U.S. Indexes Trim Weekly Gains, Global Markets Advance

Barry Adams
14 Apr, 2023
New York City

Stocks were on the defensive after a retail sales report overshadowed strong corporate earnings in Friday's trading. 

Benchmark indexes struggled to advance after an unexpected decline in retail sales in March, put investors on alert. 

The report was especially worrisome to investors because retail sales are not adjusted for inflation, indicating consumers are retrenching at a faster pace than previously estimated in the face of rising elevated inflation and rising interest rates. 

Despite the cooling inflation trend for nine months, housing costs are rising across the nation and urban households are facing a surge in rents and other housing expenses, which are under-represented in inflation indexes. 

Lower retail sales also reflect lower gasoline prices at pump stations, but volatile fuel prices can rebound if demand from China picks up and big oil companies turn supplies lower in search of higher prices. 

In other news, leading banks reported rising earnings and revenues defying banking system worries after the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10. 

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, PNC Financial reported quarterly earnings reports that matched or exceeded investor expectations. 

Earnings reports provided fresh insights in the health of the financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. 

Megabanks in some ways are beneficiaries of the developing stress in  regional banks as rapid rise in interest rates negatively impact treasury securities held-to-maturity accounts. 

 

Unadjusted Retail Sales Declined In March 

Retail sales in March declined 1% from the month, following a downwardly revised 0.2% decline in February, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Friday. 

Retail sales from a year ago increased 2.9% and in the first quarter to March rose 5.4% from the previous year. 

The retail sales data are not adjusted for inflation, meaning real sales probably declined more as consumers battle high inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer behavior.  

Lower gasoline prices drove sales at pump stations by 5.5% from the previous month, general merchandise stores sales fell 3%, building materials and garden equipment sales decreased 2.1%, electronics and appliances sales fell 2.1% and motor vehicle sales at dealers eased 1.6%. 

Retail sales at food and beverage stores eased 0.1% from the previous month but rose 5.0% from a year ago. 

Sales at nonstore retailers increased 1.9% from the previous month but rose 12.3% from a year ago and inched up 0.1% from the previous month but rose 13.0% from a year ago at food services and drinking places. 

 

Industrial Production Advanced In March   

Industrial production increased 0.4% from the previous month in March and rose 0.2% from a year ago, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. 

The industrial production index increased 0.5% from a year ago. 

The index for utilities increased 8.4% in March boosted by heating demand after the return to a more seasonal weather following a mild February. 

Manufacturing and mining output fell 0.5% and capacity utilization increased to 79.8%, a rate 0.1 percentage point above the long run fifty year average.   

 

U.S Indexes & Yields 

The S&P 500 index fell 0.2% to 4,137.64 and the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 0.4% to 12,123.47. 

For the week, the S&P 500 index gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.35. 

Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advanced in four of the last five weeks. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes increased to 4.09%, 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.51% and 30-year Treasury bonds increased to 3.74%. 

Crude oil price increased 38 cents to $82.54 a barrel and natural gas price added 10 cents to $2.10 a thermal unit. 

 

U.S. Stock Movers 

BlackRock Inc traded nearly unchanged at $670.21 after the financial services company reported first quarter results.  

Boeing Co declined 6.1% to $220.55 after the aerospace company said it may have to lower delivery of its 737  Max planes because of fittings used in aft fuselage made by Spirit AeroSystems. 

Boeing clarified that the "non-safety issue"  is not expected to affect the panes in service but will impact a number of undelivered planes. 

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc plunged 14.4% to $30.45 and the company said it will work with Boeing and "continue to coordinate closely with our customer to resolve this matter and minimize impacts while maintaining our focus on safety."

Earlier in the week, Boeing said it delivered 113 737 planes in the first quarter and delivered 130 commercial airplanes, including 11 787 airplanes,  in the period.  

Citigroup Inc increased 2% to $48.25 after the global bank reported first quarter revenues ahead of expectations. 

Express Inc increased 18% to 67 cents after the company and WHP Global agreed to acquire e-commerce brand Bonbons from Walmart. 

JPMorgan Chase & Co increased 5.7% to $136.32 after the New York based bank reported record revenue in its latest quarter. 

Lucid Group Inc declined 9% to $7.51 after the luxury electric vehicle maker said it delivered fewer of its sedans than it produced in the first quarter, indicating weak customer demand. 

PNC Financial Services Group increased 1.3% to $123.05 after the company reported quarterly results and recorded provision for credit losses lower than in the previous quarter. 

Wells Fargo & Co increased 4.2% to $41.30 after the California based bank reported higher-than-expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter. 

 

Monetary Pause Hopes Drive European Markets In Longest Winning Streak In Four Months 

 

Benchmark indexes in Europe extended gains after inflation indexes in France and Germany eased. 

Germany's wholesale prices index fell sharply in March and French consumer price index eased following the sharp decline in energy prices. 

Cooling inflation trends in the U.S. and Europe raised hopes that the central bankers are nearing an end to aggressive rate increase cycle and may pause after the next meeting in May. 

Singapore held its monetary policy tightening and also lowered its estimate of economic growth in 2023. 

Singapore joined other central banks in India, Australia, Canada and South Korea that already paused rate hikes. 

Stocks in the Eurozone opened higher and extended gains ahead of the start of earnings season in the U.S. and Europe. 

Investors are awaiting earnings results from U.S. banks and benchmark indexes are set for their longest weekly advance since early December. 

 

German Wholesale Inflation Fell Sharply In March 

The German wholesale price index declined for the sixth month in a row and slipped to the rate last seen in January 2021, the Federal Statistics Office or Destatis reported Friday. 

On a monthly basis, the wholesale price index increased 0.2% after rising 0.1% in February. 

Wholesale price index over the year increased 2.0% in March, slower than 8.9% in February, reflecting a sharp negative swing in energy and petrochemical related products.

Prices of materials and residues decreased 29%, petroleum products decreased 17.9% and metals and ores dropped 14.1%.  

However, prices of food, beverages and tobacco increased 16.4%, reflecting meat and meat products price increase of 20.0%, fruits, vegetables and potatoes 20% and milk and dairy products, eggs, edible oils and fats 19.6% and building materials and elements 19.8%. 

Wholesale price inflation has been on the decline after peaking at 23.6% in March 2022. 

 

French Consumer Price Inflation Slowed in March 

France's consumer price index inflation slowed to 5.7% annual rate in March, from 6.3% increase in February, the statistical office Insee reported Friday. 

The final estimate of consumer inflation was revised higher from the flash estimate of 5.6%. 

 

Indexes & Yields 

The DAX index increased 0.5% to 15,807.50, the CAC-40 index rose  0.5% to 7,519.61 and the FTSE 100 index advanced 0.4% to 7,871.91. 

The yield on 10-year German Bunds increased to 2.43%, French bonds to 2.93%, the UK gilts to 3.65% and Italian bonds to 4.29%. 

The euro inched higher to $1.106, the British pound to $1.241 and the Swiss franc to 89.31 cents. 

Brent crude oil increased 23 cents to $86.32 a barrel and the Dutch TTF natural gas eased 89 cents to 41.20 per MWh. 

 

Europe Stock Movers 

Dechra Pharmaceuticals plc soared 34% to 3,732.0 after the veterinary products maker confirmed it is in talks with private equity group EQT for a possible offer of £4.63 billion. 

Hermes International SCA increased 1.1% to €1,966.80 after the French luxury products maker said sales in the first quarter increased 22% to €3.38 billion. 

Sales in Europe increased 22.9%, Asia jumped 20.9% and in the Americas 23.9%.   

YouGov Plc increased 2.3% to 880 pence after the company appointed Steve Hatch as its next chief executive. 

TomTom NV advanced 5.3% to €8.0 after the Dutch navigation firm returned to profit in the first quarter. 

888 Holdings Plc soared 17.9% to 72.89 pence after the online sports betting and gambling company reported a double-digit increase in annual revenue. 

Group revenue in the fiscal year ending in March surged 74% to £1,238.8 million, and adjusted operating income  increased 82% to £217.9 million, including the purchase of William Hill on July 1, 2022. 

Proforma profit declined to 64 .2 million from 82.6 million and earnings per share fell to 15.1 pence from 22.2 pence a year ago, adjusting for the William Hill transaction. 

 

Asian Markets Traded Higher Following U.S. Gains

Asian markets traded higher following overnight gains in the U.S. after inflation and rate-hike worries eased.

On Thursday wholesale price index and on Wednesday consumer price index showed waning inflation pressures, reflecting volatile but falling energy prices.  

Wholesale price inflation index unexpectedly fell in March and consumer price index declined for the ninth month in a row.  

Asian markets track Wall Street swings as the region's export driven economies rely on the market developments in the world's largest economy.

Investors are hoping that the two inflation reports this week may convince the Federal Reserve to pause future rate hikes after the next meeting in early May.

 

Singapore Left Currency Band Unrevised

The Monetary Authority  of Singapore left its key lending rate unrevised after five interest rate hikes in a row since October 2021.

MAS maintains an indirect control on its interest rate by widening or tightening the currency band, known as Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$Neer).

MAS said it will retain its current rate of currency appreciation, which will help the nation pay for pricier imports but also keeping the current exchange rate in place will not impact its ability to export.

After the MAS policy announcement, the Singapore dollar declined as much as 0.5% but managed to recover to $1.325.

Singapore's economy expanded only 0.1% in the first quarter on an annual basis after rising at 2.1% in the final quarter of 2022, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said Friday.

The ministry also lowered its estimate of annual economic growth in 2023 by 0.5 percentage point to 2.5%, from 3.6% in the previous year.

The MAS also left its 2023 estimate of core inflation, which excludes housing and private transportation, between 3.5% and 4.5% and overall inflation between 5.5% and 6.5%.  

 

Asian Indexes & Yields

Stocks in Tokyo advanced following the gains in overnight trading in New York but markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong were muted.

The Nikkei index increased 1.1% to 28,462.21, the Hang Seng Index added 0.2% to 20,391.29 and the SSE Composite index advanced 0.5% to 3,334.17.

Financial markets in India were closed for Ambedkar Jayanti.

 

Asia Stock Movers

Stocks in Hong Kong lacked direction but funds controlled by mainland China added exposure to large tech companies.

BYD, Geely Auto, HSBC and Alibaba Group added between 0.5% and 1.5% but Tencent Holdings fell 0.2%, JD.com declined 1.5% and Baidu fell 4.1%.

Mainland China controlled funds increased their exposure to Hong Kong listed stocks for the tenth week in a row, adding $10 billion of stocks according to the data available from Stock Connect.

Fast Retailing Company Limited soared 8.5% to ¥32,840.00 after the parent of Uniqlo reported operating profit in the first-half to February jumped to ¥220 billion from ¥189 billion a year ago.

The retailer also lifted its full-year profit estimate to ¥360 billion from ¥350 billion forecast in January.

Infosys Limited declined 8.2% to $15.69 in New York trading after the India-based global tech services provider reported weaker-than-expected quarterly results.

Revenue in the March quarter increased 6.4% to $4.6 billion and net income declined to $744 million from $752 million and diluted earnings per share held at 18 cents.

For the fiscal year 2023 ending in March, revenue increased 11.7% to $18.2 billion and net income was stable at $2.9 billion and diluted earnings per share was 71 cents compared to 70 cents a year ago.

The company guided fiscal year 2024 revenue to rise between 4% and 7% in constant currency and operating margin between 20% and 22%.