Stocks and Precious Metals Surged In November, Crude Oil Eased

Barry Adams
30 Nov, 2023
New York City

Benchmark indexes lacked direction on the final day of November, and investors reviewed the latest batch of economic reports and earnings updates.

The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite are set to close November with strong gains, primarily driven by optimism about future interest rate direction.

The S&P 500 index is up 8.5% and the Nasdaq Composite is ahead by 11%, and those gains were the best monthly gains since July 2022.

Moreover, market indexes are inching closer to their 2023 highs, and the indexes are expected to retain an upward bias in the two months ahead.

Market optimism was bolstered by the latest update on personal consumption expenditure. Prices are rising at a slower pace, and personal income and spending after adjusting for inflation are still rising.

In other economic news, initial jobless claims for the week ending on November 25th rose by 7,000 to 218,000 from the revised 211,000 claims in the prior week, the Department of Labor reported Thursday.

Pending home sales declined 1.5% from the previous month in October, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

Home sales dropped to the lowest level since record-keeping began in 2001, as higher mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and limited home inventory kept buyers away.

Pending home sales dropped 8.5% from a year ago in the month, following an upwardly revised 11.2% decline in September.

Investors also reacted to the fresh batch of earnings, and Salesforce, Pure Storage, Snowflake, and Five Below were in focus.

 

Inflation Gauge: PCE Price Index Slowed in October

The personal consumption expenditure price index was flat on a monthly basis in October, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.

The alternative watered-down measure of inflation was the weakest since July 2022, after rising 0.4% in September and August.

The inflation measure understates inflation because it considers buyer behavior after consumers substitute high-priced goods for cheaper alternatives, but the inflation measure is one of the most closely watched indicators by the Federal Reserve's policymakers.

The annual rate also slowed to 3.0% from 3.4% in September, a low level not seen since March 2021.

Moreover, the annual core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, eased to 3.5% from 3.7%, a new low in 27 months.

Personal income and spending inched up 0.2% from the previous month, the monthly report showed.

 

U.S. Indexes and Yields

The S&P 500 index edged up 0.2% to 4,574.18, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.2% to 14,282.09.

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes decreased to 4.67%, 10-year Treasury notes inched higher to 4.30%, and 30-year Treasury bonds were unchanged at 4.47%.

Crude oil prices lacked direction after the OPEC+ members agreed to a collective production cut of one million barrels a day, and Saudi Arabia is expected to announce its voluntary production cut of one million barrels a day.

WTI crude oil increased $0.82 to $78.68 a barrel, and natural gas prices rose 2 cents to $2.82 a thermal unit.

WTI crude oil prices declined 6% in November and extended the 9.4% loss in October after uneven recovery in China, global economic uncertainties, and a lack of clarity of oil supplies from U.S.-sanctioned Iran and Venezuela weighed on the commodity prices.

Both the WTI and Brent crude oil prices are down 6.5% and 7.0% in the year so far.

Brazil is set to join the influential OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations in 2024, according to Brazilian Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira.

Gold decreased $4.40 to $2,039.90 an ounce after the U.S. dollar eased, but increased 2.8% in November and extended gains for the second month in a row.

The price of yellow metal jumped 13.1% in the year so far, and silver prices have advanced 10.2% in the month and 10.8% in the year so far.

The dollar index, which weighs the U.S. dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, edged lower to 103.23.

 

U.S. Stock Movers

Five Below was nearly unchanged at $188.0 after the deep discount retailer reported its third-quarter results.

Revenue in the third quarter increased 14.2% to $736.4 million from $645.0 million, and comparable store sales rose 2.5% from a year ago.

Net income in the quarter declined to $14.6 million from $16.1 million, and diluted earnings per share fell to 26 cents from 29 cents a year ago.

The company repurchased 500,000 shares in the third quarter at a cost of $80 million.

The company estimated net sales in the fourth quarter to be in the range of $1.32 billion to $1.35 billion, including an additional 60 stores, based on a 2% to 3% rise in comparable store sales.

Net income in the fourth quarter is estimated to be in the range of $201 million and $211 million.

Pure Storage plunged 15.7% to $32.17 after the data storage company estimated a lower-than-expected current quarter and annual revenue.

Revenue in the third quarter increased 13% to $762.8 million from $676.1 million; the company swung to net income of $70.4 million from a loss of $0.7 million; and diluted earnings per share were 21 cents compared to breakeven.

Subscription services revenue increased by 26% to $309.6 million, and subscription annual recurring revenue also increased by 26% to $1.3 billion.

Salesforce soared 9.2% to $251.53 after the customer contact management software company reported better-than-expected earnings.

Revenue in the third quarter increased 11% to $8.7 billion from $7.8 billion, net income soared to $1.2 billion from $210 million, and diluted earnings per share rose to $1.25 from 21 cents a year ago.

The company repurchased $1.9 billion of its stock in the third quarter.

The software company estimated fourth-quarter revenue to increase 10% and fall in the range of $9.18 billion and $9.23 billion and narrowed its full-year fiscal 2024 revenue outlook to an increase of 11% to between $34.75 billion and $35.8 billion.

 

European Markets Advanced, Bond Yields and Euro Eased 

European markets edged higher after investors digested the latest inflation report in the eurozone.

Bond yields in the euro area decreased after consumer price inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.4% in November, largely because of the higher comparison base in the previous year.

The latest inflation report confirmed the declining inflation trend, and Spain's inflation eased to 3.2% in November from 3.5%, while Germany's import price inflation declined for the eighth month in a row and fell 13% in November.

Despite the cooling inflation trend, market participants remained nervous after the U.S. GDP growth estimate in the third quarter was revised higher to 5.2% from the previous estimate of 4.9%, stoking fears that the Federal Reserve may consider keeping higher rates for longer in 2024. 

Bond yields eased to new three-month lows, and the euro hovered near its two-month high against the U.S. dollar.

 

German Jobless Rate Increased In November.

Moreover, Germany's seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5.9% in November from 5.8% in the previous month, the Federal Employment Agency reported Thursday.

The unemployment rate rose to the highest level since May 2021, after the number of job seekers increased by 22,000 to 2.702 million.

The number of unemployed rose by 175,000, but the number of job openings declined by 90,000 from a year ago.

 

Eurozone Inflation Eased in November

The consumer price inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.4% from a year ago in November, Eurostat reported Thursday.

Overall inflation declined to the lowest level since July 2021 and eased from 2.9% in October, reflecting weakening energy prices from a year ago.

Meanwhile, the core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, declined to 3.6% from 4.2% in the previous month, the lowest since April 2022.

Energy prices dropped at a faster pace of 11.5% compared to 11.2% in October; food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation slowed to 6.9% from 7.4%; service inflation eased to 4.0% from 4.6%; and non-energy industrial goods inflation inched lower to 2.9% from 3.5%.

 

Europe Indexes and Yields

The DAX index increased 0.4% to 16,234.86, the CAC-40 index rose 0.7% to 7,320.56, and the FTSE 100 index added 0.3% to 7,444.79.

In November, the DAX index increased 9.5%, the CAC-40 index advanced 4.5%, and the FTSE 100 index gained 1.5%. 

The yield on 10-year German bonds decreased to 2.41%; French bonds traded lower to 3.0%; the UK gilts declined to 4.14%; and Italian bonds inched higher to 4.19%.

The euro held at $1.091, the British pound inched lower to $1.264, and the U.S. dollar eased to 87.47 Swiss cents.

Brent crude increased $2.57 to $80.25 a barrel, and the Dutch TTF natural gas increased by €1.70 to €42.06 per MWh.

 

Europe Stock Movers

Mining stocks advanced, tracking higher commodity prices.

Glencore jumped 1.1% to 448.90 pence, Anglo American edged up a fraction to 2,145.20 pence, and Antofagasta rose 0.1% to 1,419.50 pence.

Energy stocks gained in London trading as OPEC+ members meet to discuss production quotas and support higher prices in international markets.

BP gained 2.4% to 485.74 pence, Shell advanced 1.2% to 2,584.50 pence, Repsol inched higher 1.4% to €14.23, and TotalEnergies jumped 1.6% to €62.79.

Banks traded higher after rate hike worries following the easing of inflation in the currency union.

Banco Santander rose 1.0% to €3.84, Deutsche Bank gained 2.1% to €11.50, UniCredit eased 0.2% to €25.26, Barclays added 0.3% to 140.84 pence, and HSBC advanced 0.8% to 599.50 pence.

German industrial engineering and vehicle makers were in focus after the jobless rate eased in November.

Volkswagen Group decreased 0.8% to €105.98, BMW gained 0.1% to €96.18, and Mercedes-Benz Group eased 0.01% to €59.28.

Siemens gained 0.5% to €153.64, ThyssenKrupp eased 1% to €6.95, and MTU Aero Engines decreased 0.6% to €186.65.