Higher-for-Longer Rate Worries Sink S&P 500 and Nasdaq 1.5%

Alexander Garcia
23 Oct, 2024
Miami

Stock market indexes on Wall Street traded down for the third session in a row as bond yields advanced. 

The S&P 500 index declined 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%, and crude oil prices dropped 2% amid rising supply. 

Market indexes were under pressure for the third day in a row as the yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked higher to a three-month high of 4.24%. 

Strong economic data and growing worries of budget deficits dampened market sentiment ahead of the presidential election on November 5. 

On the earnings front, Starbucks, Coca-Cola Company, Boeing, and Seagate Technology declined after releasing their quarterly results. 

 

U.S. Indexes and Treasury Yields

The S&P 500 index decreased 0.9% to 5,799.23, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5% to 18,295.53, and the Russell 2000 index declined 0.9% to 2,211.62. 

For the year so far as of Monday, the S&P 500 index is up 22%, the Nasdaq Composite has advanced 26%, and the Russell 2000 index has gained 10.9%. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes edged higher to 4.06%, 10-year Treasury notes inched up to 4.25%, and 30-year Treasury bonds inched higher to 4.53%.

WTI crude oil decreased $1.06 to $70.69 a barrel, and natural gas prices edged up 1 cent to $2.29 a thermal unit.

Gold fell by $26.44 to $2,720.44 an ounce, and silver decreased by $1.04 to $33.68.

The dollar index, which weighs the US currency against a basket of foreign currencies, edged higher to 104.44.

 

U.S. Stock Movers

Texas Instruments increased 2.5% to $198.85 after the advanced semiconductor reported better-than-expected quarterly results.

Revenue in the third quarter declined 8% to $4.2 billion from $4.5 billion, net income dropped 20% to $1.36 billion from $1.70 billion, and diluted earnings per share fell 21% to $1.47 from $1.85 a year ago. 

The company estimated fourth quarter revenue to fall between $3.70 and $4.0 billion and diluted earnings per share between $1.07 and $1.29. 

Manhattan Associates dropped 5.6% to $276.0 after the supply chain software developer's revenue growth outlook fell short of market expectations. 

Revenue in the third quarter increased to $266.7 million from $238.4 million, net income advanced to $63.8 million from $49.4 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.03 from 79 cents a year ago. 

The company estimated full-year 2024 revenue between $1.039 and $1.041 billion, an increase of 12% from a year ago. 

The company estimated diluted earnings per share to range between $3.47 and $3.49, an increase of about 23% from a year ago. 

McDonald's Corp. decreased 6.7% to $293.54 after the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak was linked to the company's Quarter Pounder burgers.

The CDC said that the outbreak has resulted in the death of one person and the hospitalization of 10 people. 

Starbucks Corp. fell 3.6% to $93.38 after the coffee chain operator suspended its 2025 outlook and reported a decline in sales in its fiscal fourth quarter. 

Coca-Cola Co. declined 2.5% to $67.70 after the beverage maker reported slightly higher-than-expected quarterly earnings. 

Adjusted revenue in the third quarter was flat at $1.95 billion, and unit case volume fell 1%, largely driven by the weakness in its international markets. 

Net income attributable to shareholders declined to $2.85 billion from $3.09 billion, and diluted earnings per share fell to 66 cents from 71 cents a year earlier. 

 

European Markets Extend Losses to Fourth Day Amid Mixed Earnings 

Stock market indexes in Europe edged lower and extended this week's losses as investors reviewed a fresh batch of earnings. 

Benchmark indexes in Paris, London, and Frankfurt edged lower, gold traded at a new high, and crude oil prices rebounded for the third day in a row. 

Investors are looking forward to the release of the UK's autumn budget as the recently elected Labor government releases its first budget. 

The government is struggling to balance its spending priorities while keeping additional borrowing low, as the national debt hovers near record high. 

The UK's public sector net debt was £2.55 trillion at the end of August, about 92% of GDP, according to the latest data available from the Office for National Statistics. 

 

Europe Indexes and Yields

The DAX index decreased by 0.2% to 19,377.62; the CAC-40 index fell by 0.5% to 7,497.48; and the FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.6% to 8,258.64. 

The yield on 10-year German bonds edged lower to 2.30%, French bonds inched higher to 3.04%, the UK gilts edged up to 4.20%, and Italian bonds increased to 3.53%.

The euro edged lower to $1.08; the British pound inched higher to $1.29; and the U.S. dollar strengthened to 86.65 Swiss cents.

Brent crude increased $1.21 to $74.91 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas rose by €0.36 to €41.43 per MWh. 

 

Europe Stock Movers

WPP PLC increased 4.3% to 806.60 pence after the company reported organic revenue growth of 3.3% in the third quarter. 

L'Oreal SA declined 3.7% to €353.60 after the French cosmetic maker reported weaker-than-expected sales in the third quarter. 

Thales SA decreased 1.8% to €151.25 after the defense electronics maker reported a rise in orders and sales in the nine-month period. 

Deutsche Bank dropped 2.1% to €15.97 after the German bank returned to profit in the third quarter but flagged credit risks. 

Revenue in the third quarter increased 5% to €7.5 billion, and pre-tax profit excluding Post Bank litigation advanced 6% to €1.8 billion from €1.7 billion. 

Provision for credit losses increased to €494 million from €245 million, indicating softer macroeconomic conditions. 

ATOSS Software decreased 0.6% to €131.20 after the German workforce management company reported higher revenue in the nine-month period. 

Revenue increased 14% to €125.9 million from €110.3 million, driven by a 37% jump in cloud services revenue to €52.7 million.

The company estimated 2024 revenue of €170 million, an operating margin of 33%, and forecast 2025 revenue of at least €190 million and an operating margin of at least 30%. 

Ipsen SA dropped 0.7% to €114.30 despite the French biopharmaceutical company reporting a strong increase in revenue in the third quarter. 

Revenue increased 8.3% to €836.6 million, and the company lifted its 2024 constant-currency revenue growth estimate to 8% from 7% and core operating margin to increase to 31% from 30%. 

Air Liquide decreased 1.2% to €169.18 after the industrial gas supplier reported third quarter revenue in line with market expectations. 

 

Japan's Election Outcome May Surprise Investors, Tokyo Metro Soars 45% 

Stocks in Tokyo declined for the third day in a row as investors turned cautious ahead of general elections this Sunday. 

The Nikkei 225 stock average decreased 0.8%, the broader Topix index declined 0.5%, and the yen traded at 152.45 against the U.S. dollar. 

Investors stayed on the sidelines after several polls suggested that the ruling party LDP and its coalition partner Komeito may not return to power amid widespread voter dissatisfaction. 

Since 2013, the Liberal Democratic Party has been in office, but the party has been engulfed in a corruption scandal, and voters are also unhappy about the rising cost of living amid stagnant wages. 

The LDP is likely to lose as many as 40 seats in the upcoming election of the current 247 held by the ruling party. 

Komeito, the member of the ruling coalition, is also expected to lose as many as 9 seats from the current 32 seats held in the lower house of the parliament. 

LDP needs at least 233 seats in the 465-seat Diet, the lower house of the parliament, and the ruling party is likely to lose several seats outside of major cities. 

On the other hand, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is likely to increase its tally of seats to as many as 130 from the current 98, and Nippon Ishi is expected to struggle to hold on to its 44 seats. 

 

Japan Stock Movers 

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average decreased 0.8% to 38,088.07, and the broader Topix index fell 0.5% to 2,638.25. 

Tokyo Metro Co. Ltd. soared more than 45% to 1739 yen on the first day of trading after the railway company priced its initial public offering at 1,200 yen per share. 

The company sold 290.5 million shares and raised 348.6 billion yen, or $2.3 billion, in the largest public offering in six years. 

The company priced its offering on the top end of its filing range between 1,100 yen and 1,200 yen. 

Tokyo Electron declined 1% to ¥22,770.0, Advantest fell 1.1% to ¥7,871.0, Disco Corp. dropped 4.2% to ¥37,680.0, and Lasetec decreased 1.5% to ¥21,025.0. 

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial declined 1.1% to ¥3,124.0, Mitsubishi UFJ decreased 1.5% to ¥1,567.0, and Mizuho Financial fell 1.4% to ¥3,098.0. 

Seven &I Holding dropped 0.8% to ¥2,201.50, Fast Retailing declined 1.7% to ¥50,570.0, and Isetan Mitsukoshi advanced 0.7% to ¥2,227.50. 

Konica Minolta soared 11.5% to ¥533.30, Tokyo Tatemono surged 6.1% to ¥2,463.0, and Asahi Group advanced 3.4% to ¥1,798.0. 

 

Hopes of Fiscal Stimulus and Earnings Growth Keep China Market Indexes Elevated 

Stocks in China and Hong Kong advanced for the second day in a row amid continued hopes of large fiscal stimulus measures to revive consumer confidence and support the flailing property market. 

The Hang Seng index jumped 1.7% and the CSI 300 index advanced 1%, as positive earnings supported market enthusiasm. 

Market indexes have traded volatile in the last two weeks after politicians failed to follow through on promises of large fiscal stimulus following a raft of monetary stimulus measures from the People's Bank of China. 

The Hang Seng index has soared 24%, and the CSI 300 index has advanced 18% in the year so far as of the close of trading on Wednesday. 

Domestic and international investor frenzy pushed market indexes to highs not seen in the last eighteen months, as investors believed that the central government was finally ready to provide necessary support to revive the ailing property market. 

However, those measures will require the central government to assume additional debt and channel funding to local governments to finance residential construction, which also raises the prospects of wasteful spending. 

The legislative committee of the National People's Congress is likely to approve the debt increase between 2 trillion yuan and 4 trillion yuan and the issuance of new sovereign bonds at its next meeting over the next two weeks. 

China has increasingly relied on excessive government spending to meet its high economic growth target with weak returns, which also leads to large-scale corruption and wateful infrastructure projects that are not needed for the local economy. 

Despite Beijing's leadership's efforts to prop the economy, China's economic growth is estimated to slow down to below 3% over the next three years, which will put additional pressure on the central government to increase debt-funded spending. 

On the earnings front, 22 companies are slated to release their quarterly results over the next two weeks, and investors are hoping that earnings growth will surpass market expectations. 

 

China Stock Movers 

The Hang Seng index jumped 1.7% to 20,852.12, and the mainland China-focused CSI 300 index advanced 1.0% to 3,995.81. 

China Resources Beverage advanced 14% to HK $16.50 after the soft drink maker sold 347 million shares in a global offering priced at HK$14.50 per share. 

The soft drink maker raised HK$4.9 billion, and the company's Hong Kong tranche, covering 40% of the offering, was over subscribed by 234.5 times and the international tranche by 24.5 times.    

China Unicom increased 3.5% to HK $7.09 after the telecom carrier said third quarter earnings rose 7.9% from a year ago. 

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group jumped 9% to HK $7.92 after comments from Morgan Stanley suggested same-store sales decline in the current month narrowed. 

Alibaba Group increased 0.7% to HK $97.90, JD.com advanced 3.1% to HK $159.10, Tencent Holdings added 2% to HK $430.20, and Baidu rose 0.7% to HK $88.95. 

BYD gained 2.2% to HK $290.80, Li Auto added 7.5% to HK $108.60, and Xiaomi Corp. added 5.1% to HK $25.70.