U.S. and Global Markets Retained Upward Bias Ahead of Rate Decisions from Major Central Banks

Barry Adams
15 Sep, 2025
New York City

Wall Street indexes on Monday edged higher and extended the previous week's gains. 

The S&P 500 index advanced 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.1%, as investors shift focus to the Fed's rate decisions this week.

Investors are hoping that the recent reports on employment and inflation will convince policymakers to lower rates after the policy meeting on Thursday.

The Federal Reserve's policy committee members are struggling to balance the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

While inflation is contained but far from the Fed's target rate of 2%, policymakers are worried about the lagging impact of the sharp escalation in import taxes on goods. 

Moreover, job market conditions are deteriorating as businesses are not firing but also not hiring new employees, and the average increase in payrolls in the past three months to August fell to 29,000. 

Stock market indexes are creating new peaks, but the broader economy is showing signs of exhaustion from the Trump administration's erratic trade policy.

Businesses are stalling investment decisions, farmers are suffering from the collapse in corn and soybean prices, the manufacturing sector is shrinking employment, and construction projects are struggling amid an exodus of migrants.

At least one-third of independent farmers are likely to face bankruptcy if the Trump administration fails to strike a trade deal with China.

Moreover, as many as 150,000 independent retailers, importers, and distributors are likely to go out of business by the end of 2025, following the sharp hike in import duties.

In the week ahead, the Fed's rate decisions and quarterly results from key companies are likely to dominate trading sentiment. 

The central bank is expected to resume its rate cut campaign on Thursday, and investors are anticipating a rate cut of at least 25 basis points. 

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to lower the fed funds rate range to between 4.0% and 4.25% and update its inflation, jobless rate, and economic growth outlook for 2025. 

Moreover, retail sales in August are expected to show an annual increase of at least 3%, while industrial output is likely to stall. 

On the earnings front, investors are looking forward to quarterly results from General Mills, Cracker Barrel, Dave & Buster's Entertainment, FedEx, Darden Restaurants, Progressive Corp., FactSet Research, and Scholastic Corp.

The central banks of the UK, Japan, and Norway are set to announce their rate decisions this week. 

 

U.S. Stock Movers 

Tesla Inc. soared 7.7% to $426.26 after a regulatory filing with the SEC showed that the company's chief executive, Elon Musk, acquired a total of $1.01 billion worth of its stock on Friday. 

Nvidia Corp. decreased 1.6% to $174.87 after a Chinese regulator said that the advanced chipmaker violated the country's anti-monopoly law.