Market Update
New Home Sales Rebounded In January
Brian Turner
24 Feb, 2023
New York City
The sale of single-family new homes increased 7.2% from the previous month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000, the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Friday.
Home sales declined 19.4% from a year ago in January.
The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $427,500, lower than $430,000 a year ago and the average sales price was $474,400, lower than $501,200 a year ago.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of January was 439,000, representing a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate.
About 59,000 homes were sold in January compared to 47,000 in December, driven by the increase of 11,000 in the South to 41,000.
Personal Income and Spending Increased in January, Alternative Inflation Measure Accelerated
Brian Turner
24 Feb, 2023
New York City
Personal income increased 0.6% in January and disposable personal income 2.0% and personal consumption expenditures or PCE 1.8%, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.
The closely watched consumption price index, a measure of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose at a faster pace from the previous month.
The increase was the largest since August.
The PCE price index and core index excluding food and energy both accelerated to 0.6% in January compared to 0.2% and 0.4% increases in December.
On an annual basis the PCE index and core index accelerated to 5.2% and 4.7% from 5.3% and 4.6% respectively.
Personal spending jumped 1.8% in January from the previous month, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in December.
Personal spending jumped the most since March of 2021.
After adjusting for inflation or price changes, real personal spending jumped 1.1%, rebounding from a 0.3% decrease in December.
Stubborn Inflation Demands Recalibration of Investor Expectations
Barry Adams
24 Feb, 2023
New York City
Stocks accelerated decline on the final day of the week and benchmark indexes are set to report the worst weekly loss in ten weeks.
The familiar worry of rate-path drove the market sentiment after the personal consumption expenditure price index accelerated in January from the previous month and from a year ago.
The PCE index gets an outsized attention because of the Federal Reserve's use of this alternative measure of inflation.
The index generally understates by a wide margin the inflation experienced by most urban households and the increase in this index only suggested that inflationary pressures are stronger than previously estimated.
Benchmark indexes dropped between 1% and 2% on the worries that interest rates are likely to go higher and stay elevated for a longer duration.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates to restrictive level which may drive the economy into a recession.
New Home Sales Rebounded In January
The sale of single-family new homes increased 7.2% from the previous month in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 670,000, the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported Friday.
Home sales declined 19.4% from a year ago in January.
The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $427,500, lower than $430,000 a year ago and the average sales price was $474,400, lower than $501,200 a year ago.
The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of January was 439,000, representing a supply of 7.9 months at the current sales rate.
Personal Income and Spending Increased in January
Personal income increased 0.6% in January and disposable personal income 2.0% and personal consumption expenditures or PCE 1.8%, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday.
The closely watched consumption price index, a measure of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve, rose at a faster pace from the previous month.
The increase was the largest since August.
The PCE price index and core index excluding food and energy both accelerated to 0.6% in January compared to 0.2% and 0.4% increases in December.
On an annual basis the PCE index and core index accelerated to 5.2% and 4.7% from 5.3% and 4.6% respectively.
Personal spending jumped 1.8% in January from the previous month, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.1% fall in December.
Personal spending jumped the most since March of 2021.
After adjusting for inflation or price changes, real personal spending jumped 1.1%, rebounding from a 0.3% decrease in December.
Bond Yields Advanced, Stock Indexes Dipped
The S&P 500 index decreased 1.2% to 3,962.55 and the Nasdaq Composite index declined 1.8% to 11,381.63.
For the week, the S&P 500 index is set close down nearly 3% and the Nasdaq Composite index is likely to close down at 3.5% and book a second weekly loss in the last three weeks.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes increased to 4.83%, 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.96% and 30-year Treasury bonds 3.90%.
Crude oil increased 70 cents to $76.10 a barrel and natural gas futures added 8 cents to $2.50 a thermal unit.
U.S. Stock Movers
Carvana Company dropped 16.5% to $8.40 after the used car dealer reported a sharp fall in revenue and a surge in loss in its latest quarter.
Carvana said operating revenue in the fourth quarter plunged to $2.8 billion from $3.7 billion in the previous year.
Net loss in the period surged to $809 million from $89 million or diluted loss per share rose to $7.61 from $1.02 a year ago.
Wayfair Inc fell 1.7% to $37.69 after the company reported a decline in sales and larger loss in its latest quarter.
Wayfair said revenue in the fourth quarter decreased 4.6% to $3.1 billion and net loss expanded to $351 million from $202 million and diluted loss per share rose to $3.26 from $1.92 a year ago.
Movers: Carvana, Mercado Libre, Mister Car Wash, Morningstar, Planet Fitness, Sweetgreen, Wayfair
Scott Peters
24 Feb, 2023
New York City
Carvana Company dropped 16.5% to $8.40 after the used car dealer reported a sharp fall in revenue and a surge in loss in its latest quarter.
Carvana said operating revenue in the fourth quarter plunged to $2.8 billion from $3.7 billion in the previous year.
Net loss in the period surged to $809 million from $89 million or diluted loss per share rose to $7.61 from $1.02 a year ago.
In 2022, operating revenue increased to $13.6 billion from $12.8 billion and net loss surged to $1.6 billion from $135 million or diluted loss per share increased to $15.74 from $1.63 in the previous year.
MercadoLibre Inc fell 0.7% to $1,128.45 after the online marketplace operator swung to profit in its latest quarter.
MercadoLibre Inc said revenue in the fourth quarter increased to $3.0 billion from $2.1 billion a year ago.
The company swung to a profit of $165 million from a loss of $46 million and diluted earnings per share was $3.25 compared to a loss of 92 cents in the previous year.
Mister Car Wash Inc fell 0.8% to $9.17 after the company said net income declined in its latest quarter on higher operating expenses.
In the quarter, the car wash services provider added 24,000 net new members and increased its total membership to 1.88 million, 13.8% higher than a year ago.
Unlimited Wash Club sales represented approximately 71% of total wash sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to approximately 67% in the corresponding period a year ago.
Mister Car Wash said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 12% to $214.3 million and comparable sales increase slowed to 4.0% from 14.6% a year ago.
Net income plunged to $17.7 million from $37.2 million and diluted earnings per share dropped to 5 cents from 11 cents a year ago.
In 2022, revenue increased 15.6% to $876.5 million and the company swung to a net income of $112.9 million from a loss of $22 million and diluted EPS was 34 cents from a loss of 8 cents in the previous year.
Morningstar, Inc declined 14.2% to $202.27 after the financial data and information provider reported a sharp fall in earnings in its latest quarter.
Morningstar said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 2.8% to $475 million and net income plunged 94% to $3.3 million from $56.5 million and diluted earnings per share dropped to 8 cents from $1.30 a year ago.
In 2022, revenue increased 10.1% to $1.87 billion and net income dropped 63.5% to $70.5 million from $193.3 million and diluted earnings per share declined to $1.64 from $4.45 in the previous year.
Planet Fitness Inc decreased 4.0% to $80.06 despite the company reporting higher revenue and earnings.
Planet Fitness said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 53.2% to $281.3 million and net income increased to $33.6 million from $5.7 million and diluted earnings per share rose to 40 cents from 7 cents a year ago.
In 2022, total revenue increased to $936.7million from $587 million and net income rose to $110.4 million from $46.1 million and diluted earnings per share increased to $1.18 from 51 cents a year ago.
Sweetgreen, Inc declined 1.4% to $9.18 after the salad chain operator reported a sharp slowdown in same store sales growth.
Sweetgreen said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 23% to $118.6 million and same store sales slowed to 4% from 36% in the previous year.
Net loss shrank to $49.3 million from $66.2 million and diluted loss per share fell to 44 cents from $1.14 a year ago.
Wayfair Inc fell 1.7% to $37.69 after the company reported a decline in sales and larger loss in its latest quarter.
Wayfair said revenue in the fourth quarter decreased 4.6% to $3.1 billion and net loss expanded to $351 million from $202 million and diluted loss per share rose to $3.26 from $1.92 a year ago.
In 2022, total revenue decreased to $12..2 billion from $13.7 billion and net loss increased to $1.3 billion from $131 million or diluted loss per share expanded to $12.54 from $1.26 in the previous year.
Active customers in 2022 declined to 22 million from 27 million in 2021 and average order size increased to $305 from $265 respectively.
Wall Street Struggled to Shake Off Rate-path Worries
Barry Adams
23 Feb, 2023
New York City
Stocks rebounded from the lows of the session and closed higher as rate-path worries dominated market sentiment.
Fed minutes did little to dispel the market worries of rate hikes as policymakers favored higher rates despite the easing of inflation in the last six months.
The Federal Reserve has lifted rates eight times in the last twelve months but inflation is well entrenched and showing no signs of trending towards the Fed's target rate of 2.0%.
The initial surge in inflation was rooted in the surge in crude oil prices in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but inflation has spread from goods to services and now to wages.
Wage inflation has lagged overall inflation for years but employers are more than willing to offer higher wages in the current economic environment of tight labor market conditions.
Investors are hoping that higher inflation base may eventually bring inflation to the 2.0% level if energy prices stay near $70 a barrel and supply chains remain intact as Chinese economic activities return to pre-covid levels.
With no end in sight of the war between NATO and Russia in Ukraine, the future price of energy may dictate the inflation trend in the year ahead.
Corporate earnings so far have been a mixed bag with more companies reporting falling earnings and lowering expectations in the current year.
U.S. Indexes and Yields
The S&P 500 index increased 0.5% to 4,012.32 and the Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.7% to 11,590.40.
The yield on 2-year Treasury notes closed at 4.70%, 10-year notes at 3.89% and 30-year Treasury bonds at 3.89%.
The yield on 6-month and 0ne-year Treasury bills closed at 5.0%, the level last seen in December 2006.
Natural Gas Hovers Near 3-decade Low
Crude oil rose $1.44 to $75.39 a barrel and natural gas futures increased 18 cents to $2.35 a thermal unit.
Natural gas futures rebounded above $2 level but not far from a three-decade intra-day low of $1.96 on Wednesday.
Natural gas demand is lower than usual on warmer-than-usual weather conditions and weakening demand from Europe on elevated storage levels.
U.S. Fourth Quarter Economic Growth Revised Lower
Real gross domestic product expanded at a slower pace than previously estimated in the fourth quarter.
GDP in the fourth quarter rose at an annual pace of 2.7%, lower than previously estimated 2.9% pace, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday.
In the third quarter, real GDP increased at 3.2%.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending.
The changes were partly offset by an increase in private inventory investment, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an acceleration in federal government spending.
For the full-year 2022, real GDP growth was unrevised at the pace of 2.1% from 5.9% in 2021.
U.S. Stock Movers
Dollar General Corp declined 4.5% to $215.0 after the discount retailer lowered its comparable sales and diluted earnings per share estimate for the fiscal year.
The company blamed the shortfall on higher-than-expected inventory damages and lower-than-expected sales because of Winter Storm Elliott during the fourth quarter.
Dollar General Corp lowered its same store sales increase estimate for the fiscal year ending on February 3 to 4.3% from the previous estimate towards the upper end of the range between 4.0% and 4.5%.
The discount retailer lowered its diluted earnings per share growth in the range of approximately 4.5% to 5.0%, compared to its previous estimate between 7% and 8%.
Domino's Pizza Inc dropped 12.7% to $304.27 after the food service company lowered its sales and unit growth outlook.
Domino's Pizza said fourth quarter revenue increased 3.6% to $1.39 billion and same store sales at the U.S. company owned and franchised stores increased 0.9% and international stores rose 2.6%.
Net income in the fourth quarter increased to $158.3 million from $155.7 million and diluted earnings per share rose to $4.43 from $4.25 a year ago.
The company lowered its global sales outlook over the next two-to-three years to between 4% and 8% from the previous estimate between 6% and 10%.
The company also guided down global net unit growth in the range between 5.% and 7% from the previous range between 6% and 8% in the corresponding period.
The company also announced a 10% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.21 per share to shareholders of record as of March 15 to be paid on March 30.
European Markers Halt 2-day Slide
European market indexes closed higher after two days of declines after investors bid up energy and tech stocks.
ASM International, BE Semiconductor and Aixtron advanced between 1% and 3% after Nvidia Corp estimated higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter.
Energy explorers traded higher after crude oil prices rebounded and natural gas prices hovered near recent lows.
Markets were cautious and inflation and rate worries dominated trading sentiment after the U.S. Fed meeting minutes showed policymakers commitment to increase rates until the inflation is on a sustainable downward path.
Inflation worries in the region also overshadowed market sentiment after the Euro Area inflation was slightly revised higher in January.
Euro Are January Inflation Revised Higher
The Euro Area inflation rate was revised higher in January, although the inflation slowed for the third month in a row, the rate remained elevated, Eurostat reported Thursday.
Inflation in January was upwardly revised to 8.5% from the previous estimate of 8.5% but lower than 9.2% in December, the statistical office of the European Union reported.
On a monthly basis the harmonized index of consumer prices declined 0.2% in January compared to the previous estimate of 0.4% decline.
Core inflation rate excluding food, alcohol, energy and tobacco increased to 5.3% in January from 5.2% in December.
The three countries with the lowest annual inflation rates were Luxembourg (5.8%), Spain (5.9%) and Cyprus and Malta (both 6.8%).
The three countries with the highest annual inflation rates were Hungary (26.2%), Latvia (21.4%) and Czechia (19.1%).
Turkey Lowered Key Lending Rate
Turkey's central bank lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points, in an attempt to support the economy in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake.
The central bank lowered its key lending rate to 8.5% from 9.0% after holding rates for two months in a row.
The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey held its key lending rate at 9.0% in January after inflation eased to a nine-month low of 64% from 85.0% in the previous month.
"While the earthquake is expected to affect economic activity in the near term, it is anticipated that it will not have a permanent impact on performance of the Turkish economy in the medium term.
While the share of sustainable components of economic growth increases, the stronger than expected contribution of tourism revenues to the current account balance continues throughout the year.
On the other hand, domestic consumption demand, high level of energy prices and the weak economic activity in main trade partners keep the risks on current account balance alive," noted the CBRT in a statement released Thursday.
European Markets and Yields
The DAX index increased 0.5% to 15,475.69, the CAC-40 index rose 0.3% to 7,317.43 and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.3% to 7,907.72.
The yield on 10-year German Bunds inched lower to 2.47%, French bonds edged lower to 2.96%, the UK Gilts declined 3.59% and Italian bonds fell to 4.37%.
The euro hovered near $1.059, the British pound traded near $1.202 and the Swiss franc traded higher to 93.35 U.S. cents.
Brent crude oil rebounded $1.61 to $82.21 a barrel and the Dutch TTF natural gas prices inched slightly higher to Є50.72 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Essilor Luxottica SA declined 4.3% to €167.15 after the Franco-Italian eyewear maker reported an increase in fourth quarter earnings.
Stocks turned lower on the company's cautious outlook for 2023.
The company reiterated its target "of mid-single-digit annual revenue growth from 2022 to 2026 at constant exchange rates and estimated an adjusted operating profit as a percentage of revenue in the range of 19% to 20% by the end of that period.
AXA SA increased 3.2% to €28.71 after the France-based property insurance company announced a stock repurchase plan.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 2% to €102 billion and underlying earnings per share increased 12% to €3.08 from a year ago.
The insurance group also announced a stock repurchase program of up to 1.1 billion.
WPP Plc increased 3.3% to 1,049.94 pence after the UK-based advertising company forecasted higher than expected in the year ahead.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 12.7% to 14.4 billion and profit before-tax increased 22% to 1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased to 61.2 pence from 52.5 pence a year ago.
The advertising agency estimated comparable sales in 2023 to increase between 3% and 5%, slower than 6.7% in 2022 but ahead of expectations.
The company also guided operating margin in 2023 to improve to 15% from 13.5% in 2022.
Rolls Royce Holdings Plc soared 20.5% to 129.73 pence after the aerospace and defense company reported higher-than-expected earnings.
The defense contractor and power systems maker guided underlying operating profit in 2023 between £0.8 billion and £1.0 billion and free cash flow between £0.6 billion and £0.8 billion.
Total revenue in 2022 increased to £13.5 billion from £11.2 billion and pre-tax loss increased to £1.5 billion from £294 million in the previous year.
Europe Movers: AXA, Essilor Luxottica, Rolls Royce, WPP
Bridgette Randall
23 Feb, 2023
Frankfurt
Essilor Luxottica SA declined 4.3% to €167.15 after the Franco-Italian eyewear maker reported an increase in fourth quarter earnings.
Revenue in 2022 increased 13.9% to Є24.4 billion and net income increased 20.9% to Є3.0 billion from the previous year.
The company proposed to increased dividend by 29% to Є3.23 a share.
Stocks turned lower on the company's cautious outlook for 2023.
The company reiterated its target "of mid-single-digit annual revenue growth from 2022 to 2026 at constant exchange rates and estimated an adjusted operating profit as a percentage of revenue in the range of 19% to 20% by the end of that period.
AXA SA increased 3.2% to €28.71 after the France-based property insurance company announced a stock repurchase plan.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 2% to €102 billion and underlying earnings per share increased 12% to €3.08 from a year ago.
The underlying earnings increased 4% to Є7.3 billion but net income declined 11% to Є6.7 billion reflecting a decline in invested asset valuations and write-off of goodwill linked to Russia-based Reso Garantia.
The insurance group also announced a stock repurchase program of up to 1.1 billion.
WPP Plc increased 3.3% to 1,049.94 pence after the UK-based advertising company forecasted higher than expected in the year ahead.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 12.7% to 14.4 billion and profit before-tax increased 22% to 1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased to 61.2 pence from 52.5 pence a year ago.
The advertising agency estimated comparable sales in 2023 to increase between 3% and 5%, slower than 6.7% in 2022 but ahead of expectations.
The company also guided operating margin in 2023 to improve to 15% from 13.5% in 2022.
Rolls Royce Holdings Plc soared 20.5% to 129.73 pence after the aerospace and defense company reported higher-than-expected earnings.
The defense contractor and power systems maker guided underlying operating profit in 2023 between £0.8 billion and £1.0 billion and free cash flow between £0.6 billion and £0.8 billion.
Total revenue in 2022 increased to £13.5 billion from £11.2 billion and pre-tax loss increased to £1.5 billion from £294 million in the previous year.
The company swung to a loss per share of 14.4 pence from 1.48 pence in the previous year.
Net debt declined to £3.2 billion at the end of 2022 from £5.2 billion at the end of 2021.
European Indexes Halt 2-day Slide, Turkey Lowered Key Rate
Bridgette Randall
23 Feb, 2023
Frankfurt
European market indexes closed higher after two days of declines after investors bid up energy and tech stocks.
ASM International, BE Semiconductor and Aixtron advanced between 1% and 3% after Nvidia Corp estimated higher-than-expected sales in the first quarter.
Energy explorers traded higher after crude oil prices rebounded and natural gas prices hovered near recent lows.
Markets were cautious and inflation and rate worries dominated trading sentiment after the U.S. Fed meeting minutes showed policymakers commitment to increase rates until the inflation is on a sustainable downward path.
Inflation worries in the region also overshadowed market sentiment after the Euro Area inflation was slightly revised higher in January.
Euro Are January Inflation Revised Higher
The Euro Area inflation rate was revised higher in January, although the inflation slowed for the third month in a row, the rate remained elevated, Eurostat reported Thursday.
Inflation in January was upwardly revised to 8.5% from the previous estimate of 8.5% but lower than 9.2% in December, the statistical office of the European Union reported.
On a monthly basis the harmonized index of consumer prices declined 0.2% in January compared to the previous estimate of 0.4% decline.
Core inflation rate excluding food, alcohol, energy and tobacco increased to 5.3% in January from 5.2% in December.
The three countries with the lowest annual inflation rates were Luxembourg (5.8%), Spain (5.9%) and Cyprus and Malta (both 6.8%).
The three countries with the highest annual inflation rates were Hungary (26.2%), Latvia (21.4%) and Czechia (19.1%).
Turkey Lowered Key Lending Rate
Turkey's central bank lowered its key lending rate by 50 basis points, in an attempt to support the economy in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake.
The central bank lowered its key lending rate to 8.5% from 9.0% after holding rates for two months in a row.
The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey held its key lending rate at 9.0% in January after inflation eased to a nine-month low of 64% from 85.0% in the previous month.
"While the earthquake is expected to affect economic activity in the near term, it is anticipated that it will not have a permanent impact on performance of the Turkish economy in the medium term.
While the share of sustainable components of economic growth increases, the stronger than expected contribution of tourism revenues to the current account balance continues throughout the year.
On the other hand, domestic consumption demand, high level of energy prices and the weak economic activity in main trade partners keep the risks on current account balance alive," noted the CBRT in a statement released Thursday.
European Markets and Yields
The DAX index increased 0.5% to 15,475.69, the CAC-40 index rose 0.3% to 7,317.43 and the FTSE 100 index declined 0.3% to 7,907.72.
The yield on 10-year German Bunds inched lower to 2.47%, French bonds edged lower to 2.96%, the UK Gilts declined 3.59% and Italian bonds fell to 4.37%.
The euro hovered near $1.059, the British pound traded near $1.202 and the Swiss franc traded higher to 93.35 U.S. cents.
Brent crude oil rebounded $1.61 to $82.21 a barrel and the Dutch TTF natural gas prices inched slightly higher to Є50.72 per MWh.
Europe Movers
Essilor Luxottica SA declined 4.3% to €167.15 after the Franco-Italian eyewear maker reported an increase in fourth quarter earnings.
Stocks turned lower on the company's cautious outlook for 2023.
The company reiterated its target "of mid-single-digit annual revenue growth from 2022 to 2026 at constant exchange rates and estimated an adjusted operating profit as a percentage of revenue in the range of 19% to 20% by the end of that period.
AXA SA increased 3.2% to €28.71 after the France-based property insurance company announced a stock repurchase plan.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 2% to €102 billion and underlying earnings per share increased 12% to €3.08 from a year ago.
The insurance group also announced a stock repurchase program of up to 1.1 billion.
WPP Plc increased 3.3% to 1,049.94 pence after the UK-based advertising company forecasted higher than expected in the year ahead.
Gross revenue in 2022 increased 12.7% to 14.4 billion and profit before-tax increased 22% to 1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased to 61.2 pence from 52.5 pence a year ago.
The advertising agency estimated comparable sales in 2023 to increase between 3% and 5%, slower than 6.7% in 2022 but ahead of expectations.
The company also guided operating margin in 2023 to improve to 15% from 13.5% in 2022.
Rolls Royce Holdings Plc soared 20.5% to 129.73 pence after the aerospace and defense company reported higher-than-expected earnings.
The defense contractor and power systems maker guided underlying operating profit in 2023 between £0.8 billion and £1.0 billion and free cash flow between £0.6 billion and £0.8 billion.
Total revenue in 2022 increased to £13.5 billion from £11.2 billion and pre-tax loss increased to £1.5 billion from £294 million in the previous year.