Escalating Global Trade Tensions and Rising Geopolitical Worries Keep Stock Market Indexes In Check

Alexander Garcia
18 Nov, 2024
Miami

Stock market indexes on Wall Street traded higher and overcame morning doldrums amid a positive outlook for the upcoming earnings later in the week. 

The S&P 500 index inched up 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.6% in the hopes that Walmart, TJX, Lowe's, Nvidia, and Palo Alto Networks will deliver better-than-expected quarterly results. 

Nvidia is scheduled to release its quarterly results on Wednesday, and the artificial intelligence application chip maker's stock declined 2% on a report that the company's chips are overheating in certain server configurations. 

Last week, stock market indexes around the world declined as investors digested the rising possibilities of escalating trade tensions turning into full-blown trade wars. 

U.S. major averages dropped after Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled a lack of urgency for future rate cuts, citing strong economy and labor market conditions. 

In addition, post-U.S. elections rally wavered for two consecutive weeks after the reality of chaotic administration, unhinged presidential leadership, and an extreme tariff policy agenda began to set in. 

Trump's tariffs, income tax cuts, and deportation plans are estimated to drive the federal government deficit by an additional $8 trillion over the four-year term, increase annual inflation by as much as 2 percentage points, and contribute to labor shortages in the agriculture, hospitality, and construction industries. 

Stock market indexes in the first quarter of 2025 are likely to face stiff headwinds as the next administration implements its economic agenda. 

In the week ahead, a private survey of the U.S. manufacturing sector is expected to confirm an ongoing contraction, but growth in the service sector is likely to pick up.

In addition, investors are looking forward to the release of housing building permits, starts, and completion data later in the week. 

 

U.S. Indexes and Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 index increased 0.4% to 5,895.90, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% to 18,803.02, and the Russell 2000 index added 0.8% to 2,321.67. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged higher to 4.34%, 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 4.48%, and 30-year Treasury bonds decreased to 4.66%.

WTI crude oil increased $1.87 to $68.89 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged up 9 cents to $2.91 a thermal unit.

Gold decreased by $48.61 to $2,611.21 an ounce, and silver increased by $1.01 to $31.23.

The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 106.70.

 

European Stock Indexes Retain Negative Bias

Stock market indexes in Europe edged lower in Monday's trading as investors debated the future rate path and the impact of the potential escalation of trade tensions with the U.S. and China. 

Benchmark indexes in Paris, Milan, Frankfurt, and London traded in a tight range with a downward bias, and the U.S. dollar edged higher as investors lowered expectations for additional rate cuts in the near future. 

On the economic front, the international goods trade balance of the eurozone in October increased, and Spain's trade deficit shrank. 

 

Spain's Trade Gap Shrank 

Spain's international trade gap shrank to €3.3 billion in September from €3.8 billion a year ago, the ministry of industry, commerce, and tourism reported Monday. 

Goods exports increased 1.9% to €31.6 billion, and goods imports advanced 0.1% to €34.9 billion. 

Trade deficit over the nine-month period ending in September 2024 shrank to €27.1 billion from €29.6 billion a year ago. 

 

Eurozone Trade Surplus Widened

The Euro Area trade surplus widened to €12.5 billion in September from €9.8 billion in August, according to a report released by Eurostat. 

Exports increased 0.6% to €237.8 billion, and imports fell 0.6% to €225.3 billion. 

This week, investors are looking forward to the release of manufacturing surveys in the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the U.K.

Moreover, Switzerland is set to release its international trade data later this week. 

 

Europe Indexes and Yields

The DAX index decreased by 0.2% to 19,176.21; the CAC-40 index gained by 0.05% to 7,273.38; and the FTSE 100 index rose by 0.6% to 8,109.32. 

The yield on 10-year German bonds edged higher to 2.37%, French bonds inched higher to 3.11%, the UK gilts edged lower to 4.48%, and Italian bonds increased to 3.59%.

The euro edged lower to $1.05; the British pound inched down to $1.26; and the U.S. dollar strengthened to 88.72 Swiss cents.

Brent crude increased $1.90 to $72.94 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas rose by €1.12 to €46.86 per MWh. 

 

Europe Stock Movers

Melrose Industries PLC increased 6.3% to 520.20 pence after the parent company GKN Aerospace said revenue for the four-month period ending in October increased 7%. 

The company also reiterated its annual outlook for the remainder of the year. 

Elementis plc increased 0.3% to 135.40 pence, and the specialty chemical company said its chief executive officer Paul Waterman would step down after nine years in the office. 

Vivendi SE declined 1.6% to €8.94, and the French media company announced its expectations of revenue for its television business. 

The company is set to separate its Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette Group on the London Stock Exchange on December 16 following the shareholder vote on December 9.

The company forecast Canal+ revenue growth in 2024 to match the rate in 2023, but the revenue in 2025 will be negatively impacted by the termination of its free-to-air channel C8 and the ending of expensive third-party content contracts. 

 

Japan Indexes Weighed Down by Rate Path Worries

Stock market indexes in Tokyo declined following losses in Friday's trading in New York. 

The Nikkei average and the Topix index fell more than 0.7% amid worry about the interest rate path in the near future. 

Last week, U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there is no urgency in lowering rates in the imminent future, citing strong economic growth. 

Powell's comments raised the prospects of fewer and smaller rate cuts over the next three months, weighing on the market sentiment. 

The yen dropped to 154.55 against the U.S. dollar on the worry that the Bank of Japan may continue its gradual approach in raising interest rates. 

Currency traders are bracing for the yen to sink to as low as 165 against the U.S. dollar if rising trade tensions between China and the U.S. lead to competitive currency devaluation in the region. 

 

Core Machinery Orders Fell In September 

Investors reacted negatively to a surprise decline in Japan's machinery orders in September. 

Core machinery orders, which exclude large and volatile orders for ships and power equipment, declined 4.8% from a year ago in September. 

Core machinery orders decline accelerated from a fall of 3.4% in August, according to an update released by the Cabinet Office. 

On a monthly basis, core orders declined for the third month in a row and fell 0.7% to 852 billion yen in September. 

 

Japan Stock Movers 

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 1% to 38,238.42 and decreased 0.7% to 2,693.09. 

Semiconductor-linked equipment makers led the decliners in Tokyo trading. 

Tokyo Electron declined 1.8% to ¥21,945.0, Screen Holdings fell 1.9% to ¥9,342.0, Lasertec dropped 2.9% to ¥17,700.0, and Advantest decreased 0.4% to ¥9,100.0. 

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial declined 2% to ¥3,558.0, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial decreased 0.7% to ¥1,810.50, and Mizuho Financial fell 0.6% to ¥3,742.0. 

Dentsu Group dropped 10.5% to ¥3,687.0 after the advertising company reported mixed quarterly results. 

The company reported a modest 0.3% increase in revenue in the third quarter but also revised its annual outlook to flat from the previous estimate of a 1% increase. 

Chugai Pharmaceutical plunged 10.1% to ¥6,427.0, and Otsuka Holdings decreased 4% to ¥8,758.0. 

Ryohin Keikaku gained 5.5% to ¥2,938.0, M3 added 5.6% to ¥1,320.0, Taise advanced 2.5% to ¥6,746.0, and Mercari increased 3.2% to ¥1,987.0. 

 

A Rebound In Bank Stocks Leads China Indexes Higher 

Stock market indexes in mainland China and Hong Kong advanced following a rise in banks and tech stocks. 

The Hang Seng index advanced 1%, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index added 0.9%, but market sentiment remained shaky amid rising geopolitical tensions. 

Market indexes have been under pressure over the last seven weeks after politicians and policymakers failed to follow through with "whatever it takes" fiscal stimulus. 

In addition, market sentiment was shaky on the worry that the next U.S. administration is likely to ramp up trade tariffs on goods made in China and made by Chinese companies in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico. 

Banks traded higher after the China Securities Regulatory Commission urged banks to disclose plans to lift their stock prices above the book value. 

The regulatory agency released a statement after the market close on Friday and urged company boards to take an active role in lifting their stock prices. 

Over the last 12 years, leading nine Chinese banks have traded below their book value, reflecting investor concerns about lurking bad loans in the property sector and obligations to the central government for national priority projects. 

Of the total of 29 banks traded in mainland China, about 22 are trading below their book value as investors worry that bad loans issued to state-controlled property developers are not fully reflected in their financial statements. 

 

China Stock Movers 

The Hang Seng index increased 1% to 19,619.87, and the mainland-focused CSI 300 index advanced 0.9% to 4,002.89. 

China Merchants Bank increased 0.7% to ¥38.11, ICBC gained 2.9% to HK $4.72, China Construction Bank gained 0.6% to HK $6.03, and Bank of China added 3.9% to HK $3.75. 

Property stocks traded higher in the hopes of additional reforms from the People's Bank of China and policymakers.

China Vanke increased 2.5% to HK $6.56, China Resources Land gained 1.7% to HK $24.05, and Longfor Group Holdings edged up 0.3% to HK $11.40. 

Alibaba Group Holding declined 1.9% to HK $85.60 after the e-commerce platform operator reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results. 

JD.com jumped 4% to HK $138.0, and Tencent Holdings advanced 0.8% to HK $404.20.