S&P 500 index jumped 0.4% to 4,512.09, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% to 14,134.89.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.83%, 10-year Treasury notes inched lower to 4.46%, and 30-year Treasury bonds edged up to 4.64%.
Crude oil decreased $1.02 to $75.60 a barrel, and natural gas prices fell 2 cents to $3.16 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased $13.44 to $1,972.51 an ounce after bond yields traded in a narrow range.
The dollar index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 104.19.
U.S. Stock Movers
Walmart dropped 6.2% to $159.20 after the retailer reported quarterly results and issued a cautious outlook.
Revenue in the fiscal third quarter increased 5.2% to $160.8 million from $152.8 billion, and the company swung to a profit of $453 million from a loss of $1.8 billion. Diluted earnings per share were 17 cents, compared to a loss of 66 cents a year ago.
Sales at U.S. locations reflected ongoing challenging conditions for consumers; sales of groceries and health and wellness products rose, but discretionary items and general merchandise sales declined "modestly."
Walmart U.S. sales increased 4.4% to $109.4 billion, driven by a 4.9% increase in comparable store sales; transactions rose 3.4%; and average ticket size advanced 1.5% from a year ago.
The retailer also indicated U.S. e-commerce sales rose by 24%, and advertising sales on its online platform rose by 26% from a year ago.
The company guided full-year 2024 consolidated sales to increase between 5% and 5.5% and adjusted earnings per share to be between $6.40 and $6.80.
Cisco Systems plunged 9.6% to $48.16 after the networking equipment maker reported strong quarterly results but said product order growth is likely to slow down.
Palo Alto Networks declined 6.5% to $239.52 after the cyber security company reported better-than-expected quarterly results, but the company's new orders fell short of market expectations.
Macy's jumped 8.2% to $13.64 after the apparel retailer reported better-than-expected earnings because of a decline in inventories and higher margins.
Europe Movers: Aviva, Burberry, City Pub Group, Energy Stocks, Halma, HelloFresh, Luxury Stocks, Publics, Vallourec, Siemens Energy
Inga Muller
16 Nov, 2023
Frankfurt
European markets extended weekly gains to the second consecutive week and bond yields drifted to two-month lows following the weakening of inflation in the Euro Area, the UK and the U.S.
The DAX index increased 0.4% to 15,810.62, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 7,188.44, and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.4% to 7,458.32.
The yield on 10-year German bonds increased to 2.61%; French bonds traded higher to 3.21%; the UK gilts eased to 4.16%; and Italian bonds inched lower to 4.38%.
Energy companies traded down after Brent crude oil declined below $81 a barrel in London trading, the level last seen in July after crude oil supplies rose in the U.S., according to the weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
BP plc, Shell plc, TotalEnergies, Eni SpA, and Repsol SA declined between 1% and 2%.
Burberry Group plc dropped 9.4% to 1,580.77 pence after the luxury fashion group issued a revenue warning for the fiscal year 2024.
City Pub Group PLC soared 36.4% to 135.12 pence after the company agreed to be acquired by Young & Company's Brewery, Plc, for £162 million.
Young & Co. agreed to pay 145 pence per share, a 46% premium to the 99 pence closing price of City Pub before the announcement of the deal.
After the merger, Young & Co. shareholders will control 94% of the combined company, and City Pub shareholders will own 6%.
Aviva plc increased 0.6% to 416.60 pence after the UK-based insurance company reiterated its full-year outlook.
Halma plc jumped 4.95% to 2,063.0 pence after the UK-based safety equipment maker reported record first-half results.
French luxury stocks declined following the weak housing market data in China, confirming ongoing demand weakness for French luxury goods.
LVMH decreased 1.9% to €705.20, Kering SA dropped 1.9% to €402.15, and Richemont SA fell 1.3% to CHF 110.55.
Vallourec SA rose 4.2% to €13.03 after the French tubular products maker lifted its 2023 operating earnings outlook after reporting slightly higher third quarter earnings.
Publicis Groupe SA decreased 1.4% to €70.48 after the French advertising and public relations company appointed current CEO of EMEA Loris Nold as group Chief Financial Officer in February 2024.
Siemens AG increased 4.4% to €145.0 after the industrial company reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings ahead of expectations.
Revenue in the fourth quarter increased 4% to €21.4 billion and new orders were €21.8 billion, matching the previous year level.
Net income declined to €1.9 billion compared to €2.9 billion, which included one-time pre-tax gain of €1.1 billion from the sale of mail and parcel handling business.
Basic earnings per share declined to €2.17 from €3.39 and free cash flow soared 34% to €4.6 billion from €3.5 billion a year ago.
Siemens proposed to increase its cash dividend to €4.70 from €4.25 a year ago.
Hellofresh SE plunged 22.2% to €15.85 after the meal-kit provider lowered its adjusted earnings outlook and narrowed its revenue growth estimate.
The company lowered its revenue growth estimate to between 2% and 5% from the previous estimate between 2% and 8% and adjusted its earnings outlook to between €430 million and €470 million from the previous estimate between €470 million and €540 million.
The company blamed the weakness on lower-than-expected revenue growth in the U.S. and higher-than-expected expenses at its ready-eat facility in Arizona because of temporary water shortages.
European Markets Inched Higher and Bond Yields Drifted Lower
Bridgette Randall
16 Nov, 2023
Frankfurt
European markets extended weekly gains, and bond yields declined following the easing of inflation in the Euro Area, the U.S., and the U.K.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt gained, but in London and Paris they lacked direction, and the euro and the pound hovered near the two-month highs.
Bond yields turned lower in Germany, France, Italy, and the U.K. following the decline in U.S. Treasury yields in overnight trading.
Closer to home, consumer price inflation in the UK and France dropped closer to 4% in October, and wholesale prices declined in Germany, signaling waning inflation pressures in the economy.
The decline in inflation for the last ten months is largely driven by the weakness in crude oil prices and higher interest rates, but despite the multiple rate hikes, prices are still rising at a faster than 2% target rate set by the central banks.
For now, investors remained focused on the rate decision at the next policy meeting, and investors bid up stocks after ECB President Christine Lagarde said a week ago that rates are likely to stay unrevised for "the next couple of quarters."
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased 0.4% to 15,810.62, the CAC-40 index fell 0.3% to 7,188.44, and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.4% to 7,458.32.
The yield on 10-year German bonds increased to 2.61%; French bonds traded higher to 3.21%; the UK gilts eased to 4.16%; and Italian bonds inched lower to 4.38%.
The euro rebounded to $1.084, the British pound at $1.239, and the U.S. dollar at 88.89 Swiss cents.
Brent crude decreased $0.28 to $80.89 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas edged higher by €0.26 to €47.30 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
Energy companies traded down after Brent crude oil declined below $81 a barrel in London trading, the level last seen in July after crude oil supplies rose in the U.S., according to the weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
BP plc, Shell plc, TotalEnergies, Eni SpA, and Repsol SA declined between 1% and 2%.
Burberry Group plc dropped 9.4% to 1,580.77 pence after the luxury fashion group issued a revenue warning for the fiscal year 2024.
City Pub Group PLC soared 36.4% to 135.12 pence after the company agreed to be acquired by Young & Company's Brewery, Plc, for £162 million.
Young & Co. agreed to pay 145 pence per share, a 46% premium to the 99 pence closing price of City Pub before the announcement of the deal.
After the merger, Young & Co. shareholders will control 94% of the combined company, and City Pub shareholders will own 6%.
Aviva plc increased 0.6% to 416.60 pence after the UK-based insurance company reiterated its full-year outlook.
Halma plc jumped 4.95% to 2,063.0 pence after the UK-based safety equipment maker reported record first-half results.
French luxury stocks declined following the weak housing market data in China, confirming ongoing demand weakness for French luxury goods.
LVMH decreased 1.9% to €705.20, Kering SA dropped 1.9% to €402.15, and Richemont SA fell 1.3% to CHF 110.55.
Vallourec SA rose 4.2% to €13.03 after the French tubular products maker lifted its 2023 operating earnings outlook after reporting slightly higher third quarter earnings.
Publicis Groupe SA decreased 1.4% to €70.48 after the French advertising and public relations company appointed current CEO of EMEA Loris Nold as group Chief Financial Officer in February 2024.
Siemens AG increased 4.4% to €145.0 after the industrial company reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings ahead of expectations.
Hellofresh SE plunged 22.2% to €15.85 after the meal-kit provider lowered its adjusted earnings outlook and narrowed its revenue growth estimate.
The company lowered its revenue growth estimate to between 2% and 5% from the previous estimate between 2% and 8% and adjusted its earnings outlook to between €430 million and €470 million from the previous estimate between €470 million and €540 million.
The company blamed the weakness on lower-than-expected revenue growth in the U.S. and higher-than-expected expenses at its ready-eat facility in Arizona because of temporary water shortages.
Rate Optimism Powers Market Rally In Third Consecutive Week
Barry Adams
15 Nov, 2023
New York City
Two inflation reports in as many days supported the case for an interest rate pause and an extended two-week rally.
The latest data on wholesale inflation and retail sales also supported the market's gains in today's session.
The steady decline in consumer price inflation in October and the core rate of inflation dropping to a two-year low were followed by a sharp decline in wholesale price inflation.
Two inflation reports confirmed that the Fed Reserve's policymakers may have more wiggle room than previously thought and that the central bank is more likely to hike rates at its next meeting in December.
For months, stocks declined on worries of rate path uncertainties, and investors lightened positions in interest rate-sensitive sectors including banks, commercial real estate, and technology.
However, after the Federal Reserve held rates steady for the second time in a row, it cleared the path for the market indexes to advance.
Investors are increasingly hoping that the central bank will be able to engineer a soft landing, simultaneously slowing economic growth and inflation without causing widespread job losses.
In today's trading, benchmark indexes extended this week's rally on the rising hope of the economy humming along at a slower pace and slowing the price increases to a more acceptable level.
The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite staged strong comebacks in November, 7% and 9%, respectively, after fears of higher rates receded and softer inflation in October contributed to the market's advance.
Wholesale Prices Post Largest Monthly Drop Since April 2020
The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, declined 0.5% from the previous month in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
On an annual basis, the producer price index increased by 1.3%.
Wholesale price inflation fell at the fastest pace in a single month since April 2020, after good prices declined 1.4% following a rise since May and service prices were unchanged after advancing for six consecutive months.
Retail Sales Declined After Rising Six Consecutive Months
After rising for six months in a row, retail and food services sales declined 0.1% in October from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday.
Retail sales data adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors but not for inflation, suggesting higher prices are keeping consumer spending in check.
On an annual basis, retail sales rose 2.5% in October from an upwardly revised 4.1% in September.
Sales in the three-month period between August and October rose 3.1% from the same period a year ago.
Retail trade sales decreased 0.2% from September and increased 1.6% from a year ago; gasoline station sales were down 7.5% from a year ago; and sales at nonstore retailers increased 7.6% from a year ago.
U.S. Indexes and Yields
The S&P 500 index jumped 0.4% to 4,512.09, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% to 14,134.89.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes increased to 4.88%, 10-year Treasury notes inched higher to 4.49%, and 30-year Treasury bonds edged up to 4.66%.
Crude oil decreased $1.68 to $76.57 a barrel, and natural gas prices rose 7 cents to $3.18 a thermal unit.
Gold decreased $1.68 to $1,960.94 an ounce after bond yields traded in a narrow range.
The dollar index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 104.39.
U.S. Stock Movers
Target Corp. soared 14.2% to $126.65 after the retailer reported positive quarterly results.
Comparable sales in the third quarter declined 4.9%, and declines in discretionary categories were partially offset by an increase in daily necessities categories, including beauty.
Total revenue declined 4.2% to $25.4 billion, net income in the quarter advanced 36.3% to $971 million from $712 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $2.10 from $1.54 a year ago.
Inventory at the end of the quarter was 14% lower than a year ago, after a 19% decline in discretionary category inventories.
The company guided fourth-quarter comparable store sales to decline in a wider range around the mid-single digit, reflecting uncertainties about holiday spending.
Advance Auto Parts declined 4.8% to $55.50 after the specialty retailer reported mixed quarterly results.
TJX Companies fell 2.5% to $90.20 after the apparel and household goods retailer reported positive quarterly results, but the company's guidance fell short of some investors' expectations.
Revenue in the third quarter ending in October rose 9% to $13.3 billion from $12.2 billion, net income advanced to $1.2 billion from $1.1 billion, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.03 from 91 cents a year ago.
Comparable store sales in the quarter increased by 6%, slower than 14% a year ago.
U.S. comparable stores at Home Goods chain rose 9% compared to a decline of 16%, and Marmaxx stores (TJ Maxx and Marshall stores) increased 7% compared to 3% increase a year ago, respectively.
Total inventories at the end of the quarter were $8.3 billion, flat compared to a year ago.
During the quarter, the company repurchased $650 million of its own shares, retired 7.2 million shares, and paid $380 million in shareholder dividends.
The company now expects to repurchase approximately $2.25 billion to $2.5 billion of its stock during the fiscal year ending on February 3, 2024.
European Markets Extend Weekly Rally, Euro at2-month High
European stocks extended weekly gains, and bond yields in the region continued to drift lower.
Benchmark indexes in Frankfurt, Paris, and London advanced following the softer inflation report in the U.S.
The weakening of inflation in October to 3.2% from 3.7% in September supported the case for the U.S. Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at the next meeting and remove rate path uncertainties for the next two months.
Closer to home, investors reviewed the Eurozone GDP growth outlook, consumer inflation in France and the UK, and wholesale inflation in Germany.
Euro Area GDP Growth Estimate Lowered
The economic growth in the Euro Area was lowered to 0.6% from the previous estimate of 0.8%, according to the European Commission's Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast.
High inflation and interest rates and weak external demand in the currency union are negatively impacting consumers and businesses.
Among the larger economies in the region, Germany is expected to shrink by 0.3%, but France will grow by 1%, Spain by 2.4%, and Italy by 0.7%.
The commission also held its 2023 inflation estimate at 5.6%, but the slightly higher 2024 estimate was revised to 3.2% from the previous estimate of 2.9%.
UK consumer Price Inflation Dropped to 2-year Low
Consumer price inflation in the UK dropped to a two-year low in October, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The annual inflation rate in the UK dropped to 4.6% in October from 6.7% in September, reflecting the sharp decline in energy and utility costs.
Inflation fell at the fastest pace in a month since 1992 after food price inflation eased to 10.1% from 12.2% in September and a 23% fall in energy price cap to £1,923 from £2,500 a year ago.
Despite the decline in inflation, prices are still rising at a faster pace than the 2% target set by the Bank of England.
French Inflation Eased in October
In France, consumer price inflation declined to 4% in October from 4.9% in September, the statistical agency INSEE reported on Wednesday.
Weaker energy prices and rising interest rates played a key role in weakening inflation.
Energy price inflation slowed to 5.2% from 11.9%, reflecting a decline in gas prices and fuel prices.
Food price inflation eased to 7.8% from 9.7% in September, and inflation slowed for the seventh consecutive month.
However, the core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, declined to a 16-month low of 4.2% from 4.6%.
Europe Indexes and Yields
The DAX index increased 0.8% to 15,748.17, the CAC-40 index advanced 0.3% to 7,209.61, and the FTSE 100 index rose 0.6% to 7,486.91.
The yield on 10-year German bonds declined to 2.59%; French bonds traded lower to 3.16%; the UK gilts eased to 4.17%; and Italian bonds inched lower to 4.40%.
The euro rebounded to $1.086, the British pound at $1.246, and the U.S. dollar at 88.79 Swiss cents.
Brent crude decreased $1.46 to $81.06 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas edged lower by €0.57 to €47.04 per MWh.
Europe Stock Movers
Alstom SA plunged 20.4% to €11.29 after the company struggled with rising inventories and challenges integrating recent acquisitions.
The French train maker is expected to cut as many as 1,500 jobs, lower its debt by €2 billion, and sell some of its key assets.
Chief executive Henri Poupart-Lafarge said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that the company may consider raising capital through an equity offering after exhausting other alternatives.
Infineon Technologies AG increased 6.7% to €32.67 after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results in the fiscal fourth quarter and also held out for higher sales in the current quarter.
Siemens Energy AG advanced 4.6% to €10.72 after the company secured €7.5 billion in project-related guarantees from the German government.
Tullow Oil plc gained 7.3% to 35.96 pence after the company lifted its 2023 cash flow outlook.
Experian plc increased 6.8% to 2,865.0 pence after the credit card data company reported an increase in first-half profit.
Alcon AG declined 6.5% to CHF 63.94 after the Swiss eye-care company reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter sales.
Monthly Wholesale Inflation Edged Lower In October
Brian Turner
15 Nov, 2023
New York City
The producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, declined 0.5% from the previous month in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
On an annual basis, the producer price index increased by 1.3%.
Wholesale price inflation fell at the fastest pace in a single month since April 2020, after good prices declined 1.4% following a rise since May and service prices were unchanged after advancing for six consecutive months.
Retail Sales Declined After Rising Six Consecutive Months
Brian Turner
15 Nov, 2023
New York City
After rising for six months in a row, retail and food services sales declined 0.1% in October from the previous month, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Wednesday.
Retail sales data adjusted for calendar and seasonal factors but not for inflation, suggesting higher prices are keeping consumer spending in check.
On an annual basis, retail sales rose 2.5% in October from an upwardly revised 4.1% in September.
Sales in the three-month period between August and October rose 3.1% from the same period a year ago.
Retail trade sales decreased 0.2% from September and increased 1.6% from a year ago; gasoline station sales were down 7.5% from a year ago; and sales at nonstore retailers increased 7.6% from a year ago.
Core Inflation Dropped to 2-year Low but Stayed Significantly Ahead of Fed's Target Rate
Brian Turner
14 Nov, 2023
New York City
The consumer price index, the measure of consumer inflation, slowed to 3.2% in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The annual rate of inflation in October fell from 3.7% in September and August, but the monthly inflation measure was unchanged from the previous month.
Inflation eased largely because of a sharp decline in energy prices of 4.5%, compared to a decline of 0.5% in September.
Core inflation, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.0% from a year ago and edged up 0.2% from the previous month, indicating stubborn and well-anchored inflation in the broader economy.
U.S. Movers: Advanced Auto Parts, TJX, Target Corp
Scott Peters
15 Nov, 2023
New York City
Target Corp. soared 14.2% to $126.65 after the retailer reported positive quarterly results.
Comparable sales in the third quarter declined 4.9%, and declines in discretionary categories were partially offset by an increase in daily necessities categories, including beauty.
Total revenue declined 4.2% to $25.4 billion, net income in the quarter advanced 36.3% to $971 million from $712 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $2.10 from $1.54 a year ago.
Inventory at the end of the quarter was 14% lower than a year ago, after a 19% decline in discretionary category inventories.
The company guided fourth-quarter comparable store sales to decline in a wider range around the mid-single digit, reflecting uncertainties about holiday spending.
Advanced Auto Parts declined 4.8% to $55.50 after the specialty retailer reported mixed quarterly results.
Revenue in the quarter increased by 2.9% to $2.7 billion, and comparable store sales increased by 1.2%.
The company swung to a net loss of $48.6 million from a profit of $115.9 million, and diluted earnings per share fell to a loss of 82 cents from $1.92 a year ago.
The company tightened its 2023 net sales outlook range to between $11.25 billion and $11.30 billion from the previous range between $11.25 billion and $11.35 billion.
The retailer sharply lowered its 2023 diluted earnings per share range to between $1.40 and $1.80 from the previous estimate of between $4.50 and $5.10 in August.
The company also lowered its 2023 free cash flow range to between $50 million and $100 million from the previous estimate of between $150 million and $250 million.
On October 31, the company declared a regular cash dividend of 25 cents per share to be paid on January 26, 2024, to all common stockholders of record as of January 12, 2024.
TJX Companies fell 2.5% to $90.20 after the apparel and household goods retailer reported positive quarterly results, but the company's guidance fell short of some investors' expectations.
Revenue in the third quarter ending in October rose 9% to $13.3 billion from $12.2 billion, net income advanced to $1.2 billion from $1.1 billion, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.03 from 91 cents a year ago.
Comparable store sales in the quarter increased by 6%, slower than 14% a year ago.
U.S. comparable stores at Home Goods chain rose 9% compared to a decline of 16%, and Marmaxx stores (TJ Maxx and Marshall stores) increased 7% compared to 3% increase a year ago, respectively.
Total inventories at the end of the quarter were $8.3 billion, flat compared to a year ago.
During the quarter, the company repurchased $650 million of its own shares, retired 7.2 million shares, and paid $380 million in shareholder dividends.
The company now expects to repurchase approximately $2.25 billion to $2.5 billion of its stock during the fiscal year ending on February 3, 2024.
TJX estimated comparable sales in the fourth quarter to increase between 3% and 4%, and diluted earnings per share between $1.07 and $1.10.
For the fiscal year ending on February 4, 2024, the retailer estimated comparable sales to increase between 4% and 5% and diluted earnings per share between $3.71 and $3.74, including the benefit of the 53rd week.