Low-Hire, Low-Fire Job Market Signals Rising Recession Risks

Barry Adams
17 Dec, 2025
New York City

Stocks on Wall Street faced headwinds for the third consecutive session as investors reviewed labor market and consumer spending updates. 

The S&P 500 index decreased 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.3% after the release of November and October payroll data. 

The uneven hirings in October and November confirmed the ongoing pattern over the last seven months, as businesses of all sizes struggle with macroeconomic uncertainty. 

The U.S. economy added 64,000 net new jobs in November, and payrolls shrank by 105,000 in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. 

In addition, the jobless rate increased to a four-year high of 4.6%, as employers focus on restructuring businesses and more people seek employment as they face affordability issues. 

The U.S. job market has stagnated since April, as employers avoid increasing staff and hold on to increasing current employees amid economic uncertainty and a steep increase in goods tariffs.  

The weakness in the broader economy has been overshadowed by investment in data centers to facilitate the use of artificial intelligence, but consumers have turned cautious amid elevated food prices and cost of shelter. 

At least 500,000 small and medium businesses are likely to disappear in 2025, and the number of job seekers expanded to 7.8 million at the end of November.  

 

U.S. Movers 

Lennar Corp. decreased 4% to $112.98 after the Miami-based homebuilder reported weaker-than-estimated quarterly results and a lukewarm outlook for the current quarter. 

Total revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter ending in November decreased to $9.4 billion from $9.9 billion, net earnings dropped to $497.9 million from $1.1 billion, and diluted earnings per share eased to $1.93 from $4.06 a year ago. 

Lennar said new orders in the quarter increased 18% to $20,018, and the backlog was 13,936 homes worth $5.2 billion. 

The home builder estimated home deliveries between 17,000 and 18,000 in the fiscal first quarter and a gross margin of 15% to 16%, disappointing some investors.