Investors Face New Reality of Downward Earnings Revisions

Barry Adams
08 Feb, 2023
New York City

Market indexes closed down and wiped off previous day's gains after investors assessed earnings from 150 companies. 

Investors are recalibrating earnings hope for the rest of the year after more companies report earnings decline or meet lowered estimates. 

With rate worries still in the background, investors are revising lower earnings estimates for 2023 after companies report negative impacts of macroeconomic headwinds, stronger dollar and restrained consumer spending. 

Market jitters were in full display as investors reacted to corporate earnings and investors remained divided about the future direction and levels of interest rates. 

Moreover, tech stocks faced another bout of volatility after Google's parent Alphabet declined 7% on the rising competition in the artificial intelligence space. 

The S&P 500 index decreased 1.1% to 4,117.86 and the S&P 500 index fell 1.7% to 11,910.52. 

Crude oil increased $1.11 to $78.25 a barrel and natural gas fell 16 cents to $2.41 a thermal unit. 

The yield on 2-year Treasury notes increased to 4.43%, 10-year Treasury notes inched higher to 3.65% and 30-year Treasury bonds rose to 3.67%. 

 

Mortgage Applications Volume Rebound

Mortgage applications increased 7.4% in the week ending on February 3, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly mortgage applications survey.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 8% on an unadjusted basis.  

The Refinance Index increased 18 % from the previous week but plunged 75% from the previous year. 

“Applications rose last week as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched lower to 6.18%, its fifth consecutive weekly decline. 

The 30-year fixed rate is almost a percentage point below its recent high of 7.16% in October 2022,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

 

U.S. Movers 

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc declined 4.2% to $1,650 after the company reported lower-than-expected growth in same store sales, earnings and revenue.   

Comparable store sales rose 5.6% and in-restaurant sales rose 17.5% and digital sales were 37.4% of food and beverage revenue. Opened 100 new restaurants with 90 locations including a Chipotlane.

Chipotle Mexican Grill said revenue in the fourth quarter rose 11.2% to $2.2 billion and net income jumped to $223.7 million from $133.5 million and diluted EPS rose to $8.02 from $4.69 a year ago.

Uber Technologies Inc rose 7.2% to $37.45 after the digital ride-hailing service provider forecasted gross booking to accelerate in the first quarter.  

Uber said revenue in the fourth quarter rose 49% to $8.6 billion and net income fell 33% to $595 million from $892 million and diluted EPS declined to 29 cents from 44 cents a year ago.

 

European Indexes Climb After Rate and Earnings Anxieties Recede

European markets rebounded and the euro held stable after Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded less hawkish in recent comments on Tuesday. 

Cautious trading supported tentative market rebound and investors reacted to a fresh batch of corporate earnings. 

 

French Employment Growth Paused In Fourth Quarter

Private payroll employment was stable in the fourth quarter, following a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter, the statistical office INSEE said Wednesday.

Employment was stable after seven consecutive quarters of increase. 

Net salaried job additions increased 3,000 in the fourth quarter following 119,100 jobs or 0.6% in the preceding quarter. 

Private payroll employment surpassed the level seen at the end of 2021 by 1.5% or 304,900 jobs.

Temporary jobs increased 0.8% or 6,500 jobs after 1.9% or 14,900 in the previous quarter. 

The temporary employment level is 4.5% higher than its pre-crisis level but 1.6% lower than its end-2021 level.

 

Italian Retail Sales Declined In December 

Italian retail sales declined 0.2% in December on the month, reversing the 0.8% rise in November, the statistical office ISTAT data showed on Wednesday. 

Retail sales rose 3.4% in December from a year ago, slower than 4.4% pace in November but sales have been rising since March 2021. 

Overall 2022 retail sales value increased 4.6% from the previous year but sales volume fell 0.8%  on a 4.2% drop in food goods, by a 1.9% rise in non-food products. 

 

European Indexes 

The DAX index increased 0.8% to 15,446.28, the CAC-40 index rose 0.2% to 7,145.44 and the FTSE 100 index added 0.5% to 7,906.91. 

The euro inched lower to $1.072, the British pound edged down to $1.205 and the Swiss franc traded near 92.12 U.S. cents. 

Brent crude oil rose 28 cents to $83.97 a barrel and the Dutch TTF Spot Price decreased 3.4% to 53.50 per MWh. 

 

Europe Stock Movers 

ABN Amro Bank NV jumped 11.5% to €16.30 after the Dutch bank announced a stock repurchase program. 

Operating income in the fourth quarter declined 19% to €1.86 billion from €2.28 billion a year ago. 

Net income in the quarter dropped 36% to €354 million from €552 million and diluted earnings per share declined to 37 euro cents from 56 euro cents a year ago. 

The Dutch bank proposed to pay 67 cents per share as a final dividend equivalent to €601 million to shareholders on record on April 24 and payable on May 17, reflecting a total dividend of 99 cents for 2022. 

The company proposed a new stock repurchase plan of €500 million commencing from February 9th and ending no later than June 2023. 

Societe Generale SA declined 4.7% to €26.71 after the French bank said net income in the fourth quarter declined 35.1% to Є1.16 billion from Є1.79 billion in the previous year. 

TotalEnergies SE declined 1.2% to €56.83 after the French energy giant said earnings in the fourth quarter dropped 44% to $3.3 billion. 

Ashmore Group Plc rose 2.4% to  279.51 pence after the UK-based asset manager reported a sharply lower half-year profit. 

In the first-half ending in December. assets under management declined 34% to $57 billion from $87 million in the previous year. 

Adjusted net revenue in the first-half declined 22% to £107.7 million from £138.2 million a year ago. 

After-tax profit declined 54% to £44.3 million from £95.4 million and earnings per share declined 6.1 pence from 13.3 pence in the previous year. 

Smurfit Kappa Group fell 2.8% to 3,389.50 pence after the paper-based packaging company reported an increase in profit in 2022 but unit volumes declined. 

Revenue in the second-half increased 18% to €6.43 billion and pre-tax income increased 5% to €524 million from €500 million a year ago. 

Full-year 2022 revenue increased 27% to €12.8 billion and pre-tax increased 42% to €1.29 billion from €913 million a year ago. 

Earnings per share rose to €3.65 from €2.63 in the previous year. 

The paper company also reported a decline in box volume in 2022 by less than 2% following higher prices and tough comparison in the previous year.  

 

Japan's Current Account Surplus Halves 

Asian markets closed mixed amid rising tensions between the U.S. and China. 

The Nikkei 225 index declined 0.3% to 27,606.46 and the yen weakened 30 cents to 130.35 against the U.S. dollar. 

Japan's current account surplus was cut in half after soaring costs of energy imports overwhelmed the return on foreign investments held by Japanese corporations, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday. 

Current account surplus in 2022 declined by ¥10.15 trillion to ¥11.44 trillion or $87 billion. 

Japan’s trade deficit was ¥15.78 trillion after imports soared 42% to ¥114.47 trillion, faster than the 19.9% rise in exports to ¥98.69 trillion, according to the preliminary data from the ministry. 

 

China-U.S. Tensions Remain Elevated 

China market indexes closed down on the worries that the escalating tensions with the U.S. may overshadow trade flows between two nations. 

China refused the U.S. request to schedule a conference call between defense chiefs and the U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer described the state of bilateral relations "tense." 

Schumer added that the Biden administration is looking for additional measures after shooting down the alleged Chinese spy balloon.  

The Shanghai Composite index declined 0.5% to 3,232.11 and the Hang Seng index edged lower 15.18 points to 21,283.52. 

The Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.79 against the U.S. dollar. 

 

Reserve Bank of India Hikes Rates 

The Reserve Bank of India raised its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% as widely expected, the sixth rate hike in a row. 

The central bank has raised rates by 250 basis points since May 2022 and lifted the rate to the levels not seen since January 2019. 

The Sensex index increased 0.6% or 377.75 points to 60,663.79 and the Nifty index added 0.9% or 150.25 points to  17,871.70. 

The Indian rupee edged lower to 82.62 against the U.S. dollar.