Mexico Leads Emerging Markets Sell-Off

123jump.com Staff
07 Apr, 2006
New York City

Emerging markets in Asia continued their advance for the day and for the week. Latin markets closed the volatile week on the downside. Indonesia, India, Philippines and Hong Kong rose for the week. India added 8% in less than ten trading days. Thailand recovered from the election worries. In Latin America Mexico lost 2% and Brazil and Venezuela lost close to 1%.

[R]3:45PM Latin Markets correct sharply. Asian Market scale new highs.[/R]
Emerging markets in Asia continued their ascent but in Latin America faced a sell-off. Indonesia led the advancing markets with a rise of 0.6% and the main index rising to 1,363 up 8 points. Thailand and Taiwan rose 0.3% and Hong Kong and Singapore rose 0.4% at close.

For the week most of the markets in Asia enjoyed better than 1% gains with Indonesia and India up 4%. Philippines, India and Indonesia are trading near al-time record and Hong Kong and South Korea index is trading at five and three year high levels. In Indonesia, Cemex proposed to sell its entire holding of 25% in the largest local cement company Semen Gresik. Hong Kong stocks up 60 points to 16,471 on 1.6% rise in China Mobile and local railroad operator MTR up 3.6% on merger news with smaller rail operator. China Construction Bank lost 4% on lower 2005 earnings.

With the prospect of higher interest rate in the U.S. and profit taking in the local market indexes in Latin America faced a sharp correction. IPC Index in Mexico lost 2% and Bovespa in Brazil lost 0.92% at close. Argentina and Chile lost 0.7% and 0.46% respectively. Coca Cola Femsa, beverage maker, lost more than 1% on broker downgrade on valuation. In Brazil Petrobraslost 0.8%, Embrear down 0.4% and CVRD lost 0.1%.


[R]2:00PM Market averages turned negative on profit taking.[/R]
Market turned negative in the afternoon as traders booked profit and oil and gold declined. Starbucks ((SBUX)) rose 2% as it reported March same-store sales rise of 10% and total sales rise of 24% for the five weeks ended on April 2nd. Starbucks stock is up 80% in the last five months of trading. Fast food drive-in restaurant chain operator rose 0.5% on the news that the company has declared 3 for 2 split and has nearly tripled its stock buy back program to $110 from $34 million. Research In Motion ((RIMM)) maker of BlackBerry device reported 65 cents per share and missed estimate of 67 cents. Higher legal bills stemming from patent dispute and competitors making inroads in the marketplace affected the quarterly performance.

Constellation Brands reported sale of 24 cents vs. 20 cents a year ago on revenue growth of 1% or constant dollar revenue growth of 4%. A jump of 16% in beer and spirit sales was off-set by 3% decline in wine sales. The company stock traded 5% lower at mid-day.

Brazilian paper pulp maker, Aracruz Celulose ((ARA)) rose 0.5% on Q1 earnings of $1.38 vs. 89 cents a year ago. The paper pulp inventories are at the lowest level in Europe in years. In North America 0.6 million tons of production capacities has closed in 2005 and additional 1.1 million tons capacity is likely to be closed. Chinese consumption of pulp has been rising at more than 20% a year and global demand supply situation is likely to remain tight.

[R]12:30PM European markets finished in the red.[/R]
European markets finished in the negative, giving up earlier gains on the back of upbeat U.S. employment report. However, stocks quickly erased most of the week’s gains as investors turned to profit taking, following U.S. markets trading mode. The biggest decliners were metals and auto stocks, while oil companies like Total and BP advanced after UBS upgraded the sector to overweight. The German DAX 30 dropped 1.3 %, the French CAC 40 fell 0.9%, and London FTSE 100 lost 0.3%.

Crude oil prices retreated on profit taking. Light sweet crude May delivery fell 85 cents to $67.09 a barrel. Gasoline futures lost 3 cents to $1.9639 a gallon, while heating oil dropped 3 cents to $1.8660. Natural gas futures slipped 16 cents to $6.815 per 1,000 cubic feet. London Brent slid 87 cents to $66.97. European gold retreated from 25-year highs. In London gold traded at $587.30 per troy ounce, down from $593. In Zurich the precious metal fell to $587.10 from $593.60. In Hong Kong gold rose $1.35 to 596.15. Silver fell to $11.90 from $12. The U.S. dollar advanced versus major currencies. The euro traded at $1.2127, down from $1.2227. The dollar bought 117.86, up from 117.64. The British pound was quoted at $1.7418, down from $1.7524.


[R]11:30AM Stocks lost ground in late morning.[/R]
After the initial strength, stocks turned lower and the major averages fell below the flat line with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 turning negative after hitting multi-year intraday highs. In early trading market sentiment was boosted a Labor Department report which showed better-than-expected March employment growth and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. However, market failed to overcome lingering concerns about higher interest rates and major indices slipped in the red. The downward trend was also contributed by profit taking and a notable increase in treasury yields. Benchmark 10-year notes fell for a yield of 4.94% compared with 4.90% late on Thursday. The Dow Jones fell 0.24%, the S&P 500 was down 37%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.29%.

Commodities prices steeply fell, inspiring traders to lock in recent gains. Gold stocks posted significant losses due to a sharp drop in the price of the precious metal. Utility stocks were also weak in morning trading, dragging the Dow Jones Utilities Average down 1.5%. Profit taking caused some weakness among technology stocks with semiconductor stocks moving notably to the downside after turning in some of the market''s best performances yesterday. Among tech stocks, Research in Motion ((RIMM)) was a conspicuous loser, falling 3.7% after the company forecast weaker than expected first quarter results.

[R]10:30AM Stocks rose. The Nasdaq hit a five-year high.[/R]
Stocks traded higher with the early strength largely contributed to the highly anticipated March employment report, which showed robust employment growth and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. In morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 12.64, or 0.11%. The S&P’s 500 index was off 0.15, or 0.01% and the Nasdaq composite index rose 3.90, or 0.17%, a new five-year high. Bonds posted a second day of declines, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rising to 4.92% from 4.89% late Thursday.

In early trading, housing stocks advanced, with the Housing Sector Index up 0.9%, offsetting the loss that it posted on Thursday. HMO, consumer discretionary, and defense stocks also show notable gains. Among defense stocks, shares of Esterline Technologies ((ESL))) rose 6.1% after the Credit Suisse upgraded its rating on the stock to outperform from neutral. Meanwhile, gold stocks came under pressure on profit taking, following the decrease in the price of the precious metal. Profit taking also led to weakness among other metal stocks.


[R] 9:45AM Stocks opened in the positive.[/R]
Stock markets opened higher after the Labor Department data on employment offset fears of rising inflation. The report showed better than expected employment growth and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. According to the report, the job growth was concentrated in the services sector, with notable growth in the professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and health care industries.

In corporate news, shares of Research in Motion ((RIMM)) are expected to be under pressure as the wireless device maker provided disappointing Q1 guidance. After the closing bell Thursday, RIM reported adjusted Q4 earnings of 65 cents per share on revenue of $561.2 million, in line with the revised guidance of the company, but it projected Q1 adjusted earnings of 62/67 cents per share on revenue in the range of $580 to $610 million. Analysts expected profit of 76 cents per share on $625.6 million in revenue. In the opening minutes, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 7.36 at 11,223.86, the Nasdaq Composite rose 5.96 at 2,367.13 and the Standard & Poor''s 500 index inched up .83 to 1,309.87.


[R]9:15AM Stock futures indicated robust start on jobs data.[/R]
Stock futures indicated a strong market opening on easing inflation concerns, following a government report which showed payrolls increased in March while wage growth moderated. One of the most closely watched economic reports showed that U.S. employers added 211,000 nonfarm jobs in March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly slipped back to a 4-1/2-year low 4.7%. Wage growth came in below expectations, as average hourly earnings rose 0.2% compared with the 0.3% rise expected by economists. S&P 500 futures were up 4 points, above fair value. Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 33 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 7.25 points.

Crude oil prices retreated on profit-taking after recent gains and news that Nigeria will restore normal oil output. Light sweet crude May delivery dropped 69 cents to $67.25 a barrel. London Brent dropped 58 cents to $67.26. European gold hit a 25-year high on speculations metals will deliver better profits than stocks and bonds. In London gold for immediate delivery rose $2.96 to trade at $598.27 per troy ounce. Silver for immediate delivery gained 8 cents to trade at $12.22. The U.S. dollar advanced versus major currencies ahead of jobs report. The euro traded at $1.2190, down from $1.2227. The dollar bought 117.67, up from 117.64. The British pound was quoted at $1.7499, down from $1.7524.

[R]Robust employment growth. Unexpected drop in employment rate.[/R]
The Department of Labor released its highly anticipated March employment report before the start of trading on Friday, showing better than expected employment growth and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. The report said that non-farm payroll employment increased by 211,000 in March following a downwardly revised increase of 225,000 in February. Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs compared to the increase of 243,000 originally reported for February.

The Labor Department said that the job growth was concentrated in the services sector, with notable growth in the professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, retail trade, and health care industries. Manufacturing employment fell by 5,000 jobs over the month. Additionally, the report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in March from 4.8 percent in February, surprising economists who had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. With the decrease, the unemployment rate matches a 4-1/2 year low.

Prior to the release of the report, there was some concern that stronger than expected job growth could raise concerns that a tight labor market would lead to higher wages and higher inflation. However, the report offset some of these concerns, as it showed that average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2 percent in March following a 0.4 percent increase in February. Economists had expected hourly wage growth of 0.3 percent.

Lazare Kaplan International Inc., ((LKI)), jewelry retailer, reported Q3 earnings of 6 cents a share, down from a profit of 12 cents a share year-ago despite sales growth in Q3 to $157.9 million from $120 million in the year-ago period.

AZZ incorporated, ((AZZ)), a manufacturer of electrical products reported unaudited financial results for Q4. Net income advanced 78% to 45 cents per share, up from a net income of 26 cents per share in the year-ago period on 33% revenue growth. Backlog at the end of Q4 was $73.8 million, compared to $64.8 million for the same period a year ago. Incoming orders for Q4 came to $40.9 million while shipments for the quarter came to $50.3 million, leading to a book to ship ratio of 81 % for Q4.


[R]8:45 AM Volatile Sensex Index in India close lower.[/R]
Sensex Index in Mumbai, India lost 157 points or 1.3% to close at 11,589. The index is expected to cool after rising more than 8% in less than ten trading days. Sensex remained volatile for the day as market was influenced by unsubstantiated rumors. Market lost close to 1.7% by mid-morning on rumor that several institutions which including international investors have been barred from purchasing shares. Market regained most of the losses by mid-afternoon but lost 157 points in the last half hour trading. For the day Sensex oscillated for 366 points or 3%.

Large caps mostly traded down, up and then down again. Autos, infrastructure, cement and pharma stocks declined at close. IT companies lost for the day led by a decline in Satyam Computer. Infosys rose 1% to Rs. 3,156 as the company board meets to discuss stock bonus issue on April 14th. ACC, Cement maker, rose 4.5% to Rs. 876 and traded lower from the day’s high of Rs. 918, after company denied rumors of stock split.

ACC is to lead release of earnings season for the year fiscal 2006 on April 12th. Market has discounted good earnings season for the fiscal 2006 and 2007 and market may come under heavy selling if companies fail to meet the expectations. Jet Airways rose 4% to Rs. 1,023 on large block trading of 170,000 shares. Aditya Birla Nuvo rose 6% to Rs. 610 and Indo Gulf rose 9% on the news that the merger between the two companies have been approved and schedule to complete by September 1st, 2006. Gujarat Ambuja Export rose 20% on the news that Reliance Capital Mutual Fund has bought 5 million shares. The company split 5 to 1 stock earlier in the year on robust earnings and revenue growth.

[R] 8:15 AM European averages traded flat at mid-day.[/R]
European markets traded in a tight range at mid-day, reflecting cautiousness ahead of U.S. jobs report and news that BAE Systems is selling its stake in Airbus. Aerospace company BAE Systems dropped 1.9% after it announced it is in talks to sell its 20% shareholding in plane maker Airbus to European aerospace giant EADS. The German DAX 30 inched up 0.01%, the French CAC 40 edged down 0.01%, while London FTSE 100 gained 0.3%.


[R]7:45AM Asia advanced. The Nikkei and Hang Seng hit 51/2-year highs.[/R]
Asian-Pacific benchmarks finished largely in the positive, with tech stocks tracing U.S. gains to provide a boost to the market sentiment. The Nikkei reversed from early losses to close the session up 0.4% at 17,563.37, the highest level in nearly six years. The index, which has recently been strong on fresh fund investments into blue-chip, auto and banking stocks, was supported by gains for blue-chip and tech companies. Among the leading gainers, major game maker Nintendo rose 2.8%, Kyocera was up 3.5% and Toshiba jumped higher by 2.3%. Across the region, Hong Kong''s Hang Seng advanced for a fourth consecutive session, rising 0.4% to a 51/2-year high on flows of speculative funds. Shares of China Mobile rose 1.6%. Taiwan Weighted index climbed 0.3% on strong semiconductor and tourist companies.