U.S. Investors Debated Future Rate Paths Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Barry Adams
08 Dec, 2025
New York City

Wall Street indexes flatlined in Monday's trading, and traders held out for a possible rate cut on Wednesday. 

The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite edged slightly higher, and investors debated the future U.S. rate path amid macroeconomic uncertainties. 

The widely followed benchmark indexes advanced for the second week in a row and registered their seventh weekly gain in the last ten weeks. 

Stock market indexes have been meandering over the last few sessions, ahead of the Fed's rate decisions on Wednesday. 

The Fed's rate-setting committee is widely expected to lower the Fed funds rate range by 25 basis points, overlooking higher-for-longer inflation following the introduction of steep tariffs on imported goods by the Trump administration. 

The Federal Reserve is also expected to revise higher its 2026 estimates of jobless rates and inflation at the end of its 2-day policy meeting on December 10. 

 

This Week's Earnings and Economic Calendar 

This week less than 100 companies are set to release their quarterly results, and the U.S. federal agencies catch up to release delayed macroeconomic data. 

The JOLTs reports for September and October are likely to show job openings around 7.2 million, confirming businesses are reluctant to expand payrolls amid broader economic uncertainties. 

September's international trade deficit is expected to widen to $66 billion, amid persistent goods imports from Asia and Europe and energy imports from Canada and the Middle East.  

On the earnings front, Adobe, Oracle, Broadcom, Toll Brothers, Casey's General, Designer Brands, Chewy, and Oxford Industries are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week. 

 

China's Goods Trade Surplus Crossed One Trillion in 2025

In Asia, China's exports rose at a faster-than-expected pace in November and jumped 5.9% to $330.3 billion, and imports advanced 1.9% to $218.7 billion. 

China's goods trade surplus rose to $1.1 trillion in the first eleven months to November, confirming rising shipments to the non-U.S. markets.

Shipments to the ASEAN region soared 8.2%, to the European Union jumped 14.8%, and to Japan advanced 4.3%, but slumped by 28.6% to the U.S. 

U.S. importers pulled forward orders between April and June, ahead of the implementation of steep tariffs, and avoided holiday-period disruptions. However, the shipment growth supported by the front loading appears to have run its course. 

 

Japan's GDP and Wage Data Complicates BoJ's Rate Decisions 

Japan's GDP in the third quarter contracted 0.6% from the previous quarter, faster than the 0.4% decline estimated previously.  

The economy contracted on a quarterly basis for the first time since the first quarter of 2024, driven by a weakness in business spending growth. 

On an annual basis, GDP growth slowed to 1.1% in the third quarter from the 2.0% annual pace in the second quarter. 

Japan's real wages declined 0.7% in October and fell for the second consecutive month, according to data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare. 

Nominal wages, which include overtime payment, rose 2.6% from a year ago to 300,141 yen and advanced for the 46th month in a row. 

Despite the increase, real wages decreased after adjusting for inflation of 3.4% in the month.